Pick Six Previews: A midseason analytical look at the Utes' 2022 season

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah heads into the bye week with a 5-2 record after defeating No. 7 USC 43-42 in an all-time Rice-Eccles Stadium thriller.

As part of my weekly series covering the 2022 Utah season, I'll take the bye week as an opportunity to review how the Utes rank in several of my metrics at Pick Six Previews.

Game Grader

No. 15 of 66 Power Five (compared to No. 7 in 2021)

Game Grader measures statistical dominance and adjusts for opponent strength. The decisive 21-point win over Arizona State (+200 yardage) and the 26-point win over Oregon State laid a strong foundation, and then the USC win helped boost Utah back into the Top 15. The pair of losses knocked Utah down from playoff caliber.

Offensive Percentiles

No. 19 of 66 Power Five (compared to 17th in 2021)

When the "total offense" stat is presented in yards per game, it doesn't tell the whole story — 500 yards gained against Georgia is much different than 500 yards gained against Vanderbilt; additionally, 500 yards gained on 80 snaps is less impressive than 500 gained on 50 snaps.

Instead, my Offensive Percentiles evaluate on a per-play basis and also adjust for opponent (defense) strength. Utah checks in again in the Top 20 like last season, and this was without do-it-all star Brant Kuithe. Compared to what their opposing defenses allow on average, Utah has out-performed each one.

Defensive Percentiles

No. 49 of 66 Power Five (compared to 16th in 2021)

The defensive version of the above metric shows a large decline for Utah year-over-year. A slight dropoff was expected after losing a first-round linebacker and several veteran starters. But Utah has proven to more of a "reloading" defense under ace coordinator Morgan Scalley. Look for an improvement here over the back half of the season as newer starters settle in.

Utah was 23rd here at the end of September, but the two Los Angeles offenses sunk them down to 49th.

Offensive Line Run Push

No. 15 of 131 FBS teams (compared to 2nd in 2021)

This stat takes the normal yards per carry number and focuses in on the opportunities created by the offensive line within 10 yards of the line-of-scrimmage. Beyond 10 yards, you could argue those yards are more earned by the back's playmaking ability in the open field.

Offensive Line Pass Protection

No. 7 of 131 FBS teams (compared to 3rd in 2021)

Utah is currently in the Top 10 in Sack Rate by allowing just five sacks out of 224 pass attempts. That 2.2% is seventh in FBS, fourth in Power Five, and third in the Pac-12 behind nation-leading Oregon (0.5%) and Washington (1.7%). This should be no surprise, as offensive line coach Jim Harding is one of the best in the game and last season had Utah's O-line ranked in the top three in both my offensive line metrics Pass Protection and Run Push.

Explosive Passing (Offense)

No. 73 of 131 FBS teams (compared to 103rd in 2021)

The Utes offense jumped up 30 spots here thanks to more frequent vertical shots in the pass game. This stat reflects more about the offense's style — coordinator Andy Ludwig and quarterback Cam Rising are excellent with the short and intermediate routes, which are obviously strengths for the offense overall, but that style lowers this specific stat.

Explosive Rushing (Offense)

No. 40 of 131 FBS teams (compared to 11th in 2021)

The run game has had a slight decline within the tackle box, and another decline here in long-yardage "explosive" runs. Interestingly, Utah leads the Pac-12 in 20+ yard runs but is dead last in the 30+ and 40+ categories.

Negative Play Rate (Defense)

No. 44 of 131 FBS teams (compared to 21st in 2021)

This one is a surprise. Known as "Sack Lake City" for their trend of leading the conference in sacks, Utah finds themselves with a middle-of-the-pack rank this season. Negative Play Rate measures the frequency of plays made behind the line of scrimmage (sacks and tackles for loss) in proportion to number of snaps faced.

Opponent QB Rating (Defense)

No. 57 of 131 FBS teams (compared to 53rd in 2021)

I prefer this stat when discussing passing defense because it puts the stats into a per-play perspective. Giving up 300 passing yards may sound below average, but against an Air Raid offense that attempts 60 passes that game, it becomes impressive. Here in the all-encompassing pass defense measure, Utah is right on par with the 2021 team. Not shown here is the stellar play by All-American candidate Clark Phillips III who is in the running for "Mr. Pick Six" — tied for the nation lead with two of them.

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