Pick Six Previews: Utah's defense to fall to USC's offensive firepower

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah's run of dominance over UCLA was snapped Saturday in the Rose Bowl as the Utes suffered a 42-32 loss.

The Utes came in on a five-game win streak in the series, with an average margin of victory of 26 points. Not only was the UCLA series streak ended but defending Pac-12 champs Utah were riding an eight-game conference win streak until Saturday's loss.

Fifth-year starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson got revenge in the form of 307 yards and five total touchdowns, and UCLA ascended to the top of the Pac-12 title race. He led a balanced attack — 203 yards rushing and 299 yards passing — that the usually-stout Utah defense simply could not stop.

The total numbers were impressive, but the per-play view is even more dominant: UCLA averaged 8.2 yards per play.

Utah fell to 4-2 overall (2-1 Pac-12) at the halfway point but must quickly rebound because their hardest test comes Saturday night. USC is undefeated and 6-0 for the first time since the back end of the Pete Carroll dynasty (2006). Lincoln Riley made the surprise move from one blueblood program to another and brought his Oklahoma staff and best offensive weapons with him to Los Angeles. Riley then dominated the transfer portal cycle and signed the No. 1 rated transfer class.

In the blink of an eye, USC is "back," and their high-powered offense is already one of the nation's best.

This was the two-week stretch that was set to define Utah's 2022 season; and after losing the first round to UCLA, the USC game becomes even more pivotal. The playoff dream is done, but Utah still has major goals on the table: defending the Pac-12 title, notching a double-digit win season, and returning to the Rose Bowl.

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-Year Average 2019-21: Utah 68.9 (7th) | USC 57.3 (22nd of 66 Power Five)
2021 Season: Utah 69.5 (7th) | USC 45.3 (43rd of 66 Power Five)
2022 Season: Utah 66.4 (17th) | USC 77.3 (7th of 66 Power Five)

The UCLA loss dropped Utah nine spots from No. 8 to No. 17 in 2022 Game Grader. Excluding Clark Phillips' pick six late in the game, this was a 17-point margin and UCLA was moving the ball at-will all game.

USC checks in at No. 7 in 2022 Game Grader. They have an average margin of victory of 21.5 points per game, and an average yardage differential of 115 yards per game. Oregon State was the only team to draw USC to within a score.

USC with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

USC Offense: 16th of 66 Power Five
Utah Defense: 40th of 66 Power Five

USC quarterback Caleb Williams has played near-perfect football and is currently tied with TCU's Max Duggan for the best touchdown-to-interception ratio in Power Five (14-to-1). Williams is elusive in the pocket, makes throws that seem impossible, and has arm strength that stands out.

Of course, it helps throwing to his arsenal of receivers. Through the transfer portal, Riley assembled one of the best receiving corps in America, headlined by Biletnikoff winner Jordan Addison, Mario Williams and Brenden Rice.

Utah has struggled against mobile quarterbacks in their two losses, and Williams adds that element by shouldering nine carries per game and always has the threat of a scramble. Worse, the Utes defense is reeling after allowing 42 points last week. UCLA's middle seven possessions resulted in: touchdown, touchdown, missed field goal, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah Offense: 23rd of 66 Power Five
USC Defense: 35th of 66 Power Five

Cam Rising still holds the No. 2 spot in Pac-12 QB Rating, but the offense had two costly turnovers and continues to struggle in the red zone and in short-yardage situations.

The offense took a hit when do-it-all Brant Kuithe was lost for the season, and as a whole the surrounding receiver group needs to step up. In the run game, I was impressed with how hard Tavion Thomas carried the ball against UCLA despite some off-field lingering issues.

Utah holds a Top 25 rushing ranking (5.1 yards per carry) and will have the decisive advantage against USC's 105th ranked rushing defense. They need to capitalize in that matchup because the pass game appears to be strength vs. strength.

USC is ranked No. 14 in the all-encompassing Opponent QB Rating, while Utah/Rising is ranked No. 18. Dalton Kincaid and Devaughn Vele will need to win their one-on-one balls and perform at their best.

Game prediction

Look for another high-scoring game but for USC's offensive firepower to take over. After the collapse last week, Utah's defense remains a major question mark. While USC's defense is rated similarly in Pick Six Previews' opponent-adjusted, per-play percentiles, the difference is that USC leads the nation by far with a +14 turnover margin.

The rowdy night crowd in Rice-Eccles Stadium will certainly benefit the Utes, but here at the halfway point I am picking USC's offense as the deciding factor.

USC 37 | Utah 34

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