Pick Six Previews: As a Big 12 favorite, BYU to score big against outmatched Utah Tech

PROVO — BYU's 2025 team grew into one of the school's best ever.

They went 11-1 in the regular season, lost to Texas Tech in Lubbock and then again in the Big 12 title game. But with the Pop-Tarts Bowl win they got to 12 wins for just the fifth time ever. This time, it was against a Power Four conference, and it was unquestionably the hardest schedule BYU has ever faced.

Just three years removed from independence, BYU had the breakthrough season in 2024, and then in 2025 they established staying power as a Big 12 contender. Kalani Sitake's two-year record of 23-4 is the second-best in program history, only behind their 1984 national title run.

Expectations are high again, and at Big 12 media days, the coaches voted BYU as the preseason league favorites. BYU kicks off the 2026 season with an FCS opponent, with Utah Tech coming to LaVell Edwards Stadium (6 p.m. MT, ESPN+).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2023-25): BYU 55.3 (28th of 68 Power 4) | Utah Tech (FCS)
2025 season: BYU 63.4 (19th) | Utah Tech (FCS)
2026 projection: BYU (17th) | Utah Tech (FCS)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected BYU to finish second in the Big 12 race, and the Cougars earned a preseason Top 25 ranking with my No. 17 spot.

Utah Tech went 2-10 in 2025 in a coaching transition season, which snapped a three-year run of FCS playoff appearances. Head coach Lance Anderson is back for a third year, where they were picked dead last in the 13-team Big Sky Conference.

The Trailblazers were blown out 54-0 last week in their season-opening loss to defending FCS national champions Montana State.

BYU with the ball

BYU offense (2025): 31.4 points/game, 32nd in FBS; 27th in opponent-adjusted offense
Utah Tech defense (2025): 29.3 points/game allowed, 83rd in FCS

Bear Bachmeier won Big 12 Freshman of the Year as the only true freshman in America to post 3,500+ total yards, and he flipped a preseason uncertainty into a program strength. He had highlight moments, too, like his decisive 22-yard touchdown run to win the Utah game — as he carried three Utes into the end zone, the announcers yelled "there's a Bear on the loose in Provo!"

Bachmeier returns and should get a second-year starter bonus. He is joined by All-Big 12 running back LJ Martin and three returning starters along the offensive line who all earned spots on the East-West Shrine Bowl NFL draft watch List: Bruce Mitchell, Kyle Sfarcioc, and Andrew Gentry.

The staff added some key pieces from the transfer portal, like USC co-starter Walker Lyons at tight end, former four-star receiver Kyler Kasper, and lineman Paki Finau, who started games for Washington.

BYU was just outside the top 25 of my opponent-adjusted offense stat last year, but I fully expect them to surge into the top 20 this year. Utah Tech simply could not stop Montana State, and the starters jumped out to a 40-0 lead before putting in the reserves. BYU should have no trouble moving the ball and scoring at-will.

Utah Tech with the ball

Utah Tech offense (2025): 16.0 points/game, 116th in FCS
BYU defense (2025): 19.1 points/game allowed, 19th in FBS; 24th in opponent-adjusted defense

It was all about player retention this offseason for BYU, especially on defense, where despite losing coordinator Jay Hill to Kyle Whittingham's new Michigan program, not a single starter transferred out. Kelly Poppinga was promoted from within, and instantly worked on keeping his two-deep intact.

BYU succeeded and now seven starters return, plus big nose tackle Justin Kirkland, who is back from an injury season. The linebacker room already had an All-Big 12 playmaker with Isaiah Glasker, and then the staff added the top-rated linebacker from the transfer portal in All-ACC Cade Uluave (California).

Keanu Tanuvasa returns at defensive tackle and is a big reason BYU earned my No. 3 rank in Big 12 defensive lines. In fact, BYU and Texas Tech are the only Big 12 defenses to place in the top three at each position unit. BYU's secondary led the whole league with Evan Johnson back at corner, and All-American Faletau Satuala returning at safety. This will remain an overall top 25 defense in 2026.

Utah Tech had a three-man quarterback competition in summer, and it may still remain unsettled after being shutout for four quarters in the opener. Outside of a field goal or two, it is unlikely that Utah Tech is able to sustain long drives against BYU — the starters or the backups.

Game prediction

This is a "pick-your-score" type game for BYU. The starters will rush out to a big lead, and then it's up to the coaches on how much work the backups and reserves get here. They may even keep the offensive scheme a bit basic so they hide their cards from Arizona, their Big 12 opener next Saturday night in Provo.

BYU 52 | Utah Tech 3

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