Pick Six Previews: Utah with slight edge over Oregon amid Bo Nix injury questions

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah dominated Stanford 42-7 Saturday night in Salt Lake City and extended their season record to 8-2. Stanford scored first, but Utah rattled off six unanswered touchdowns and won the yardage margin by 337 yards.

The storyline on offense was the return of star running back Tavion Thomas, who had been dealing with some off-the-field issues throughout the season. Thomas is back playing inspired football and actually set a career high with 180 yards against the Cardinal.

Quarterback Cam Rising spread the ball around to eight different receivers, headlined by Devaughn Vele, who had a spectacular touchdown catch in the back of the end zone.

Utah made it 5-of-6 against Stanford since joining the Pac-12 and sent plenty of seniors and NFL-bound underclassmen out the right way on senior night. Utah now has the fourth-longest home win streak in America, joining the elite company of Clemson, Alabama and Georgia.

We have reached the Pac-12's unofficial "Semifinal Saturday." The four contenders for the league championship are facing off, with the Los Angeles schools battling in the Rose Bowl, and last year's title pair facing off in Eugene, Oregon.

KSL.com's Josh Furlong put together an incredibly detailed flow chart showing all the title game possibilities; and my understanding is that Utah controls its path to Las Vegas if it wins out.

Oregon will have revenge on their minds after Utah physically dominated them twice last season. This one kicks off in the late window from Autzen Stadium (8:30 p.m. MST, ESPN). The Pac-12 title race is more complex than ever because the league decided to scrap the traditional North and South divisions in favor of a No. 1 vs. No. 2 championship format.

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average 2019-21: Utah 68.9 (7th) | Oregon 62.4 (12th of 66 Power Five)
2021 season: Utah 69.5 (7th) | Oregon 54.4 (28th of 66 Power Five)
2022 season: Utah 73.5 (8th) | Oregon 69.9 (11th of 66 Power Five)

Utah rose four spots in 2022 Game Grader, from No. 12 to No. 8 after its 35-point win over Stanford. It is a crowded upper-tier of the Pac-12 with five teams ranked in the Game Grader Top 20. Utah is currently second among the group, just behind USC (No. 7 nationally) and in front of Oregon (No. 11), UCLA (No. 17), and Washington (No. 19).

Oregon was destroyed by Georgia in the season opener in a 49-3 beatdown, but then rattled off eight-straight victories (scoring 40+ in each game) to climb back into playoff discussions. Their arch-rival Washington dealt them a playoff-eliminating second loss on Saturday.

Oregon with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Oregon offense: 7th of 66 Power Five
Utah defense: 36th of 66 Power Five

One of the biggest surprises of the 2022 season is the breakout of Oregon quarterback Bo Nix. It was shocking enough that Mr. Auburn would leave The Plains, but Nix took it a step further and wedged himself into Heisman talks.

Nix has dazzled, both with his arms and legs. He currently holds a top 5 QB rating, a nation-best completion percentage of 73%, a 24-5 touchdown-to-pick ratio, and has added 512 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground.

Nix was knocked out of the Washington game in the fourth quarter, was reviewed in the injury tent, and returned for Oregon's final drive of the game, but his status for Saturday remains uncertain. The betting markets are certainly watching his injury status, which already shifted the line a full touchdown in Utah's direction.

I still expect to see Nix under center for Oregon.

The Ducks have surged into the top 10 of my opponent-adjusted, per-play percentiles, and have done so with one of the nation's best offensive lines. Mario Cristobal left behind a powerful line, and many of the linemen were cross-trained at multiple positions. They lead the nation in my pass protection sack rate — just two sacks allowed this entire season — and also ranks in the top 10 in my offensive line run push metric.

Utah's front seven has rounded into form over the past month, and defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley earned another nomination for the Broyles Award. The Utes' pass rush crushed Stanford and sacked Tanner McKee seven times, but this will be their biggest test yet.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense: 27th of 66 Power Five
Oregon defense: 57th of 66 Power Five

Thomas' return to form is a game changer for Utah's offense. It appears that he is peaking at the right time and will help Utah stay ahead of the chains. A consistent, reliable run game does so much for Utah's entire offense and opens up play-action balls over the top.

Washington's offense had success throwing all over Oregon's defense on Saturday. They hit every part of the field: vertical passes, outs on the sideline, seam routes, and many short crossers. As an offense, they averaged 9.2 yards per play, which was by far Oregon's worst defensive performance — even worse than the Georgia game.

I expect Cam Rising to have similar success through the air and for this to round into another high-scoring shootout like the Utah-USC game earlier this season. Not to be overshadowed by Nix, Rising is the defending first team All-Pac 12 quarterback and has compiled quite the stat line himself: a 66% completion rate, 13th in QB rating, 19 touchdowns to four picks, and six rushing touchdowns.

Game prediction

Utah blew out Oregon twice in a span of 14 days last season by a combined score of 76-17.

Game Grader has this as a straight "pick-em" after the homefield adjustment for Oregon. With injury concerns around Nix and two offensive linemen, Utah gets the slight edge here. Look for another Pac-12 thriller that sets up Utah with the inside track to defend their league title in Vegas.

No. 10 Utah 38 | No. 12 Oregon 37

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