Hawaii braces for major Hurricane Lowell, its third storm threat in a month

HONOLULU — Hawaii is under a state of emergency with powerful Hurricane Lowell set to bear down on its western islands Monday.

It's the third storm in as many weeks to threaten the state, as El Niño supercharges the Pacific hurricane season.

Just how bad the hurricane gets for the island chain hinges on how close it tracks to its westernmost islands of Niihau and Kauai early next week.

A shift of less than 100 miles east of its current forecast track would mean more direct impacts from a potential Category 3 hurricane. Dangerously rough seas, coastal flooding and rip currents are likely, especially for the western islands, even if that shift doesn't happen.

Hawaii Gov. Josh Green declared a state of emergency for the entire state on Thursday to free up state resources and activate Hawaii National Guard units. Six high-water vehicles are also being deployed to Kauai, he said.

Kauai County has begun clearing drainage systems and staging equipment in flood-prone areas. At least two state parks on the island are closed to camping in anticipation of storm impacts. State land and natural resources crews were slated to notify campers they must leave immediately on Friday, according to the county.

"Our state is still recovering from Lala, and we are not waiting for another storm to get close before preparing," Green said in a news release. Officials have also urged people to have 14 days' worth of supplies ahead of the storm.

In mid-August, Hurricane Lala deluged eastern Hawaii's Big Island with feet of rain, triggering severe flooding. Tropical Storm Moke came onto the scene not long after. It delivered some rain to the Big Island in late August, but as a much weaker storm, the impacts were less significant.

Now, all eyes turn to Lowell, which was a Category 3 hurricane located more than 500 miles south of Hawaii as of early Friday morning, local time.

Lowell — which was briefly a Category 5 hurricane on Wednesday — is currently tracking west but is forecast to take a sharp turn to the north this weekend. It's a track eerily similar to that of 1992's Hurricane Iniki, which made landfall on Kauai as a Category 4 hurricane and remains the state's worst storm on record.

An area of low pressure located high in the atmosphere well north of Hawaii is expected to interact with Lowell and pull the hurricane north. It's an atmospheric process a bit like grabbing a stuffed animal in a claw machine.

But exactly when this interaction happens and how much grip the low pressure has will determine exactly when the sharp turn takes place and how close Lowell gets to Hawaii.

The National Hurricane Center's official forecast brings Lowell's center about 150 miles west of Niihau or 190 miles west of Kauai later Monday afternoon through Monday night. But the forecasters have less confidence than normal in that exact track this far out, before it starts making its turn north.

Groups of computer forecast models called ensembles are still showing a wide range of outcomes for Lowell's closest approach. They range from a potential devastating landfall on Kauai or Oahu to a track more than 500 miles west of Niihau that would mean little more than slightly rougher surf and maybe a few showers.

Confidence in the hurricane's track will increase after it completes its sharp turn this weekend.

Given this, it's hard to say with any certainty how much wind and rain the islands will get, but it's clear that rough surf, coastal flooding and rip currents are likely starting as early as this weekend.

Lowell will be strong enough to significantly churn up the ocean outward from its center, stacking up big waves and sending more water than usual at Hawaii's southern shores. Tides will also be near their highest levels of the month, raising the floor on any flood threats.

Major coastal flooding is possible in Kauai, the National Weather Service warned, with significant coastal flooding also possible for Oahu.

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