Pac-12 football: Assessing the win totals for all 8 teams (Texas State and Boise State are easy calls)

If the oddsmakers are correct, the inaugural season of the new Pac-12 will be light at the top and bottom and wider than the Snake River in the middle.

The preseason win totals published for all eight teams suggest a conference in which the only thing that qualifies as elite is the parity: No team is assigned more than 8.5 or fewer than 4.5 victories, according to data published by VegasInsider.com.

The Hotline doesn't see the race that way. We envision a wider range of outcomes, with a clear distinction between the best and worst of the rebuilt conference.

Then again, win total projections are based partly on schedules, and the Pac-12's flex weekend at the end of the regular season is a complicating factor.

For example, San Diego State is tentatively scheduled to visit Fresno State on the final weekend in a duel of potential title contenders. What if the Aztecs head to Utah State instead?

We know the four home teams for Week 13, but not the road teams. That element of uncertainty was accounted for with our selections below.

Before we take the plunge, please note: Win totals are for the regular season. Conference championships and bowl games don't count.

(Listed alphabetically)

Boise State

VegasInsider total: 8.5

Our pick: Over

Comment: The oddsmakers are essentially daring the public to pick the Over. (Do they know something we don't? Perhaps.) The opener at Oregon is daunting and counted as a loss for the purposes of this exercise. But the Broncos should be favored in at least 10 of the remaining 11 games, with the trip to Fresno State as the only possible underdog instance. We view Boise State, with a veteran quarterback (Maddux Madsen) and stout lines of scrimmage, as the top team in the Group of Six and a lock for nine wins, if not 10 or 11.

Colorado State

VegasInsider total: 4.5

Our pick: Under

Comment: First-year coach Jim Mora is facing a major rebuild with the Rams, and the challenging non-conference schedule makes his task even trickier. BYU is an obvious hurdle, but so, too, is the Week 4 trip to UTSA. And if the Rams enter conference play with just two wins, the climb to five will be arduous given the trips to Texas State, Washington State and Fresno State.

Fresno State

VegasInsider total: 7.5

Our pick: Over

Comment: Although the Hotline views Boise State as the frontrunner, there's a case to make for Fresno State as something that approaches co-favorite. Second-year coach Matt Entz has a veteran offensive line and perhaps the best tailback in the conference in Rayshon Luke. The quarterback situation is muddled, particularly if Maryland transfer Khristian Martin struggles with the transition. But the Bulldogs should start Pac-12 play with three wins in the bank, which makes the road to eight more than manageable.

Oregon State

VegasInsider total: 4.5

Our pick: Under

Comment: The oddsmakers' skeptical view of coach JaMarcus Shephard's rookie season is fully warranted, in our view. Even if senior quarterback Maalik Murphy improves his efficiency, there are legitimate questions about the protection, the running game and every level of the defense. But OSU's greatest challenge is a schedule that opens with two Big 12 title contenders, Houston and Texas Tech, and includes trips to Boise State and Fresno State. We simply cannot make the math work for five wins.

San Diego State

VegasInsider total: 7.5

Our pick: Under

Comment: If it's possible to be optimistic about SDSU's season and pessimistic about the Aztecs winning eight games (or more), the Hotline is threading that needle. Here's why: We think they will be one of the best teams in the Pac-12 without the record to show for it because of the totality of the schedule, which is just this side of brutal. The Aztecs play UCLA in Week 2, then face James Madison and Toledo back-to-back -- and both are high-end Group of Six teams. In other words: The Aztecs have three losable games before conference play begins. And their finish is dastardly with Boise State and Fresno State in succession ... on the road.

Texas State

VegasInsider total: 6.5

Our pick: Over

Comment: The Bobcats are something of an unknown commodity to fans of the Pac-12's western wing. Where's San Marcos? How did they fare in the Sun Belt? Who's the quarterback? We'll answer the last question right here: Brad Jackson will start for the Bobcats and should be one of the best players in the conference. (He accounted for 38 touchdowns last year as a freshman.) The Over with Texas State is one of the easiest picks on the board.

Utah State

VegasInsider total: 5.5

Our pick: Under

Comment: No team in the conference faces a tougher four-game stretch than the Aggies, who visit Washington and Utah in back-to-back weeks in September, then host Troy, which could win the Sun Belt, followed by a trip to Boise State. At that point, Bronco Mendenhall and Co. could very well be 1-4 with a slew of tough games remaining. All this comes with a new quarterback and retooled offensive line. Good luck with all that.

Washington State

VegasInsider total: 5.5

Our pick: Over

Comment: Admittedly, the Hotline went back and forth on this selection. We like everything Kirby Moore has done with the roster and his coaching staff since taking charge last winter. But are there six wins on the schedule? We foresee three defeats before conference play begins (Washington, Kansas State and Arizona), and then a narrow path to the Over. In fact, it could come down to the result of the flex weekend. The Cougars are currently scheduled to host Oregon State, but that could change.

Related topics