Pac-12 bowl projections: Utah, Oregon to the CFP, and sorting through Oregon State's complicated options

The Pac-12 bowl selection process in 2026 treats the former conference as if it never imploded, grouping the 12 legacy schools together just as it did the previous two years. Meanwhile, the new Pac-12 teams have separate postseason arrangements. To simplify the situation, we have split the 18 teams into two groups: Pac-12 legacy bowls and Pac-12 new bowls. Washington State and Oregon State are part of the legacy bowl process with the exception of the Poinsettia Bowl. Bowl projections will be published on the Hotline each Tuesday through the regular season.

So low was the bar for Oregon State this fall that its 3-2 record constitutes an upside surprise of the highest order.

Whether it's the closer-than-expected losses or the resounding wins, the dazzling aerial game or coach JaMarcus Shephard's unstoppable enthusiasm, the Beavers have produced a riveting narrative entering the midway point of the season.

They have also turned trigonometry into basic multiplication.

Oregon State's bowl math is easy enough to compute: If they win three of the seven remaining games, the Beavers will participate in the postseason for the first time since 2023 and the fourth time in the past decade.

But which bowl?

That's where the situation turns complicated because the Beavers, like fellow Pac-12 holdover Washington State, are eligible for two sets of games: The legacy Pac-12 bowls and the new Pac-12 bowls.

And for the College Football Playoff, of course.

That sentence might have read like fantasy in August but is worth brief mention here. If the Beavers somehow run the table, win the Pac-12 and finish 11-2, with competitive losses to Texas Tech and Houston and at least one victory over Boise State, they would receive consideration for the Group of Six berth in the CFP.

That scenario has a non-zero chance of materializing, but not by much.

According to projections on teamrankings.com, the wagering and analytics website, the likelihood of Oregon State winning out is about 2 percent.

But what if the Beavers finish 7-5 or 8-4? Where might they land? More significantly, would they be placed in the pool of legacy Pac-12 games or new Pac-12 games?

The key elements to the process are as follows:

— The legacy Pac-12 teams are eligible for (in order) the Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun, Poinsettia and Independence Bowls.

— The six new Pac-12 teams are eligible for the Poinsettia and Hawaii Bowls, plus a pool of ESPN games.

— Oregon State and Washington State will participate on the legacy Pac-12 side of all games except the Poinsettia pairing, where they are considered new Pac-12 teams.

— The Pac-12 legacy bowls select first, meaning the Beavers likely would land in a legacy game if they are 8-4 or 9-3. If they only win six or seven games, there's a chance they would not be picked for the legacy games and move over to the Poinsettia or Hawaii Bowls.

— Don't forget about the one-win-down rule, which allows any of the legacy bowls to pass one team in favor of another as long as there is no more than a one-game difference in record. The Holiday Bowl, for example, could pass on the Beavers at 8-4 in favor of Washington at 7-5 but not if the Huskies are 6-6.

That policy could work against the Beavers because of their small media market and low national profile.

It could work in favor of the Beavers if bowl executives prioritize ticket sales and Oregon State fans are considered likely to attend the game en masse.

Even if we knew Oregon State's final record, projecting a landing spot would be exceedingly difficult because of the myriad factors involved.

Also, we don't know how many, if any, legacy Pac-12 teams will jump into the CFP, thereby opening spots in the non-playoff games. If Utah and/or Oregon qualify, everyone below them in the pecking order moves up.

However, it's reasonable to assume only a handful of legacy Pac-12 teams will finish with eight or more wins based on current records and upcoming schedules.

If the Beavers are 9-3 or 8-4, they would be well positioned for the Holiday or Sun Bowls.

Why not the Alamo or Las Vegas? Both could be options, but the one-win-down rule might prompt the bowls to select one of the Los Angeles schools.

If the Beavers are 7-5, the Sun or Independence Bowls would come into play.

Only at 6-6 would a berth in Poinsettia, as a new Pac-12 team, become the most realistic option.

In some ways, that might be the most interesting matchup. We would love to see Braden Atkinson and Jesse Legree face Washington or Arizona.

To the bowl projections ...

Pac-12 legacy bowls

College Football Playoff

Team: Utah (Big 12 champion)

Comment: The Utes (4-0) could qualify for the CFP through the at-large pool if they finish with one loss. (It's tough to envision a two-loss Big 12 team getting the requisite respect from the selection committee.) For the moment, we view Utah as the team to beat in the conference, particularly with Texas Tech looking vulnerable on a weekly basis.

College Football Playoff

Team: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)

Comment: The Ducks (3-1) have eight games remaining, one loss in their pocket and a date in Columbus looming. At 10-2, an at-large bid should be forthcoming, although they might not be seeded high enough to host an opening-round game.

Alamo Bowl

Team: UCLA

Comment: There is a good chance the UCLA-USC duel at the end of the season determines bowl destinations for both teams, with the winner receiving the more prestigious assignment. Given the upcoming schedules, the Bruins (4-0) have a better chance to sneak into the CFP, but the best non-playoff bowl is the most likely option at this point.

Las Vegas Bowl

Team: USC

Comment: The schedule includes Wisconsin, Indiana and UCLA on the road and Ohio State at home. Those teams are a combined 17-2. Even if the Trojans (5-1) split that brutal quartet, they would finish with three losses. And the committee has never invited a 9-3 team to the playoff party.

Holiday Bowl

Team: Oregon State

Comment: The Beavers (3-2) would celebrate a bowl bid anywhere. Yuma, Elko, Yakima — sign them up! But San Diego against an ACC opponent? Corvallis would become a ghost town the last week of December.

Sun Bowl

Team: Arizona

Comment: Don't dismiss the Wildcats (4-1) as a title contender in the Big 12 race, particularly after they whacked Cincinnati. But if they don't reach Arlington, options could be limited: The L.A. schools might have priority for the Alamo and Las Vegas Bowls (TV markets), and Arizona was in the Holiday last year.

Poinsettia Bowl

Team: Washington

Comment: A victory over Iowa on Friday night is important but not critical for the bowl math given the spate of winnable games remaining. But the reeling Huskies (3-2) won't be a popular pick on the bowl circuit. Executives always favor teams with energized, not depressed, fans.

Independence Bowl

Team: Arizona State

Comment: The Hotline supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations and spit out a 6-6 record for the Sun Devils 5,001 times. Just kidding. We don't have a supercomputer. But we do have eyes. And from what we saw of Arizona State (2-2) over the weekend, six wins looks right.

Non-qualifier

Team: Cal

Comment: Had you mapped the worst possible scenario for a new coach in Berkeley, it would effectively match Tosh Lupoi's opening month. The Bears (2-3) will be lucky to win five games, much less six or seven.

Non-qualifier

Team: Colorado

Comment: The Buffaloes (2-3) are averaging 10.3 points per game against FBS opponents. Barring a court order that gives Shedeur Sanders additional eligibility, the trajectory won't change enough for CU to win four of the remaining seven.

Non-qualifier

Team: Stanford

Comment: We aren't aware of an NCAA policy banning any team that loses to Wake Forest by 54 points from participating in the postseason. But it would make more sense than most of the organization's rules. In our view , Stanford (2-3) is essentially playing for 2028.

Non-qualifier

Team: Washington State

Comment: First-year coach Kirby Moore is taking over play-calling duties for the struggling Cougars (1-4), which essentially means he picked the wrong offensive coordinator and the wrong quarterback. At least Moore got the defense right with coordinator Trent Bray.

Pac-12 new bowls

College Football Playoff

Team: Boise State

Comment: At this point, the Broncos (4-1) hold the pole position in the race for the Group of Six spot in the playoff, with New Mexico, James Madison and Toledo as the top competition. Yes, North Dakota State is undefeated, but we aren't convinced the Bison warrant that level of respect. Their schedule has been pillowy soft.

Poinsettia Bowl

Team: Fresno State

Comment: A morsel of clarity will come to the Pac-12 race Saturday night when the Bulldogs (4-1) host Boise State in the first of three games matching the presumptive title contenders. And for what it's worth, Fresno State also gets Oregon State at home.

Hawaii Bowl

Team: San Diego State

Comment: The Aztecs (2-3) showed enough grit to beat Texas State, despite a roster torched by injury and illness (i.e., the mumps outbreak), that we have upgraded their forecast. But to make the bowl math work, they might need help from the conference's Flex schedule. Five wins entering the final weekend is a distinct possibility.

Non-qualifier

Team: Colorado State

Comment: If Jim Mora had changed defensive playcallers prior to the UTSA game, the Rams (2-3) might be on the high side of .500 right now and in prime position for a bowl berth. They have more than enough offense to secure six wins.

Non-qualifier

Team: Texas State

Comment: The loss in San Diego, to a depleted opponent, could cost the Bobcats (2-3) a bowl bid. Of course, we could say the same about their come-from-ahead defeat to UTSA, as well.

Non-qualifier

Team: Utah State

Comment: The Hotline saw a comment from Nevada coach Jeff Choate about the Mountain West being superior to the Pac-12. At the top, New Mexico could very well be a match for Boise State. But the middle and bottom tiers of the Pac-12, including Utah State (1-4), are far superior. Just check the scoreboard.

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