Pick Six Previews: Utah to keep undefeated streak, but it Arizona to keep it tight

SALT LAKE CITY — In the Holy War's first-ever top-10 matchup, Utah defeated BYU 28-20 in front of a raucous Rice-Eccles Stadium crowd. Red zone conversions, turnovers, and the quarterbacks were the difference.

Utah's Devon Dampier scored all four touchdowns — 177 passing yards and two passing touchdowns, plus 87 rushing yards and two rushing scores — and even caught a critical fourth-down trick play.

BYU's Bear Bachmeier tossed four interceptions, including two in the red zone, and the game-changer at the goal-line by Utah linebacker Trey Reynolds with four minutes left. Utah cashed in touchdowns on four of five red zone trips but held BYU to just 13 points on their five trips.

The Utah crowd caused several penalties and miscommunications for BYU, and the false starts on fourth-downs changed the decision to go or kick. That same crowd poured onto the field to celebrate a perfect 9-0 start for the third time in school history (2004 and 2008).

Utah rose to No. 2 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll and in the College Football Playoff rankings, and now holds the longest active win streak in FBS at 15 straight. Their 10 straight wins in Salt Lake City marks the fifth longest home win streak, but this week the Utes travel to a former Pac-12 South foe at Arizona (5:30 p.m. MT, FOX).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2023-25): Utah 56.5 (25th of 68 Power 4) | Arizona 55.6 (27th)
2025 season: Utah 72.3 (10th) | Arizona 63.6 (18th)
2026 season: Utah 73.1 (9th) | Arizona 65.8 (15th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Utah to finish third in the Big 12 race, and the Utes earned a preseason top 25 ranking with my No. 22 spot. They have surged up to No. 9 and are the Big 12 leaders heading into November. Game Grader currently has Utah projected as favorites in all remaining games.

I projected Arizona eighth in the Big 12, and so far they have surpassed those expectations. They are 7-2 overall with six wins by double-digits, and close losses to BYU and Texas Tech. Last Friday night they needed a miraculous rally to beat TCU and benefited from a fumbled kickoff in the final minute. Arizona is all the way up to No. 15 in Game Grader.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense: 13th of 68 Power 4
Arizona defense: 16th of 68 Power 4

In Utah's biggest moments, Dampier simply takes over the game. He accounted for all four touchdowns and the entire yardage production outside of Wayshawn Parker's 36 rushing yards. Head coach Morgan Scalley had high praise for Dampier after the game, saying "he's a competitor, a warrior, he wins us football games."

At this rate, he may even end up in New York City at the Heisman ceremony as a finalist.

Arizona's defense will present another challenge for Utah as they are one of the few teams to rank in the top 25 of all three defensive categories in my opponent-adjusted metrics: 16th overall, 24th rushing defense, 19th passing defense.

The pass defense success is shocking considering they tied the NFL draft record with four defensive backs selected after the 2025 season, which seemed to be a clear regression heading into 2026.

Offenses with mobile quarterbacks have had success against this defense — BYU (Bear Bachmeier), West Virginia (Michael Hawkins), and Texas Tech (Thomas Castellanos) averaged 31 points and 450 yards.

Arizona with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Arizona offense: 21st of 68 Power 4
Utah defense: 40th of 68 Power 4

Noah Fifita became Arizona's first all-conference quarterback since the 1970s and has continued that success here in 2026. He is currently eighth in the Power Four in QB rating, 5th in passing touchdowns, and 12th in yards/attempt.

Arizona continues to hit their deep shots in the pass game and speedy Isaiah Mizell is fifth in the Big 12 with his explosive 19 yards/catch average.

The weakness is their rushing offense, which ranks in the bottom 10 of my opponent-adjusted rankings. Utah will neutralize their run game and make Arizona even more pass-heavy. This is the "strength vs. strength" of the matchup, with Fifita attempting to throw against Utah's No. 4 ranked pass defense (opponent QB rating).

Game prediction

There has been a clear trend of "hangover games" where a team notching a top-10 win comes out flat the following game, going just 6-11 straight-up and 5-12 (.294) against-the-spread this season. Utah falls into this category this week, and it's likely magnified given the importance and emotion surrounding the rivalry.

They also draw a tough opponent, on the road, in primetime. Arizona has shown they can compete with the top tier of the Big 12 and are a solid team on both sides of the ball.

This game will thread the needle and continue all three trends. Utah will extend the nation's best win streak, remain undefeated, but will also be the latest hangover victim against-the-spread. With Arizona as a field goal underdog, look for a tight-margin win for the Utes.

Utah 31 | Arizona 30

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