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PROVO — BYU made the big transition from independence up to the Power Four level and took some expected growing pains.
They were not alone, as the four Big 12 newcomers — BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF — combined to go just 4-24 against the legacy Big 12 teams. With a struggling offense, BYU ended up missing a bowl game for the first time since 2017, and just the second time since 2004.
The big storyline for BYU in 2024 is whether they see a second-year boost, now a full year into their Power Four transition. It is also the second year for defensive coordinator Jay Hill and expected starting quarterback Jake Retzlaff. BYU hopes to see these dividends pay off.
The Big 12 expanded to bring in four Pac-12 teams, including BYU's bitter rival Utah, in the same league for the first time since the 2010 Mountain West. In the new 16-team conference, BYU checks in at No. 15 in my season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, and they will have to earn their wins again this fall.
But before Big 12 play kicks off, BYU opens up with an FCS opponent fresh off a playoff run. The Cougars host the Southern Illinois Salukis under the lights Saturday night in LaVell Edwards Stadium (6 p.m. MDT, ESPN+).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2021-23): BYU 45.3 (50th of 70 Power Four) | Southern Illinois (N/A – FCS)
2023 season: BYU 32.6 (63rd) | Southern Illinois (N/A – FCS)
2024 preseason: BYU (63rd) | Southern Illinois (N/A – FCS)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength, and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After peaking at No. 5 in 2020, BYU slid to No. 26 in 2021, and again to No. 50 in 2022.
Last season, during the Big 12 transition year, BYU fell all the way to the bottom 10 of the Power Four.
Southern Illinois finished 8-5 last season in the rigorous Missouri Valley Conference, earning both a top 25 final ranking and an FCS Playoff berth. They defeated Nicholls in the first round before losing to Idaho in the second round.
Head coach Nick Hill enters his ninth season here and brings back both coordinators.
Southern Illinois with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Southern Illinois offense (2023): 54th of 128 FCS teams
BYU defense (2023): 48th of 70 Power Four
Southern Illinois fielded an average offense last year by FCS standards and now have to replace their starting quarterback and pair of running backs. Hunter Simmons was the primary backup quarterback last year, but the staff added DJ Williams (Murray State) who was named the 2021 Ohio Valley Conference Freshman of the Year.
The proven unit is the offensive line as they return four starters — all over 300 pounds — and added two FBS linemen from the transfer portal.
The big storyline on defense this year for BYU is whether they will see dividends from the second year of defensive coordinator Jay Hill, who vowed to bring a more aggressive, attacking style of play to the "drop-eight" conservative defense here before him.
The transition year saw no change in my Negative Play rate that tracks disruption in the backfield, as BYU only moved up one spot, from No. 130 (of 133 FBS teams) to No. 129. Defensive lineman Tyler Batty is the headliner and he earned first-team All-Big 12 honors by Pick Six Previews.
BYU will neutralize SIU's biggest strength along the line of scrimmage, and the home team has a talent advantage elsewhere to jump on a new quarterback.
BYU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
BYU offense (2023): 69th of 70 Power Four
Southern Illinois defense (2023): 3rd of 128 FCS teams
Defense was the biggest strength for Southern Illinois' playoff team last year, as they only allowed 16.2 points per game, which was good for third in FCS. Seven starters from that unit are gone, including the entire defensive line. SIU did add four FBS defenders but none are defensive linemen.
BYU needs to show they can dominate the line of scrimmage against a new-look, FCS front. They rated dead last in FBS in my "run the ball, stop the run" metric that combines rushing offense and rushing defense to show how strong a program is in the trenches.
In order to return to bowl season, they need to improve their lines, and their high-quality depth.
The coaching staff has refused to announce the starting quarterback until kickoff, but coordinator Aaron Roderick said "we have a clear-cut starter right now" in Wednesday's press conference. Indications from BYU media are hinting at 2023 starter Jake Retzlaff retaining his spot.
Receivers coach Fesi Sitake calls it his deepest room yet as they return their top five from 2023. Chase Roberts led with 573 yards last year, Darius Lassiter is the best deep threat, Kody Epps and Parker Kingston return, and veteran Keanu Hill made the position switch to tight end.
BYU hopes for a better offensive season debut than last year's slow start against Sam Houston State.
Game prediction
BYU looks to launch their bounce-back season with a season-opening win. Power Four teams have talent advantages over FCS opponents, but this is a tougher draw than usual. Southern Illinois has made the FCS playoffs in three of the past four years, earned a No. 11 preseason ranking, and are battle-tested by playing in the rugged MVC.
Look for a BYU win but for a close game into the second half.
BYU 27 | Southern Illinois 17
