Pick Six Previews: Despite talented Weber State team, Utah to roll to 3-0 record

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah took a trip down to Waco, Texas, for a matchup with a future conference rival, and used a resilient fourth quarter to survive with the win.

Baylor led 13-6 in the fourth quarter, but backup quarterback Nate Johnson led a methodical 15-play, 88-yard touchdown drive — that took over eight minutes — to tie up the game with just two minutes remaining.

An interception by do-it-all safety Cole Bishop set up the Utes in position for a game-winning field goal, but the power run game punched in a touchdown instead with 17 seconds left to win it. Head coach Kyle Whittingham noted the close win was "nothing spectacular" but correctly brought the emphasis back to the fact that Utah took on two Power Five opponents and won both.

That is my main takeaway from their opening two weeks.

These games were not as statistically dominant as I had originally forecasted when I selected Utah to three-peat as Pac-12 champions, but those July predictions also did not consider the mass amount of injuries and scratches from the starting lineup.

Utah's "next-man-up" mentality and the way the team rallied to a 2-0 record — they joined Colorado as the only two teams to open with consecutive Power Five wins — are impressive September feats.

With Alabama losing to Texas in Tuscaloosa, Utah now holds the nation's third-longest home win streak. They host in-state FCS foe Weber State (12 p.m. MDT, Pac-12 Networks) in the final nonconference game before the Pac-12 race kicks off.

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2020-22): Utah 66.9 (6th) | Weber State N/A — FCS
2022 season: Utah 69.2 (10th) | Weber State N/A — FCS
2023 season: Utah (10th) | Weber State N/A — FCS

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. Utah stacked another national Top 10 finish last year, and thanks to the high amount of returning production, program-record recruiting classes and proven coaching staff, they earned a No. 8 rank in my 2023 preseason magazine.

Their narrow, one-score win over Baylor dropped the Utes two spots from No. 8 to No. 10 in my 2023 Game Grader rankings. The Baylor win itself was solid, but this current ranking shift is more a result of Texas surging into the top five after beating Alabama, and USC piling on huge margins of victory.

Weber State has made the FCS playoffs in six of the past seven seasons, but in the offseason head coach Jay Hill took the defensive coordinator job at BYU. Offensive coordinator Mickey Mental was promoted as the new head coach for 2023, and the Wildcats are 2-0 with a Top 10 FCS ranking.

Weber State with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Weber State offense (2022): 16th of 130 FCS teams
Utah defense (2022): 34th of 69 Power Five
Utah defense (2023): 27th of 69 Power Five

In last week's preview, I said that Utah's defensive front would own the line of scrimmage and force Baylor into longer third downs. That ended up only partially true. Utah did continue to get Baylor behind the chains, but on two occasions Baylor converted third-and-10+ by running the ball off tackle.

Against a Baylor offensive line that struggled to get a run push in their non-AQ opener, Utah allowed 224 rushing yards and a 4.8 per-carry average. They also failed to register a single sack after posting five against Florida.

There were certainly other bright spots this week. The bend-don't-break mentality shined through again; and despite giving up all those yards, Utah held Baylor to just 13 points, and most importantly dominated the fourth quarter. On the four drives in the fourth quarter, Utah forced two punts, grabbed an interception, and then held off a final push to the end zone.

Bishop had the interception, but also added plays all over the field — even behind the line of scrimmage — and earned a weekly nomination for the Lott Impact Trophy; he is on my All-America radar. Weber State has been run-heavy so far, rushing for 200+ yards per game and running the ball on 63% of their offensive snaps. For context, that would place as one of the most run-heavy ratios in Division I.

Statistically, it appears to be the same formula that Baylor used.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense (2022): 28th of 69 Power Five
Utah offense (2023): 42nd of 69 Power Five
Weber State defense (2023): 17th of 130 FCS teams

With two-time champion quarterback Cam Rising still rehabbing his injury, the starting spot was earned by Bryson Barnes. While the Florida game opened with a 70-yard touchdown that registered an actual earthquake, the Baylor game started with an inexcusable delay of game penalty after the opening kickoff. It was foreshadowing for a tough game for Barnes who finished 6-of-19 passing for just 71 yards and a pick.

Instead, it was speedster Nate Johnson who emerged in the fourth quarter to lead both the tying and game-winning touchdown drives. He continued to have success running the ball, but on these drives he showed poise in the pocket and made quick, decisive reads in the pass game. Johnson connected on two 20+ yard slants, and also completed a play-action rollout pass.

Rising is apparently near 100% healthy and practicing, but the staff will likely rest him for this FCS game before the big conference opener with UCLA in two weeks. Look for both Barnes and Johnson on Saturday, but perhaps the order has flipped toward Johnson after his breakout fourth quarter.

Weber State has been known for fielding strong defenses, as former head coach Hill placed his final five units in the FCS Top 30. They are veteran in the secondary, have star power in FCS All-American linebacker Winston Reid, and are, again, ranked highly at No. 17 in scoring defense so far.

Game prediction

NCAA Division I football broke into I-A (now FBS) and I-AA (FCS) back in 1978. In 1980, Utah lost to then-FCS Boise State but has not lost to an FCS opponent since. While I respect Weber State's track record and current roster, this won't be the Utes' second such loss.

Utah 42 | Weber State 17

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