Pick Six Previews: Utah's defense to overpower Baylor for Week 2 win

SALT LAKE CITY — The two-time defending Pac-12 champions kicked off its 2023 campaign by exacting revenge on an SEC foe, as the Utes beat the Florida Gators 24-11 in front of a Rice-Eccles Stadium record crowd of 53,644.

The fans were loud all game and caused the television cameras to shake, forced Florida's offensive line into key false start penalties, and the big 70-yard touchdown pass to open the game actually triggered a small-scale earthquake at the university's seismology department.

The Utah football program flexed again on the national stage, but this time they did so without several starters and team leaders. Their "next man up" mindset — along with out-muscling an SEC powerhouse along both lines of scrimmage — were the storylines of the game. The win was yet another testament to Utah's nation-best player development and their elite coaching staff.

Utah extended the nation's fourth-longest home win streak but now has to take a road trip to Waco, Texas. With Florida and Baylor stacked at the start of the schedule, Utah is one of just a handful of Power Five teams to open with consecutive games against fellow Power Five opponents. This future Big 12 matchup kicks off early at 10 a.m. MDT on ESPN.

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2020-22): Utah 66.9 (6th) | Baylor 54.3 (30th of 69 Power Five)
2022 season: Utah 69.2 (10th) | Baylor 53.0 (33rd of 69 Power Five)

2023 season: Utah (8th ) | Baylor (46th of 69 Power Five)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. Utah stacked another national Top 10 finish last year, and thanks to the high amount of returning production, program-record recruiting classes, and proven coaching staff, the Utes earned a No. 8 rank in my 2023 preseason magazine.

Their win over Florida certainly proved my No. 8 rank, which was higher than any other magazine or publication in America.

Baylor entered the season in the middle tier of the Big 12 with a No. 38 rank in Power Five. Their 42-31 loss to Texas State — as 26.5-point favorites — was one of the nation's worst season openers. Texas State entered 2023 as the consensus last-place finishers in the Sun Belt and had never defeated a Power Five opponent until Saturday. This loss dropped Baylor eight spots to No. 46.

Baylor with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Baylor offense (2022): 41st of 69 Power Five
Baylor offense (2023) yards/play: 28th of 69 Power Five
Utah defense (2022): 34th of 69 Power Five
Utah defense (2023) yards/play: 51st of 69 Power Five

Despite the loss, Baylor posted 525 yards and 417 through the air. The Bears' two biggest concerns heading into Week 2 are their injured starting quarterback and a lack of a run push.

Starter Blake Shapen threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns before getting knocked out of the game. He has been ruled out for Saturday's game, which means Baylor will turn to Mississippi State transfer Sawyer Robinson. He did not match Shapen's production and was just 6-of-12 passing with an interception and no scores.

Baylor's offensive line failed to get a consistent run push, and as a team they posted a low 3.4 yards per carry, which would place them 97th in FBS. That feeds right into Utah's most impressive position group of their opener: the defensive line.

Utah lived up to its "Sack Lake City" nickname last week by posting five sacks, the second most in that nation against Power Five opponents. While Baylor's 3.4 rushing average seems low, consider Utah held Florida to just 0.6 per carry, and held their dynamic duo of rushers to 90 yards below their 2022 averages.

Utah will own this line of scrimmage, stifle the Baylor run game, and force back-up Robinson into mistakes and longer third downs. While the Utes won't have the hometown "third-down jump" helping them here in Waco, their defensive success on third down was a nation-best 1-for-13 last week.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense (2022): 28th of 69 Power 5
Utah offense (2023) yards/play: 55th of 69 Power Five
Baylor defense (2022): 29th of 69 Power Five
Baylor defense (2023) yards/play: 63rd of 69 Power Five

With two-time champion quarterback Cam Rising still rehabbing his injury, the starting spot was earned by Bryson Barnes. He launched a 70-yard bomb on Utah's first play, and then the staff also worked in speedster Nate Johnson, who led the team in rushing yards and added a score. Look for more snap sharing at quarterback this week.

Andy Ludwig has earned our confidence in using his personnel effectively.

Texas State had a lot of success in the pass game and winning one-on-ones on the outsides against Baylor's secondary. I am interested to see which Utah wideouts emerge here. Running backs Ja'Quinden Jackson and Micah Bernard are both questionable for Saturday, meaning a bigger carry load for Jaylon Glover — and likely even more designed runs for Johnson.

Given Baylor head coach Dave Aranda's track record as one of the nation's best defensive minds, it was shocking to see Texas State rout them and move the ball at-will. Aranda will adjust accordingly, but such a poor defensive performance shows there are limitations here.

Game prediction

Utah is my pick to win the Pac-12 in 2023, and despite having eight starters knocked out of the lineup, they impressed in their season opener. Another Power Five test awaits, and this time it is on the road against a future Big 12 opponent. I already had this as a projected Utah win back in the preseason, and then Baylor played much worse than expected in their loss to Texas State.

Look for Utah's defensive front seven to control the game as the key reason for another win.

Utah 30 | Baylor 17

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