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SALT LAKE CITY — Snow is back in Utah's forecast just in time for the Christmas holiday weekend.
The National Weather Service on Tuesday issued a winter storm warning for the Wasatch and western Uinta mountain ranges, where 6 to 12 inches or more of snow are currently forecast to fall primarily on Wednesday. It also issued a winter weather advisory that covers the parts of the Wasatch Front, Wasatch Back and other parts of northern Utah, where snow is also expected to fall.
The snow returns
Utah is in line to receive snow from another storm system moving in from the West, says KSL meteorologist Matt Johnson. It has the potential to bring some snow showers late Tuesday afternoon and into the evening with some flurries possible in the valleys.
The mountain snow will continue overnight into Wednesday morning before a cold front arrives later in the day, which is when the snow will become more intense in the northern Utah mountains and valleys.
"That cold front will move through sometime (Wednesday) afternoon or evening. Depending on the timing, it could impact that evening commute or anyone trying to get out on the roads (Wednesday) evening," Johnson said, adding that some lingering showers are possible especially in central Utah on Thursday morning.
The storm warning states that strong wind gusts up to 60 mph — and up to 80 mph exposed ridgelines — are projected in the Wasatch and western Uinta mountains on top of the snow.
While most of the snow is expected to fall in the mountains, especially in the Cottonwood Canyons, the storm may deliver 1 to 4 inches in the valleys from Manti to Logan, according to a National Weather Service model updated Tuesday afternoon. It may produce up to 7 inches in parts of the Wasatch Back. The storm is forecast to skip southern Utah.
Meteorologists say mountain passes and I-80 east of Parleys Canyon are most likely to be impacted by the storm.
"Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility," the weather service advisory states.
Christine Kruse, a lead meteorologist for the National Weather Service, said that the storm likely won't provide as much snow as some of the other recent storms in the state, but it will provide much colder temperatures, particularly in the northern half of Utah.
High temperatures in the Wasatch Front, Wasatch Back and Cache Valley are forecast to only reach into the teens and low-to-mid 20s Thursday, with overnight lows dropping into the single digits and even below zero for some of those places.
Kruse adds that wind chills will drop to near or below zero across the region, as well. The weather service also issued a wind chill warning for Wednesday night into Thursday morning because of "dangerously cold wind chills" in parts of the state.
"We're looking at some of the coldest temperatures we've seen in quite a while, especially if you're in Davis and Weber counties or northward along the Wasatch Front and in the Cache Valley," she said.
The storm passing through the state this week is expected to cause more problems as it moves on by. Johnson notes that it is the same storm system projected to strengthen over the Midwest and create widespread travel problems as it moves east this week, which may impact Utahns planning to head out to the eastern half of the country for the Christmas holiday.
Will Utah have a white Christmas?
National Weather Service meteorologists debated what actually constitutes a white Christmas last year, and it was decided through a 56% to 44% vote on Twitter that it means snow is actually falling on Christmas Day over snow being on the ground Christmas Day.
This year, the agency combed through its data and found that Salt Lake City has experienced new snowfall or had snow on the ground on Christmas Day about two-thirds of the time over the past 70 years, though the last two years have produced no new snow and there was also no snow on the ground.
We know that a lot of you are starting to dream of a White Christmas...
— NWS Salt Lake City (@NWSSaltLakeCity) December 10, 2022
Here's a year by year look at the history of a White Christmas at Salt Lake City. #utwxpic.twitter.com/d1hJmiYZC7
There's a strong chance that there will at least still be snow on the ground this year; however, if you're using new snow as the metric, the odds are currently low for a white Christmas. This could change as the week progresses, though. Some weather prediction models indicate a dry Christmas Day, but there is at least one computer scenario that outlines the potential for some snow across the Wasatch Front.
Kruse points out that since there is still instability in weather patterns across the West, the forecast will become clearer closer to the holiday.
Even if it doesn't snow on Christmas, there are signs that Utah is in line for precipitation to close out 2022. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's outlooks project over an 80% probability of at least normal precipitation for most of Utah between Dec. 27 and Jan. 2, 2023. It also high probability for near-normal to above-normal precipitation across northern Utah in the days after Christmas.
The outlook also calls on a higher probability of above-normal temperatures, so it's possible some areas may receive rain instead of snow.
"It looks like we stay in a more active pattern for that last week," Kruse said. "There is some chance that we'll see one or several storms that move through, so that's something we'll keep an eye on as we get a little bit closer."
Full seven-day forecasts for areas across Utah can be found online, at the KSL Weather Center.
