The Big 12's barrage of Week 2 showdowns vs. the Big Ten and SEC will define the season, for better or worse

The marquee matchup in the Big 12 this week is, of course, set for Provo, where BYU hosts Arizona in a duel of teams pursuing the conference title and a berth in the College Football Playoff.

Week 2 conference games rarely feature such lofty stakes. This is a delicious exception.

And yet, the showdown on Fox (12:30 p.m.) is not the most impactful game for the Big 12 on Saturday. Or the second most impactful. Or the third.

Welcome to the defining week of the season for the conference — not because of BYU-Arizona but because of everything else.

The Big 12's success (or failure) in a series of non-conference duels will establish a narrative that lasts throughout the regular season and into the College Football Playoff selection process.

Unlike the Big Ten, the SEC and even the ACC, the Big 12 has not won a playoff game in the two seasons of the expanded event or produced an at-large participant. (Its peers have done both.)

Only the Big 12 champions have been involved: Arizona State in 2024 and Texas Tech in 2025 — and the Red Raiders didn't bother to score.

That's the extent of the Big 12's time on the sport's biggest stage. Will anything change in 2026?

How the Big 12 fares this weekend will frame the journey ahead. There are five matchups against the SEC and Big Ten, beginning with Kansas hosting Missouri on Friday night and continuing with Oklahoma State-Oregon and Arizona State-Texas A&M on Saturday morning, followed by Iowa State-Iowa and Utah-Arkansas.

Some context:

— Those five games, jammed into 30 hours, constitute 62.5% of all Big 12 matchups against the SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame.

(There's also one date with the ACC this weekend: UCF visits Pittsburgh.)

— The conference is scheduled to face a total of five ranked opponents all season, based on the current AP Top 25 poll. Three of them loom this week: No. 6 Oregon, No. 10 Texas A&M and No. 23 Missouri.

(The others are Virginia and Notre Dame.)

— Of the 13 total head-to-head games against power conference opponents in 2026, six are this weekend.

Slice, dice and filter the schedule however you'd like. The data all points to Friday night and Saturday as the defining sequence for the Big 12.

Once the final whistle blows, the conference will have three games remaining against Power Four opponents: Colorado heads to Northwestern and West Virginia visits Virginia next weekend; and BYU hosts Notre Dame in October.

That's it. Beyond Saturday, there are just three chances to frame the narrative.

Thus far, the Big 12 is 2-2 against its peers. Colorado and Cincinnati defeated Georgia Tech and Boston College, respectively. Meanwhile, TCU lost to North Carolina and Baylor stumbled against Auburn.

None of the Big 12's four opponents were ranked, and there's a good chance none of them will climb into the Top 25 at any point this season.

In many regards, the canvas is blank as Week 2 arrives.

Also, the upside is significant.

Big 12 teams are underdogs in five of the six games against the ACC, Big Ten and SEC, and double-digit underdogs in three.

Here's a look at the six in chronological order:

Missouri at Kansas (Friday at 5 p.m. on Fox): The Jayhawks are 6.5-point underdogs in the latest installment of the Border War series. Quarterback Isaiah Marshall was efficient against Long Island. If he plays well against a Missouri defense devoid of premier SEC talent, KU could produce an upset.

Oregon at Oklahoma State (9 a.m. on ESPN): The Cowboys own the only ghastly loss for the Big 12 thus far, their 24-10 implosion against Tulsa. We thought first-year coach Eric Morris would orchestrate a rapid recovery, and he still might deliver. But the process won't start Saturday as an 18.5-point underdog. The likelihood of a blowout loss is high.

Arizona State at Texas A&M (9 a.m. on ABC): The Sun Devils are 14.5-point underdogs in College Station. If you're looking for one of the Big 12's biggest dogs to deliver a stunning result, ASU should be atop the list of candidates. Coach Kenny Dillingham thrives in this situation.

UCF at Pittsburgh (12:30 p.m. on ESPN2): The key to victory for the Knights, who are 7.5-point underdogs, is slowing Pitt's Mason Heintschel, one of the best low-profile quarterbacks in the country. This affair doesn't have the weight of the head-to-heads against the Big Ten and SEC, but it could be relevant in the CFP selection process.

Iowa State at Iowa (4:30 p.m. on NBC): The Cyclones are 13.5-point underdogs without former coach Matt Campbell on the sideline. In our view, that isn't nearly enough given the location of the game and Iowa State's roster overhaul. The Cy-Hawk series is typically close. This could be an exception.

Arkansas at Utah (7:15 p.m. on ESPN): The Utes are favored by 12.5 points against an opponent that struggled to put away North Alabama and is adjusting to first-year coach Ryan Silverfield's system. If it's close midway through the fourth quarter, something has gone wrong for the hosts.

For those rendering judgment this weekend on the Big 12's performance — and that's probably everyone — we suggest the following categories:

— Undeniable success: Utah, Kansas, UCF and either Iowa State or Arizona State win. No blowout losses. Oklahoma State hangs with Oregon.

— Not awful: Utah wins and either Arizona State beats Texas A&M or UCF and Kansas both win. Iowa State loses a close game. Oklahoma State avoids humiliation.

— Gut punch: Utah is the lone winner. Arizona State, Kansas and UCF aren't close in the fourth quarter. Iowa State and Oklahoma State are embarrassed.

— Apocalyptic: Everyone loses.

Regardless of how the weekend shakes out, the Big 12 will know exactly where it stands relative to its Power Four peers by the close of business Saturday night.

Related topics