Pick Six Previews: Utah to get revenge over Florida in season opener

SALT LAKE CITY — The best time of the year is upon us, and Utah has the honor of officially kicking off the 2023 college football season in primetime Thursday night.

The two-time defending Pac-12 champs welcome in Florida for a rematch of last season's opener, a 29-26 nail-biter that saw Utah struggle to score in the red zone and throw an interception in the end zone on the final play.

National pundits were focused on the humidity of The Swamp being the deciding factor, but instead it was an uncharacteristically "sloppy" performance plagued by missed tackles by Utah's defense.

This time, Utah hopes the home field advantage swings back in its favor, as the Rice-Eccles Stadium sellout streak enters its 14th season. Yes, Utah has sold out all 76 home games since the start of the 2010 season. They also hold the fourth longest home win streak in Power Five (14 straight), trailing only Alabama (20), Georgia (18) and Michigan (15).

The main storyline for Utah in 2023 is whether it can complete the three-peat as conference champions in the Pac-12's final season. In my annual college football preview magazine Pick Six Previews, Utah is my selection to win the Pac-12. While most publications selected USC (again), Utah continues to prove me right and is a key reason why I've been able to win the 10-year, five-year, and three-year national prediction accuracy titles.

Before the three-peat race gets underway, Utah faces one of the nation's toughest nonconference slates. The first of two Power Five matchups is Thursday night (6 p.m. MDT, ESPN) in the national spotlight.

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2020-22): Utah 66.9 (6th) | Florida 57.1 (23rd of 69 Power Five)
2022 season: Utah 69.2 (10th) | Florida 48.4 (43rd of 69 Power Five)
2023 preseason: Utah (8th ) | Florida (33rd of 69 Power Five)

A decade ago, you'd have been called crazy for predicting that over the last three, five, and 10 years, Utah has been a more consistent and more successful program than Florida.

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. Utah stacked another national Top 10 finish last year, and thanks to the high amount of returning production, program-record recruiting classes, and proven coaching staff, they bump up two spots to No. 8 in my 2023 preseason magazine.

Florida went 6-7 last year and lost to all four of their primary rivals — Florida State, Tennessee, Georgia and LSU — and did so by allowing 42.5 points per game. The Gators also lost to Vanderbilt and were blown out by Oregon State in the bowl game. They do get a 10-spot boost from last year's No. 43 ranking thanks to a second-year coach bonus and their run of Top 15 recruiting classes.

Florida with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Florida offense (2022): 26th of 69 Power Five
Utah defense (2022): 34th of 69 Power Five

Electric dual-threat quarterback Anthony Richardson was selected fourth overall in the latest NFL draft. Even more change is underway in the trenches as four starters depart, including first team All-American and NFL first rounder O'Cyrus Torrence. Three of the team's top five receivers are also gone.

This is too much change to call for another Top 25 caliber offense. With Richardson gone, the staff pulled in three-year Wisconsin starter Graham Mertz who has the five-star billing but failed to ever crack the league's top five in QB Rating. Aside from a clear strength at running back — the duo of Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne placed No. 14 in my national RB unit ranks — this offense has questions all over the starting lineup.

Utah returns the bulk of its 2022 defensive lineup, and ace coordinator Morgan Scalley thrives when he has a veteran unit. The young defense grew in real time last season and rides that momentum into 2023. Over the first seven games, Utah's defensive rank in my opponent-adjusted, per-play metric was 45th of 69 Power Five teams. Over the final seven games, that rank surged up to 25th.

A key reason for the defensive growth was along the defensive line, and I expect Utah to win this line-of-scrimmage battle against a new-look Florida offensive line. While the running backs pose threats, there are fewer playmakers on the outsides to challenge the Utah secondary.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense (2022): 28th of 69 Power Five
Florida defense (2022): 40th of 69 Power Five

The storyline for Utah's offense has been the health of two-time champion quarterback Cam Rising. He was knocked out of the Rose Bowl, and the rehab has been on schedule but not enough to be cleared.

Though he is listed as a starter on the depth chart, if he cannot play it will be either Bryson Barnes or Nate Johnson. Barnes led the win over Washington State last season and was effective in both of the past two Rose Bowl games, while Johnson brings sprinter speed and was used in run-heavy wildcat packages last year as a true freshman.

Coordinator Andy Ludwig has proven to be sharp at game planning and play design, and I am confident the quarterback spot will be ready for kickoff. Utah's "O-Block" offensive line was one of just four units to place in the Top 15 of both my OL Run Push and Pass Protection Sack Rate last year. Three starters are back from that group, and I expect Utah to establish a consistent run game Thursday night.

Florida's defense had a poor statistical showing in 2022 and faced another coordinator change this offseason.

Game prediction

Florida is making its first nonconference road trip outside the state of Florida since 1991 (at Syracuse). Utah is my pick to win the Pac-12 in 2023, has the advantage over Florida at almost every position, and will get revenge for last season's opening loss. With or without Rising, Utah is my pick Thursday night in a camera-shaking Rice-Eccles Stadium.

No. 14 Utah 28 | Florida 20

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