Pick Six Previews: Utah to get past Arizona in low-scoring affair

SALT LAKE CITY — It was a "tale of two halves" Saturday for Utah as they lost 35-28 against undefeated Washington.

In the first half, Utah's offense exploded for 325 yards and scored touchdowns on four straight possessions. The Utes were able to match and exceed the No. 1 offense in the nation and Heisman front-runner, and built a 28-24 halftime lead.

However, the second half was a completely different script, as the Utah offense reverted back to the struggles that plagued them for most of the season. After the halftime break, Utah mustered just 57 yards, were completely shut out, and only crossed midfield once on six possessions.

On those four touchdown drives, Utah averaged 11.3 yards per play; in the second half, that number fell to just 2.7 yards per play. Ultimately, Utah's upset bid came up short as the offense ran out of gas, and Washington's Michael Penix Jr. did enough to keep the Huskies' dream season alive.

Utah draws another Pac-12 test Saturday as they travel to No. 19 in the Associated Press Arizona (12:30 p.m. MST, Pac-12 Networks).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2020-22): Utah 66.9 (6th) | Arizona 29.9 (65th of 69 Power Five)
2022 season: Utah 69.2 (10th) | Arizona 38.4 (54th of 69 Power Five)
2023 season: Utah 56.6 (25th) | Arizona 61.7 (21st of 69 Power Five)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. Utah stacked another national top-10 finish last year, and thanks to the high amount of returning production, program-record recruiting classes, and proven coaching staff, they earned a No. 8 rank in my 2023 preseason magazine.

Utah held their top 25 spot in Power Five Game Grader after the close 35-28 loss to No. 5 Washington. That is good for just sixth in the top-heavy Pac-12.

Jedd Fisch inherited a broken program, but rebuilt it from scratch and now has a dangerous bowl team in his third season in Tucson. In 2021, they were 1-11 but were much better than their record showed. In 2022, it was all offense but the defense cost them a trip to bowl season.

Now, in 2023, he has a balanced, strong team that nearly knocked off heavyweights Washington (lost by 7) and USC (lost by 2). Arizona beat UCLA by 17 (+160 yardage) and Oregon State by 3. Their current No. 21 Game Grader ranking is a 10-year program best.

Arizona with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Arizona offense: 26th of 69 Power Five (overall), 22nd passing, 21st rushing
Utah defense: 4th of 69 Power Five (overall), 5th passing, 3rd rushing

Last season, Arizona was boom-or-bust based on how well their quarterback Jayden de Laura took care of the ball. He tossed 13 interceptions, but was also the key reason they improved in the win column.

Here in 2023, new freshman quarterback Noah Fifita has all of that upside, but without the variability and turnovers. Fifita took over in September and is currently ranked fourth in the Pac-12 in the all-encompassing QB Rating stat, which is just outside the Power Five top 10. He is completing a high 74% of passes and his 16-4 touchdown-to-pick ratio is exceptional for a first-year starter.

It will be "strength-on-strength" against this Utah defense, which has risen to the top five in all three of my opponent-adjusted metrics. Utah's No. 4 defensive ranking is a five-year high for the program, right on par with that elite 2019 defense.

I'd argue that this one is an even more impressive coaching job by defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley, because despite some of the worst injury luck to the two-deep, he has maintained the same elite defensive output.

Last week against the Heisman front-runner, Utah held Washington to its second worst passing day, and third worst rushing game of the season. I expect Utah to hold Arizona below its averages as well and win this side of the ball. Arizona's pass protection grades out as middle-of-the-pack, while Utah's pass rush is relentless and one of the nation's most disruptive.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense (2023): 58th of 69 Power Five (overall), 56th passing, 39th rushing
Arizona defense (2023): 26th of 69 Power Five (overall), 39th passing, 21st rushing

Even though the offense was shut down in the second half, that productive first half was enough to boost Utah's offensive grades up five spots. They have moved out of the bottom 10, but came up short in crunch time against Washington.

After Utah blocked the field goal to maintain the 7-point margin, the Utes offense got the ball back with 90 seconds and a chance to go tie or win the game. Unlike the final drive against USC, this one never got started, as quarterback Bryson Barnes threw a pick on fourth down of the first series.

There were still positives to build off of from the first half: Devaughn Vele had a breakout game with a career-high 145 receiving yards and finally took over as a true No. 1 receiver threat on the outsides; Jaylon Glover showed some boost on a pair of long runs; Barnes actually out-passed Penix in the first half 238 yards to 198.

They will need to put together four quarters of productive offense to defeat Arizona. This unit is much improved from their defenses in past seasons. In 2023, they have a similar stat profile to Oregon State's defense, which completely shut down Utah in late September.

Game prediction

Both defenses are about 20-30 spots better than their opposing offenses, so I am calling for a lower-scoring game than some of these Pac-12 shootouts. I trust Utah's defense and pass rush as the best unit in this matchup, and they will win a close one against a surging Arizona program.

Utah 23 | Arizona 20

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