Pick Six Previews: A statistical breakdown of Utah during its bye week

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah heads into its bye week with a 4-1 record after a 21-7 loss to Oregon State Friday night in Corvallis. As part of my weekly series covering the 2023 Utah season, I'll take the bye week as an opportunity to review how the Utes rank in several of my metrics at Pick Six Previews.

Game Grader

32nd of 69 Power Five teams (compared to 10th in 2022)

Game Grader measures statistical dominance and adjusts for opponent strength. While Utah does have three Power Five wins already, two of them were by single-digits, and they were out-gained in two of them. Friday's decisive 14-point loss (-160 yardage) against Oregon State was the program's lowest individual Game Grade since 2019.

This is the most injured starting lineup in America right now, and that roster attrition has become the central storyline to the 2023 Utah season. As a result, so far, statistically, this is not where I expected Utah to be this year.

Offensive Percentiles

67th of 69 Power Five teams (compared to 28th in 2022)

When the "total offense" stat is presented in yards per game, it doesn't tell the whole story: 500 yards gained against Georgia is much different than 500 yards gained against Vanderbilt. Additionally, 500 yards gained on 80 snaps is less impressive than 500 gained on 50 snaps.

My Offensive Percentiles evaluate on a per-play basis, and also adjust for opponent (defense) strength. Utah checks in among the worst in Power Five, and this is mostly due to injuries at the quarterback position.

In fall camp, Utah lost backup Brandon Rose, and starter Cam Rising is still rehabbing his Rose Bowl injury from January. Utah turned to redshirt freshman Nate Johnson, and the offense has been inefficient, ineffective, and rates as the third-worst in Power Five. Additional injuries to their two best playmakers — All-American candidate Brant Kuithe (tight end) and Ja'Quinden Jackson (running back) — make matters worse.

Defensive Percentiles

11th of 69 Power 5 teams (compared to 34th in 2022)

The defensive version of the above metric shows a significant improvement for Utah year-over-year. Based on the roster composition, this was expected. As one of the best developmental programs in America, Utah tends to operate in cycles, oscillating between younger defenses (raw potential but high variance) and veteran defenses (all-conference candidates and consistent top-10 ranks). 2022 was the former, and I projected 2023 to be the latter.

Ace defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley has done it again. Utah was able to grind out four wins almost solely based on its defense's excellence alone. They swarmed Florida and contained their star running backs, they forced key turnovers in the fourth quarter comeback at Baylor, and they nearly dealt UCLA's Chip Kelly his first shutout of his long career.

Offensive Line Pass Protection

54th of 69 Power 5 teams (compared to 13th in 2022)

After multiple seasons in the top 10 and top 25 of all my offensive line metrics, Utah has slid a bit so far here in 2023. The Utah offensive line is currently allowing a sack on 9% of pass attempts — down significantly from last year's 3% — but it is important to view this stat with context.

The pass protection stat is part offensive line and part quarterback, as they need to make correct reads and distribute the ball timely. As expected, the third- and fourth-string quarterbacks are not processing the coverages as quickly as two-time conference champion Rising, so they share in part of this stat.

Rushing Defense Percentiles, opponent-adjusted, per-play

1st of 69 Power 5 teams (compared to 16th in 2022)

Utah holds the No. 1 spot in my rushing defense metric, which evaluates on a per-carry scope and adjusts for the strength of the opponent's rushing offense. Utah has faced two top-10 rushing offenses (UCLA and Oregon State) and in head coach Kyle Whittingham's words, they "suffocated" them.

• UCLA and Oregon State (non-Utah games): 245 rushing yards per game, 6.8 yards per carry
• UCLA and Oregon State (vs. Utah): 70 rushing yards per game, 2.0 yards per carry

The 175 yards per game and nearly 5 yards per carry under their season averages would be incredible enough at face value, but remember that Utah's defensive front seven has also had an awful run of injuries, too. The defense will only get stronger as they return to full strength in the two-deep.

Opponent QB Rating (Defense)

24th of 133 FBS teams (compared to 29th in 2022)

I prefer this stat when discussing passing defense because it puts the stats into a per-play perspective. Giving up 300 passing yards may sound below-average, but against an Air Raid offense that attempts 60 passes that game, it becomes impressive.

Here in the all-encompassing pass defense measure, Utah is right on par with the 2022 team. Even with the departure of "Mr. Pick Six" Clark Phillips, another All-America candidate has emerged in safety Cole Bishop.

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