Could a 'Super El Niño' deliver a big winter for Utah? Forecasters and resorts weigh in

PARK CITY — Utah ski resorts are already setting opening dates for the upcoming winter season as meteorologists monitor what could become one of the strongest El Niño events on record.

Park City Mountain Resort has set a target opening date of Nov. 20, the Friday before Thanksgiving, and resort officials are encouraged by forecasts calling for a "Super El Niño."

"Pretty consistent, reliable day to be able to target and be ready to welcome skiers and riders back to the resort," said John Kanaly with the resort. "It is a forecast, there is no guarantee. But looking at the projections that we can see, there's definitely at least some reason to have some excitement that we could be in for some decent powder this year."

Forecaster Evan Thayer, who works for weather forecasting platform OpenSnow and Ski Utah, said he's confident we will have a strong El Niño.

"Right now, there is a chance this could be the strongest El Niño we've ever seen in modern meteorological history, and maybe as far back as 500 years, we haven't seen an El Niño this strong," he said.

Its impacts in Utah are less predictable.

"Utah is kind of a mid-latitude state," Thayer said. "So while it does move generally the areas of higher precipitation farther south, because we're somewhat in the middle, it doesn't actually have a huge correlation to precipitation amounts."

That uncertainty means a blockbuster ski season is far from guaranteed.

The few past Super El Niño winters in Utah have produced dramatically different outcomes for the state. The winter of 1982-1983 brought exceptional snowfall and contributed to the historic State Street flooding in Salt Lake City. However, Thayer said another powerful El Niño during the winter of 2015-16 resulted in slightly below-normal snowpack.

"The hope is that there's a little bit more correlation with these really strong El Niño events to get more precipitation extending farther north," Thayer said. "Southern Utah has a higher chance of that happening."

Even if storms increase, warmer temperatures could limit snow accumulation.

"El Niño does have a tendency to increase our temperatures," Thayer said. "So I do have a bit of concern that even if we do see that higher-than-normal precipitation, we could see closer to normal snowpack or at least suffering snowpack."

Forecasters say seasonal trends suggest El Niño winters can get off to a slow start before strengthening later in the season.

"There is some evidence to suggest that El Niño typically starts slow," Thayer said. "Then as you get farther into the winter in February and March, that's when the impacts hit the strongest."

That possibility worries some in the ski industry after a lackluster start to the previous season.

"There's a little bit of concern," Thayer said. "I would say that we might have a slower start to this winter, and that would be disappointing, especially after we had a very slow start to last winter."

Resort officials remain optimistic while acknowledging the uncertainty.

"We're looking at how we can blow snow, make snow on runs that are going to connect one terrain pod to another so that we can start spreading out guests faster," Kanaly said. "As soon as we have those snow making temperatures, we're going to get those snow guns going, and we're going to start building a base so that we can make a great skiing and riding surface."

Thayer said it's hard to know when the Super El Niño will arrive.

"If you start hearing news about heavy rains hitting areas generally to the south of Utah, southern California, the desert Southwest and the southern U.S., or if you start to hear more about droughts internationally or in the northern tier of the U.S., the Pacific Northwest, for example, those are signs that El Niño is here and its effects are starting to impact lots of us," Thayer said.

Thayer said El Niño's impacts in Utah are still uncertain.

"Seasonal forecasting is a very, very difficult thing to do," he said. "But no matter what happens, Utah has great skiing. Our worst years are still better than a lot of places."

The state's snow conditions will be closely watched this winter as Olympic snowboarder Shaun White's Snow League competition is scheduled to come to Park City Mountain in January.

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