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SALT LAKE CITY — The best time of year is upon us, and Utah has the honor of officially kicking off the 2024 college football season in primetime Thursday night.
With the collapse of the Pac-12, Utah heads to the Big 12 with Arizona, Arizona State, and Colorado, and reunites with rival BYU and former conference foe TCU. They enter 2024 as one of the league favorites and are my pick to win the Big 12 outright and finally land in the College Football Playoff.
Before we kick off conference play, Utah hosts Southern Utah in Rice-Eccles Stadium, where they have sold out every game the past 14 seasons. Yes, Utah has sold out all 83 home games since the start of the 2010 season.
They enter Thursday night as heavy favorites in this in-state matchup (7 p.m. MDT, ESPN+).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): Utah 63.6 (12th of 70 Power 4) | Southern Utah (N/A - FCS)
2023 Season: Utah 52.3 (35th) | Southern Utah (N/A - FCS)
2024 Preseason: Utah (8th) | Southern Utah (N/A - FCS)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After consecutive top-10 finishes, Utah slid to 35th (of 70 Power 4 programs) last year.
As Utah fans are well aware, their 2023 struggles were a result of losing 157 combined starts to injury from the two-deep. In all my years covering college football, it was the most injured team I can recall.
They are due for a "boomerang" effect in 2024. Not only are those original injured starters back healthy, but all of those younger players who were thrown into action ahead of schedule now return as experienced veterans. Look for Utah to surge back to the top 10 of my Game Grader as the season unfolds.
Southern Utah with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Southern Utah offense (2023): 20th of 128 FCS teams
Utah defense (2023): 19th of 70 Power 4
Justin Miller departs after setting the Southern Utah school passing records for career yards, touchdowns, and completion percentage. He leaves behind a wide-open quarterback competition that appeared unsettled in fall camp between incumbent dual-threat Jackson Berry and newcomer Bronson Barron.
The American Fork native Barron led Weber State to a 10-win season and top-10 national ranking in 2022 before trying his hand at the FBS level at Western Kentucky.
The strengths of the Southern Utah offense come in the run game, with their running back pair of Braedon Wissler and Targhee Lambson combining for over 1,000 yards last year. They will run behind a veteran offensive line that returns four starters and nine of 10 from the two-deep.
Utah's defense is fully loaded for 2024, especially in the front seven, with multiple All-Big 12 contenders along the defensive line, plus standouts Karene Reid and Lander Barton both returning at linebacker.
Morgan Scalley was awarded the "coach-in-waiting" honor after a long run of building elite defenses here. The 2024 unit should build off of last year's No. 19 defensive ranking, per my opponent-adjusted, per-play metrics. This unit matchup will be strength on strength for the teams, but it is a decisive advantage for the Utes.
Keep an eye on Utah's nation-leading streak of seasons with a pick six by the defense, a 20-year run that started all the way back when Scalley was a player here.
Utah with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Utah offense (2023): 65th of 70 Power 4
Southern Utah defense (2023): 51st of 128 FCS teams
The storyline for Utah's offense has been the health of two-time Pac-12 champion quarterback Cam Rising. He was knocked out of the 2022 Rose Bowl and the rehab cost him the entire 2023 season.
Rising returns fully healthy for 2024, along with another returning injured star tight end Brant Kuithe, who earned third-team preseason All-America honors by Pick Six Previews. The duo's return is a key reason for the optimism and projected bounce back from a bottom five offense in 2023.
The addition of Big 12 All-Transfer receiver Dorian Singer gives Utah a true No. 1 threat on the outside. Singer led the Pac-12 in receiving yards for Arizona in 2022 and will be an excellent complement to Kuithe and receiver Money Parks. The offensive line has been a reliable strength for the program and that is expected to continue in 2024.
Southern Utah ranked as a middle-of-the-pack FCS defense last year but does bring back star power at each level of the defense. All-WAC performers pack the lineup with Payton Payne on the line, George Ramirez in the secondary, and tackle-leader Kohner Cullimore at backer.
Game prediction
Utah defeated Southern Utah 73-7 in 2022; and while this one should be closer than that 66-point margin, it should still be a decisive victory. Utah is 61-10 (.859) as a home favorite during their Rice-Eccles sellout streak, and (.600) as a home favorite against the spread over that span.
With decisive talent advantages on both sides of the ball, look for a season-opening blowout.
Utah 52 | Southern Utah 13
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Brett Ciancia
