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PROVO — BYU entered October with a 4-1 record, a Top 20 national ranking, and dreams of a double-digit season. They leave the month with four-straight losses, a collapsing defense, a sub-.500 record, and a bowl now in question.
The first two games were against Power Five opponents ranked in the preseason Associated Press Top 25 poll, but the last two were against non-AQ foes that BYU was projected to beat. Liberty dropped 41 points and had more than 500 yards against the BYU defense, and then East Carolina kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired in last week's 27-24 battle.
There are no moral victories in football, but it is worth noting that the defense made significant strides from the Arkansas and Liberty collapses. They held the Pirates to a touchdown and 50 yards below ECU's season averages.
The assumed victory over Utah Tech next week would give BYU its fifth win, which means the Cougars must beat either Boise State or Stanford to become eligible for a bowl. Pick Six Previews' Game Grader formula currently projects the season finale game against Stanford as a slight BYU lean (BYU -1.5).
Saturday's trip to the blue turf is BYU's toughest remaining test. Boise State is riding a four-game winning streak after a slow start to the season. These teams have played in 10-straight seasons, and Boise State holds the close 6-4 edge in the matchups.
In both 2019 and 2020, BYU defeated a ranked Boise team; but in 2021, the Broncos returned the favor and ended BYU's undefeated start. This is a topic for another article, but strictly football-speaking, I wish Boise State was joining BYU in stepping into the Big 12. Both programs have earned Power Five tickets.
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average 2019-21: BYU 61.0 (16th of 66 Power Five) | Boise State 54.5 (Power Five equivalent: 28th of 66)2021 season: BYU 58.1 (24th) | Boise State 49.1 (Power Five equivalent: 39th of 66)2022 season: BYU 43.8 (47th) | Boise State 55.8 (Power Five equivalent: 30th of 66)
BYU's loss to East Carolina dropped them one spot from No. 46 to No. 47 in 2022 Game Grader. BYU is now down 21 spots since the start of October.
Boise State opened the season 2-2, with 17-point losses to Oregon State and UTEP, and then head coach Andy Avalos fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough. Since then, the Broncos have won four straight, including a win over preseason Mountain West favorite Air Force. Their four-game winning streak has been dominant, with an average margin of victory of 21 points (+250 yardage margin per game).
Boise State with the ball
(Yards per play, national rankings out of 131 FBS teams)
Boise State offense: 5.4 yards/play, 90th in FBSBYU defense: 6.0 yards/play allowed, 104th in FBS
Avalos promoted Dirk Koetter from his analyst role to offensive coordinator, and the results have been instant. In the first four games, Boise State averaged just 4.3 yards per play, which was good for 127th out of the 131 FBS teams. In the last four games, that number has jumped to 6.3 yards per play (30th nationally). The Broncos have scored 35+ points in three of those four wins, and only did so three times in the 18 games pre-Koetter.
Of course, Koetter is more than qualified for the job since he has been the head coach at Boise State, Arizona State, and even in the NFL with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He will have the offense ready to play, and they will test BYU's recovering defense.
BYU has started 23 different defenders — more than an entire two-deep — which is the most variable defensive roster in the nation. The rotations continue well into the game, as they swap out groups of players almost every snap and have even shown the full 11-man hockey style "line change."
The transition to a Kalani Sitaki-run defense could certainly use a bye week to get everything tweaked and refocused, but BYU is not afforded that luxury until after this game. Against East Carolina, they went primarily with a three-man front and three-man rush, meaning they were back to dropping eight in coverage.
That strategy may not be ideal Saturday since Boise State enters the game as one of the most run-heavy teams in America. On the season, they are 59% run play-calling, but under Koetter that has elevated to 66% — the most run-heavy team outside of the Armed Forces schools.
BYU with the ball
(Yards per play, national rankings out of 131 FBS teams)
BYU offense: 6.4 yards/play, 28th in FBSBoise State defense: 4.2 yards/play allowed, 4th in FBS
It will be strength vs. strength when BYU has the ball. Quarterback Jaren Hall bounced back from his career-worst start against Liberty and completed 72% of his passes against East Carolina. Injuries have crushed the running back room, with starter Christopher Brooks doubtful and speedster Jackson McChesney listed as questionable. BYU certainly could have used Brooks in short-yardage situations last week.
Boise State's defense is No. 4 nationally in yards per play allowed and holds a top-10 spot in Pick Six Previews' opponent-adjusted, per-play percentiles. They are especially strong against the pass, with an opponent QB rating ranked sixth in FBS.
Game prediction
This is a tough matchup for BYU in all facets of the game. Their best strength — Hall and the pass game — is neutralized by one of the nation's best pass defenses. Their biggest weakness — defending the run and holding the line of scrimmage — will be tested against a run-heavy play-caller.
We saw Notre Dame and Utah State dominate the time-of-possession in the first half, but BYU's offenses compensated by hitting explosive long-yardage passing plays. Boise State will use the same formula, except their elite pass defense will limit BYU's counter punches.
Boise State 30 | BYU 20
