Pick Six Previews: BYU, Bear Bachmeier will be too much for UCF to handle

PROVO — In Provo's first-ever top 10 vs. top 10 matchup, with ESPN's "College GameDay" in town, BYU defeated No. 2 Notre Dame 28-24 in epic fashion.

BYU was without 2025 Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year LJ Martin, but quarterback Bear Bachmeier willed his team to victory. Bachmeier ran in two touchdowns, caught a touchdown off a trick play, and then threw the game-winner over the middle to tight end Walker Lyons with two minutes left.

Notre Dame had six plays inside the BYU 20-yard line in the final minute, but BYU's defense held them out of the end zone all six times, including the game's final incomplete pass in the back corner of the end zone. Thousands of BYU fans, students, and alumni immediately poured onto the field to celebrate one of the school's biggest wins.

Not only did the win get BYU to a perfect 6-0 start, it also vaulted them up to No. 2 in the Associated Press poll for their highest ranking since being named 1984 national champions.

BYU gets back to Big 12 play with a road trip to Orlando against UCF (1:30 p.m. MT, FOX).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2023-25): BYU 55.3 (28th of 68 Power 4) | UCF 48.3 (38th)
2025 season: BYU 63.4 (19th) | UCF 41.9 (52nd)
2026 season: BYU 70.2 (11th) | UCF 45.8 (48th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected BYU to finish second in the Big 12 race, and the Cougars earned a preseason top-25 ranking with my No. 17 spot. After a 6-0 start, BYU has moved up to No. 11.

I selected UCF to finish ninth in the Big 12, and they are 3-3 overall so far. UCF beat TCU 21-13 in its Big 12 opener, but then blew a 17-0 lead to lose 27-17 to Houston. They lost to Oklahoma State 42-28 in a close game that was blown open by a backward pass returned for a touchdown.

BYU with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

BYU offense: 10th of 68 Power 4
UCF defense: 14th of 68 Power 4

Bachmeier has picked up the slack without Martin in the backfield, with his hat-trick of touchdowns via rushing, receiving and passing. Bachmeier went 23-of-36 for 224 yards and a touchdown, posting a better statistical passing game than his counterpart CJ Carr, who is drawing NFL first-round buzz.

The pass-catchers have been excellent in 2026, turning an offseason uncertainty into a team strength. Freshman Legend Glasker continues to shine with explosive plays, Lyons and Roger Saleapaga form a strong tight end duo, and Kyle Kasper and Jojo Phillips make it a complete room.

Without its workhorse back in Martin, BYU will, again, go pass-heavy on Saturday. UCF's strength is their run defense, which ranks in the top 40 in rushing per game (39th), yards per carry (27th) and limiting explosive runs (12th). The pass defense is below average in all key stats and BYU should have success here.

UCF with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

UCF offense: 55th of 68 Power 4
BYU defense: 3rd of 68 Power 4

This offseason, UCF head coach Scott Frost went to the transfer portal for an impact starting quarterback, where he picked up Alonza Barnett, who came to UCF from James Madison with high grades. Barnett was knocked out of the Pittsburgh loss and has missed the last four games while recovering from a hamstring injury, and is listed as questionable for Saturday.

Despite coming off a bye week, UCF remains one of the most injured teams in the country, with 16 players named on their injury report. Meanwhile, BYU got back two injured defensive starters in Raider Damuni and Isaiah Glasker, and the unit was excellent against Notre Dame. A pair of BYU special teams blunders — a failed fake punt, and a muffed punt — put Notre Dame in the red zone, but both times the BYU defense held them to field goals.

On a per-play basis, BYU ranks No. 3 overall on defense — No. 8 passing and No. 18 rushing — and this is a clear advantage to BYU on this side of the ball. UCF's offense has been below average in almost every stat category, and this opposing defense is not the one where they will find a breakthrough.

Game prediction

BYU is riding a 29-4 run since the start of the 2024 season and have thrived in their Power 4Four conference upgrade. UCF has not, where the Knights are just 8-22 vs. Big 12 opponents since entering the league.

Statistically, it will be strength vs. strength when BYU has the ball, but the wide spread of playmakers in the pass game will be too much for UCF to handle. Eventually, BYU will land a few explosive vertical shots, and will cash in for touchdowns on their red zone trips with Bachmeier winning the short-yardage spots.

BYU 28 | UCF 14

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