Utah's 2024 fire season is fully loaded and forecasting danger. Here's why

SALT LAKE CITY — After consecutive wet winter seasons in Utah, an overwhelming amount of new fuel is available, and the stage is set for a potentially dangerous fire season. Jim Wallmann, a meteorologist with the National Interagency Fire Center said the slow start to the season is expected to pick up. "We're expecting a busier season than we've seen in the last two years," he said. "Especially in the Great Basin." Technically, Utah's wildfire season runs from July 1 to Oct. 1, and the season's height hovers around August and early September. As time dredges on, fuels are baked by the heat, drying them out and making them more susceptible to spreading a sparked flame. This is typical of any summer, but 2024's forecast looks to be slightly different. "I mean, wet winters lead to a lot more growth and a lot more grass," Wallmann said. "We have a lot of grass in the lower elevations from the past two wet winters and that's going to be a big concern." Winter in 2023 was a record-breaking year, with a statewide snowpack of 208% above normal, compared to the 2024 season which was still 131% above normal. Both combined provide a lot of "fuel loading," which is the term that fire forecasters use to explain the amount of vegetation that has grown, dried and is available to burn. Despite the flourishing snowpack, the 2023 summer season didn't turn out to be a total burnout, thanks in part to a lingering wet spring that pushed back the fire season altogether. But Wallmann said there's another huge reason. "What mitigated a lot of the concerns last summer too was the remnants of Hurricane Hillary came right up in mid-August," he said. Therefore, the luck that brought the 2023 season to a safe close may not display itself in the forecast again. "If you have any, even a little bit of dry lightning, what you may think is not a bad season can change really quickly," Wallmann said. The deciding factor will be a mix of mother nature, and communities doing their part to stay safe.

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