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PROVO — BYU's 2023 season is in complete free-fall.
After a promising 5-2 start, the Cougars have lost three straight league games and are now in danger of missing a bowl game. Even worse, the three losses have not even been competitive. The 45-13 loss to Iowa State Saturday night rings up the three-game total to 117-26, with an average margin of defeat of 30+ points per game.
Turnovers were BYU's secret formula in September, but that area has totally flipped against them. BYU, again, lost the turnover margin, dug itself a big deficit in the first half, and was unable to sustain offensive drives. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff threw an interception on the first offensive play, and then Ray Paulo fumbled the ensuing kickoff after Iowa State's short-field touchdown.
After the first quarter, BYU failed to convert a single third down — Iowa State went 8-of-14 on the day — and the Cyclones punched in three second quarter touchdowns to build a 31-7 halftime lead.
Three straight blowout losses have stunted the energy and excitement that BYU was building in their Big 12 transition season. A sixth win — and bowl eligibility — is the only way the 2023 season can be saved.
Those 15 bowl practices are especially valuable for player development as BYU moves up into the Power Five tier. Unfortunately, their final two opportunities to get win No. 6 come against the Oklahoma schools, who are both ranked, are both in the Big 12 title race, and have a 15-5 record combined.
First up, the Oklahoma Sooners come to Provo for BYU's senior day (10 a.m. MST, ESPN).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2020-22): BYU 60.5 (16th of 69 Power Five) | Oklahoma 69.7 (4th)
2022 season: BYU 45.4 (50th of 69 Power Five) | Oklahoma 56.4 (27th)
2023 season: BYU 32.1 (63rd of 69 Power Five) | Oklahoma 76.7 (7th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After peaking at No. 5 in 2020, BYU slid to No. 26 in 2021 and then collapsed last year all the way down to No. 50 (of 69 Power Five teams) for the second-worst grade of the entire Kalani Sitake era.
BYU fell five more spots after the decisive loss to Iowa State, which makes it an 18-spot decline from just three weeks ago. The Cougars are ranked 63rd of 69 Power Five teams in 2023 Game Grader, which is second- worst in the Big 12, and would be BYU's worst season grade since I've been tracking (2009-23).
Lincoln Riley darted to USC, the Sooners hired defensive ace Brent Venables, but the transition season was their first losing year since 1998. Oklahoma bounced back to Big 12 and national contention this year as they raced to a 7-0 start, beat Texas, and surged into the top five.
Since then, the Sooners dropped consecutive games to Kansas and Oklahoma State in the final Bedlam game. While the playoff run is over, they are chasing a spot in the conference title game in their final Big 12 season before departing for the SEC.
Oklahoma with the ball
Oklahoma offense: 12th of 69 Power Five (overall), 4th passing, 33rd rushing
BYU defense: 57th of 69 Power Five (overall), 42nd passing, 67th rushing
BYU's defensive collapse and midseason coordinator firing was the key storyline of the 2022 season; and after a promising start to 2023, the defense has fallen back down to where it was last year.
After a third straight big loss, the defense fell in all three of my statistical categories again this week: down eight spots overall, down three in passing, and down four in rushing. Just like West Virginia two weeks ago, Iowa State's offense hit a season-high in points scored, total yards, yards per play, and yards per carry.
It will only get tougher for BYU this week as they face an elite offense led by a Heisman candidate quarterback Dillon Gabriel. The Sooners feature a top-five passing attack and a top-10 offensive line, which only allows a sack on 4% of pass plays. Offensive line coach Bill Bedenbaugh is one of the best in the nation, and again has built a top unit.
Even though BYU is relatively stronger against the pass compared to their nation-worst rush defense, I still expect Oklahoma to move the ball through both the air and on the ground, and have the clear advantage on the line of scrimmage. Their roster is packed with five-star and four-star athletes at the skill positions.
BYU with the ball
BYU offense: 66th of 69 Power Five (overall), 63rd passing, 61st rushing
Oklahoma defense: 12th of 69 Power Five (overall), 8th passing, 10th rushing
The average FBS offense averages 400 yards per game; BYU hasn't even hit that average mark once this season in any game. In fact, the Cougars have only eclipsed the 300-yard mark twice in their nine FBS games so far.
The quarterback change from Kedon Slovis to Jake Retzlaff was not an instant solution, they are failing to get any run push, and turnovers are a problem. BYU is converting just 27% of their third downs, which is the worst in all of Power Five.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma is hitting a five-year program high on defense, and Venables has his unit ranked in the top 12 of all three of my opponent-adjusted defensive categories. My "matchup calculator" has this as one of the most lopsided battles of the entire season.
Game prediction
Oklahoma has decisive advantages in every unit and positional matchup of this game. They also have extra motivation as they pursue a spot in the Big 12 title game.
Oklahoma beat West Virginia by 39 and Iowa State by 30. BYU lost to West Virginia by 30 and lost to Iowa State by 32.
Oklahoma 48 | BYU 13
