Hotline Big 12 power rankings for Week 11: Utah tightens grip, Arizona ticks up as playoff bid scenarios emerge

The Big 12 football power rankings are published on the Hotline each Monday throughout the regular season. The placement of teams reflects both the latest results and season-long performance. (Call them objectively subjective.) For comparative purposes, we have included each team's position in last week's rankings.

Combine the outcomes of the first College Football Playoff rankings and the 10th Saturday of the season and postseason clarity is beginning to form across the Big 12 terrain.

The likelihood of sending three teams to the CFP, which seemed possible but hardly probable a few weeks ago, is now wholly unrealistic. There have been too many wins by the wrong teams, both inside and outside of the conference, and too many losses by the right teams.

So let's place that scenario to the side and focus on the Big 12's path to two playoff bids, which, if you'll recall, was the hope all along.

Alone among the power conferences, the Big 12 has not sent an at-large team to the CFP since the event expanded two years ago. Only its champions, Arizona State in 2024 and Texas Tech in 2025, have participated.

Claiming an at-large bid this year is paramount, along with actually winning a playoff game.

The initial CFP rankings, revealed Nov. 3, were not as favorable as they appeared. Yes, Utah and BYU were in the top 10, as expected, but Texas Tech's position (15th) was a warning sign.

Add the two essential results from Week 10 — those would be Utah's victory in the Holy War and Notre Dame's victory over No. 1 Miami — and we have initial framing for the stretch run.

The Irish are essentially a lock to secure one of the CFP's seven at-large bids, leaving six for the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC to fight over.

Also critical: BYU now has two losses in league play and faces a narrow path into the Big 12 championship game.

The Cougars need one-loss Texas Tech to lose again. But another defeat for the Red Raiders seemingly would doom their chances for an at-large berth given the No. 15 ranking. (The top 11 teams in the final rankings will make the cut. The 12th spot is reserved for the best team in the Group of Six.)

Put another way: If BYU gets in, Texas Tech is out.

Which sequence of results would offer the best chance to send a second team to the playoff?

Here's our view:

— Utah defeats Arizona this week and wins out to finish 12-0 while Texas Tech beats Oklahoma State this week and wins out to finish 11-1, setting up a zero-loss vs. one-loss matchup in Arlington.

— Texas Tech wins the championship game, finishes 12-1 and secures an automatic berth to the CFP.

— Utah finishes 12-1 and is an easy call for an at-large bid.

That's the only scenario in which the loser of the conference championship has fewer than two losses.

Anything else carries high risk for the Big 12 given that only six at-large bids exist — again, the Notre Dame factor — and that the SEC is extremely well-positioned to grab at least two.

Could the Red Raiders qualify as a two-loss loser of the championship game? Perhaps. But they have a long way to climb in the rankings to reach the safety zone — again, that No. 15 ranking was ominous — and no ranked teams remaining on the schedule to provide resume rocket fuel.

What about BYU as a two-loss finisher that doesn't qualify for the conference championship?

The head-to-head victory over Notre Dame would carry more weight if the teams had the same number of losses. But it now appears the Irish will finish 11-1, giving the committee the justification it needs to invite the Irish and exclude the Cougars.

Also, BYU's loss at unranked UCF stands as a major blemish.

The Big 12 did not receive the benefit of the doubt from the selection committee in 2024 or 2025 — the Cougars drew short straws both times — and there's no reason to believe that will change.

The conference cannot leave anything to chance.

It must have two teams with 12-1 records to ensure an at-large invitation.

This time next week, the situation should be fairly clear. The Utah-Arizona and Texas Tech-Oklahoma State results will provide the final clues, allowing us to map the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Big 12 in its desperate pursuit of becoming a two-bid conference.

To the power rankings ...

(All times Pacific)

1. Utah (9-0/6-0)

Result: beat BYU 28-20

Next up: at Arizona (4:30 p.m. on Fox)

Comment: The only unbeaten teams in major college football are former Pac-12 rivals that met last year as members of their new conferences: Utah beat UCLA handily in the Rose Bowl. Too bad the return game in Salt Lake City was scheduled for 2030 and not this season. (Last week: 1)

2. BYU (7-2/4-2)

Result: lost at Utah 28-20

Next up: vs. Baylor (12:30 p.m. on Fox)

Comment: The Big 12's scheduling decision to send BYU across the country to UCF the week after playing Notre Dame could end up costing the conference a playoff bid. Just sayin'. (Last week: 2)

3. Texas Tech (8-1/5-1)

Result: beat West Virginia 53-48

Next up: at Oklahoma State (6:30 p.m. on ESPN)

Comment: The former coaches on the selection committee won't look kindly on the Red Raiders giving up 48 points and 582 yards to West Virginia. Don't be shocked if they drop from the No. 15 position on Tuesday. (Last week: 3)

4. Arizona (7-2/4-2)

Result: beat TCU 29-28

Next up: vs. Utah (4:30 p.m. on Fox)

Comment: The only thing better for Arizona than having an extra day to prepare for the Utes and catching them immediately after the Holy War would be if Utah also climbs to No. 1 in the CFP rankings. (Last week: 5)

5. Houston (7-2/4-2)

Result: beat Cincinnati 31-24

Next up: at Colorado (Friday at 7:15 p.m. on ESPN)

Comment: We aren't suggesting the Cougars would win a Big 12 football tournament played on a neutral field. But we aren't suggesting they wouldn't win the tournament, either. (Last week: 4)

6. Oklahoma State (6-3/4-2)

Result: won at Kansas State 66-28

Next up: vs. Texas Tech (6:30 p.m. on ESPN)

Comment: An OSU offense that just scored 66 points on Kansas State now faces a defense that gave up 48 points to West Virginia. The Over/Under on Drew Mestemaker touchdown passes Saturday is 4.5. (Last week: 6)

7. West Virginia (5-4/2-4)

Result: lost at Texas Tech 53-48

Next up: vs. Kansas (2:30 p.m. on ESPNU)

Comment: We picked West Virginia to beat Texas Tech and damn if the Hotline didn't look prescient for 57 minutes. And then? Not. (Last week: 7)

8. Arizona State (5-4/3-3)

Result: beat Colorado 20-10

Next up: at UCF (12:30 p.m. on ESPN2)

Comment: The Sun Devils are slight underdogs in Orlando, likely will be underdogs next week against Oklahoma State and assuredly will be underdogs in the finale at Arizona. So they need an upset of some degree to become bowl-eligible. (Last week: 8)

9. Baylor (6-3/4-2)

Result: beat Iowa State 42-31

Next up: at BYU (12:30 p.m. on Fox)

Comment: This might be a good time to remind folks that two of Baylor's losses are by one point, to Auburn and Kansas, on a failed two-point conversion and a late touchdown allowed, respectively. (Last week: 9)

10. Cincinnati (5-4/2-4)

Result: lost at Houston 31-24

Next up: at Iowa State (9 a.m. on TNT)

Comment: The Bearcats have lost four of their past five, comparable to their 2025 arc. Can coach Scott Satterfield survive another collapse? We're skeptical. (Last week: 10)

11. UCF (5-4/3-3)

Result: won at Kansas 33-32

Next up: vs. Arizona State (12:30 p.m. on ESPN2)

Comment: With Arizona State, Iowa State and Colorado left on the schedule, the Knights very well could finish with eight wins and a load of offseason momentum entering the third year of Scott Frost's second tenure. (Last week: 11)

12. TCU (4-5/2-4)

Result: lost at Arizona 29-28

Next up: vs. Kansas State (11 a.m. on ESPNU)

Comment: We are not sure where the coaching bell will toll next across the Big 12 footprint. Fort Worth? Boulder? Lawrence? But it will toll somewhere. Of that, we are convinced. (Last week: 13)

13. Iowa State (4-5/2-4)

Result: lost at Baylor 42-31

Next up: vs. Cincinnati (9 a.m. on TNT)

Comment: The Cyclones host Cincinnati and Kansas State and visit UCF in between. Can they win two of three? Yes. Should we expect them to win two of three? Probably not. But it would be a stellar accomplishment for Jimmy Rogers given the state of his roster last winter. (Last week: 12)

14. Kansas State (4-5/1-5)

Result: lost to Oklahoma State 66-28

Next up: at TCU (11 a.m. on ESPNU)

Comment: Honestly, the bottom tier could be arranged in any order. They are all the same once you drop below UCF. (Last week: 14)

15. Colorado (3-6/1-5)

Result: lost at Arizona State 20-10

Next up: vs. Houston (Friday at 7:15 p.m. on ESPN)

Comment: Coach Deion Sanders said after the latest loss that he doesn't think about his job security, which is fine. The folks in charge in Boulder undoubtedly are doing it for him. (Last week: 15)

16. Kansas (3-6/1-5)

Result: lost to UCF 33-32

Next up: at West Virginia (2:30 p.m. on ESPNU)

Comment: Barring an upset, the Jayhawks will finish 3-9. That happens to be the same record they posted in 2019, the final full season of the Les Miles tenure. (Last week: 16)

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