Cyclosporiasis outbreak hits Taco Bell sales, unlikely to cause lasting scar, analysts say

WASHINGTON — The United States' largest foodborne illness outbreak in recent years, linked to shredded lettuce served at some Taco Bell eateries, may ​dent the fast food chain's sales but is unlikely to cause any long-lasting damage to the brand, analysts said.

U.S. health officials are investigating the source of the cyclosporiasis outbreak, which has sickened thousands of people in Michigan and four other states. The Food and Drug Administration ‌has linked the parasite, cyclospora, to a Taylor Farms plant in Mexico.

However, Mexico said on Tuesday that there was no evidence yet to suggest that lettuce sourced from it caused the outbreak in the ⁠United States.

Foot traffic at Taco Bell — owned by Yum Brands — was down ​29.8% as on Saturday, July 18, compared with the average traffic on all ⁠Saturdays from Jan. 1 through July 6, according to Placer.ai, a company that gathers foot traffic data.

"Wary consumers may temporarily take their appetites elsewhere to sidestep ‌any perceived health risk," said Morningstar analyst ‌Ari Felhandler.

Shares of Yum Brands fell nearly 10% last week after Taco Bell's link to the outbreak emerged. The company is ⁠scheduled to report quarterly results as soon as next week.

Analysts and consultants said the outbreak would ⁠need to persist for months to materially damage the brand. They pointed to McDonald's, which returned to growth within a few quarters of the 2024 E. coli outbreak linked to one of its most popular menu items.

Taco Bell has said it removed potentially affected lettuce from restaurants in select states as a precaution and stopped using iceberg lettuce supplied by Taylor Farms nationwide while the investigation continues.

"They are already making the right moves," said Izzy Kharasch, president of Hospitality Works. "This type of action, in addition to lots of communication to the public, will get them back on track ‌sooner rather than later."

Analysts predict short-term impact

The Tex-Mex chain has been a key driver of Yum's growth, outperforming ​many rivals despite broader weakness in the restaurant industry. A long-term dip in its sales would amount to a big hit in overall revenue.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, for instance, took years to rebuild customer confidence and restore sales after a series of foodborne illness outbreaks in 2015.

David Mayer, senior partner at global brand and design consultancy Lippincott, brushed such concerns aside. "People have very short-term memories," he said. "The most important thing for Taco Bell is that there is no additional food poisoning incident within the next 12 months."

A few Taco Bell customers Reuters spoke with echoed the sentiment.

Firefighter Shai Bialer said he was confident restaurants would quickly discard the affected lettuce because they feared lawsuits. "This is the only fast food I like," Bialer said, as he ​ate a bean burrito without lettuce at a Taco Bell in West Orange, New Jersey.

Spice distributor Benny Tejeda, who has a standing biweekly Taco Bell date with his father when the pair ‌makes a delivery ‌at a nearby market, said ⁠the tradition meant too much to him to skip. Tejeda is skeptical of the seriousness of the outbreak, saying he struggles to trust government agencies like the FDA to disseminate accurate information.

Transparency reassurances

Other fast food chains are also protectively communicating with customers.

Salad chains Sweetgreen and Chopt posted notices emphasizing that they do not use iceberg lettuce, while Chipotle highlighted to app users that it does not serve shredded iceberg lettuce. Just Salad separately emailed customers saying it does not use iceberg, pre-cut ‌or shredded lettuce.

At a New Jersey Chipotle ​outlet on Tuesday, Caleb Rinn, 23, said he had forgotten all about the outbreak when ‌he ordered a burrito bowl with lettuce.

Rinn said ⁠he is only mildly concerned. "No ​one has died from this," he said. Then, pausing, he said, "Right?"

Contributing: Anuja Bharat Mistry

Related topics