East Coast eyes strengthening nor'easter already battering Mid-Atlantic shores

An early fall nor'easter is gathering strength along the central East Coast, pounding beaches in several states with heavy surf and threatening to bring coastal flooding, wind and rain to parts of the Northeast through the weekend.

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The nor'easter, named for the direction its punishing winds come from, currently sits several hundred miles off the Mid-Atlantic coast and will begin to track north and strengthen over the next two days.

But exactly how close it lumbers along the coast remains uncertain, and even a small change in its track could make a big difference in how much punch the storm delivers when it arrives in the Northeast late Friday or early Saturday.

Coastal flooding and hammering winds are already underway from North Carolina and Virginia to New Jersey, the start of a dayslong coastal flood and erosion threat that will extend into New England as the storm ramps up. The coincidence of the full moon Saturday is compounding the problem by raising high tide levels day by day.

Here's what's in store as the nor'easter develops.

New England gets the brunt of it

Forecast models have waffled back and forth for days but have recently settled on putting New England and Long Island, New York, in the bull's-eye of the storm's most significant rain and wind this weekend.

Potent wind gusts, significant coastal flooding and heavy rain are possible in these areas, but that could shift depending on exactly where the storm sets up.

Boston and Providence, Rhode Island, are a couple of the cities where wet and windy conditions will ramp up by Friday night or Saturday morning.

New York City looks to be on the storm's western edge, outside of its most intense conditions but close enough to see showers and breezy conditions by Saturday night. The storm could take a bigger bite if its track shifts closer to the Big Apple.

Coastal portions of New England and Long Island will likely encounter the strongest winds, with gusts over 40 mph possible. A high wind watch is in effect for coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island, where wind gusts could reach 50 mph.

The wind will also rough up seas considerably and cause some beach erosion and coastal flooding at high tide Friday into Saturday.

Rain could also cause some flooding on roads in southeastern New England. Portions of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island could see 2 to 4 inches of rain this weekend, with the hardest hit areas seeing up to 5 inches.

The storm could affect parts of the Northeast into Sunday or Monday. It'll likely be past its peak strength by then, but coastal flooding, rainfall and breezy conditions could still persist.

Coastal flooding underway in Mid-Atlantic

Coastal flooding is a lock in the Mid-Atlantic through the end of this week regardless of what the nor'easter does in the Northeast because of two other factors.

The first is a strong area of high pressure over eastern Canada that's sending crisp and chilly air to the Northeast. High temperatures in the region are forecast to only climb up to the 60s into the weekend as a result.

That high pressure and the burgeoning nor'easter are squeezing the air between them, increasing wind speeds along the East Coast.

The second factor at play: a full moon. Tide levels will climb higher each day until they hit their monthly peak around Saturday's full moon. Higher water levels and stronger winds are the exact combination needed for serious coastal flooding.

Coastal areas of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey experienced some flooding Wednesday, with a few locations in southeast Virginia reaching major flood stage. Additional bouts are expected there through Friday or even Saturday.

Many locations will experience at least moderate inundation of ocean water and some places could see major flooding. The flooding and pounding surf day after day will likely result in significant beach erosion as well.

Parts of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey could also see some light to moderate rain showers depending on how far east the storm system travels.