Hotline Week 9 picks: Arizona wins, USC covers, Oregon State rolls

Welcome to the Hotline's weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the most intriguing matchups across the West and the top games nationally. Betting lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com unless noted otherwise. (Games involving FCS teams not included.) I went 5-6-1 last week and am 50-46-3 for the season (52.1%). Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren't.

The only thing better than watching a stacked Saturday of college football is watching a stacked Saturday of college football and then indulging in the leftover Halloween treats.

The Hotline has always favored chocolate bars but acknowledges the merits of the hard and chewy candies. The late, great Mike Leach was onto something when he spoke glowingly about Nerds Clusters during a post-game interview.

With that in mind, allow us to present college coaches as Halloween candy:

Arizona's Brent Brennan: Snickers. If the coordinators (Seth Doege and Danny Gonzales) are the peanuts and caramel, Brennan's the chocolate that makes it all work at an elite level.

Arizona State's Kenny Dillingham: Skittles. Relentless energy and extremely popular with the younger generation.

Boise State's Spencer Danielson: 100 Grand. Highly under-appreciated and, in our view, one of the very best.

BYU's Kalani Sitake: Milky Way. Somewhat old school, impossible to dislike and deserving of more support from its manufacturer.

Cal's Tosh Lupoi: Tootsie Rolls. Tough at first but worth the wait (or so Cal fans better hope).

Colorado's Deion Sanders: Candy Corn. Perhaps the most polarizing candy on the market and, some would say, past its prime.

Oregon's Dan Lanning: Reese's Mini Peanut Butter Cups. Lanning has lost more than 20 pounds this fall due to stress but remains very, very good.

Oregon State's JaMarcus Shephard: Starburst. A rising star in the coaching industry who ... wait for it! ... has burst onto the scene.

Stanford's Tavita Pritchard. Nerds. Duh.

UCLA's Bob Chesney: M&Ms. Always good, regardless of circumstances or location, in all flavors.

USC's Lincoln Riley: 3 Musketeers. Looks impressive on the outside but all fluff in the middle. (This is so obvious that, frankly, the comparison feels a tad trite.)

Utah's Morgan Scalley: KitKat White Creme Wafer. Delicious new version of an absolute legend with distinctive layers.

Washington's Jedd Fisch: Smarties. Like the man who has worked for 12 teams in the past 20 years, Smarties don't last long.

Washington State's Kirby Moore: Butterfinger. We aren't sure what to make of it.

To the picks ...

(All times Pacific)

Cal (+7) at NC State

Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ACC Network

Comment: The Bears are flying across the country for a second consecutive week but will face an opponent that 1) just lost to Stanford and 2) just fired its coach. No way the Bears get overrun in Raleigh by a leaderless opponent, despite how poorly they have played most weeks. Pick: Cal

Arizona (+3.5) at Texas Tech

Kickoff: 9 a.m. on ESPN

Comment: The Wildcats recently walloped the team (Cincinnati) that thumped the Red Raiders just last week. Although the locations have changed, the trends will stay the same: Texas Tech is worse than advertised; Arizona is better than advertised; and the visitors have Noah Fifita. Pick: Arizona

Stanford (+22.5) at Louisville

Kickoff: 12:15 p.m. on ACC Network

Comment: The Cardinal (color) have lost three road games by 133 points. The Cardinals (bird) aren't in the same class as Wake Forest or Notre Dame, which hung 50-burgers on Stanford. But they are close enough to that level to win handily. Pick: Louisville

Florida (+11.5) vs. Georgia

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ABC

Comment: The Cocktail Party has been moved indoors, to Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium, because of facility renovations in Jacksonville. We think the Bulldogs, who had two weeks to stew over their loss to Auburn, will use this as the proverbial get-right game. Pick: Georgia

Arizona State (+16) at BYU

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Fox

Comment: For all the improvement the Sun Devils displayed last weekend against Kansas State, their two shortcomings — wobbly quarterback play and limited physicality — are more problematic in Provo than perhaps anywhere else in the Big 12. Also, the Cougars will be ornery after the loss at UCF. Pick: BYU

Northwestern (+3.5) at Oregon

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Peacock

Comment: Based on how the teams have played in recent weeks, the Wildcats should be favored. Anytime betting lines make absolutely no sense, we take note. Chip Kelly's return to Eugene, as Northwestern's playcaller, won't be enjoyable. Pick: Oregon

Utah (-6.5) at Cincinnati

Kickoff: 12:45 p.m. on ESPN

Comment: Fascinating offsets here: Yes, Utah is making the long trip after a taxing win (over Houston), but the Bearcats are coming off an upset of Texas Tech and the subsequent field-storming. If those factors cancel each other out and we're left with tactics and personnel as the determinants, the advantage swings to the Utes. Pick: Utah

Purdue (+7.5) at Penn State

Kickoff: 1:15 p.m. on Big Ten Network

Comment: This matchup jumped off the VegasInsider.com screen because the line is something out of a bygone era. The Boilermakers no longer stink, but the Nittany Lions do. Pick: Purdue

Washington State (+2.5) at San Diego State

Kickoff: 4 p.m. on CBS Sports Network

Comment: The Aztecs have been bad on the road but solid at home; the Cougars have been awful everywhere. If the hosts get to 17, they should cover ... handily. Pick: San Diego State

Ohio State (-6.5) at USC

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC

Comment: How will the Trojans respond to their dreary performance at Wisconsin? Fairly well, we suspect. How will the Buckeyes perform without quarterback Julian Sayin? That's far from certain. Sure, they have No. 4 (Jeremiah Smith), but someone has to get him the ball often enough for the nation's best player to make an impact. Pick: USC

Washington (+7.5) at Nebraska

Kickoff: 5 p.m. on Big Ten Network

Comment: The Huskers pushed Indiana to the brink a few weeks ago. But if Washington's quarterback play (Demond Williams or Elijah Brown) is free of turnovers -- that's a big ask, from what we have seen lately — this should be competitive throughout. Pick: Washington

Texas State (+11.5) at Boise State

Kickoff: 7 p.m. on The CW

Comment: Texas State's wobbly defense is no match for the Broncos' balanced, relentless offense. Close early. Not close late. Pick: Boise State

Oregon State (-6) at Fresno State

Kickoff: 8 p.m. on The CW

Comment: Are the Beavers a true steamroller? Did they spend too much time during the bye week basking in the accolades? This is their toughest test since facing Texas Tech in Week 2. We see a few speed bumps but no barricades. Pick: Oregon State

Straight-up winners: Cal, Arizona, Louisville, Georgia, BYU, Oregon, Utah, Purdue, San Diego State, Ohio State, Nebraska, Boise State and Oregon State

Five-star special: Oregon State. In a difficult environment, the Beavers will prove they are a worthy challenger to Boise State in the Pac-12 and a legitimate contender for the playoff.