Big 12 smacked by non-conference cancellations, creating challenge with CFP uncertainty

With kickoffs across the Big 12 fast approaching, the conference absorbed yet another wallop — on the calendar, not the field.

In recent months, Arizona State, Oklahoma State and West Virginia have had marquee non-conference series canceled by high-profile opponents from the SEC.

This week, Texas Tech joined the Big 12 victim list when USC reportedly opted against finalizing a series with the Red Raiders.

The SEC cancellations were rooted in its shift to a nine-game conference schedule, which reduces the number of non-conference windows for each team from four to three.

Instead of eliminating a cupcake foe from the schedule, or a fellow blue blood, SEC teams have chosen to axe Big 12 opponents. Alabama, for example, canceled a series with Oklahoma State in 2028-29 — technically, the schools "mutually agreed" on the move — but kept its dates with Ohio State and Notre Dame.

(The Crimson Tide did the same with West Virginia.)

Meanwhile, LSU, Florida and Texas have all backed out of deals with Arizona State, which arguably has been hit harder by SEC cancellations than any school in the country.

And on Tuesday, the website On3 revealed that USC is no longer planning a two-game, neutral-site series with Texas Tech in 2027-28. (Trojans coach Lincoln Riley played for the Red Raiders.)

What's a shunned conference to do?

Not panic, that's what.

"Changes in the SEC and ACC the last two years have caused some disruption in our ability to maintain previously scheduled games, and that has created some movement," Scott Draper, the Big 12's chief football and competition officer, told the Hotline last week.

One move distinct from SEC decisions has proved beneficial for the Big 12: When Notre Dame and USC put their rivalry on pause until the 2030s, the Irish turned to BYU for help and will face the Cougars in a home-and-home series in 2026-27.

"There are some challenges, certainly," Draper said. "But it doesn't mean we're concerned. We just have to work with our schools to monitor it and give them every opportunity to build the schedules that work best for them and the league."

The Big 12's scheduling policy requires each team to play 10 games against power conference opponents: nine intra-league games and at least one non-conference date with the ACC, Big Ten or SEC.

When cancellations occur, Draper added, "we do our very best to work with our schools to see that everyone gets what they need."

For a variety of reasons, including the SEC's intra-conference change and realignment-related issues across the Football Bowl Subdivision, the Big 12 has a dwindling number of high-profile dates against Power Four opponents, per data from FBschedules.com (SEC and Big Ten foes in parentheses):

• 2024: 17/8
• 2025: 15/6
• 2026: 12/7
• 2027: 11/6

The practical impact is significant. Canceled series affect ticket sales and gate revenue, TV exposure and postseason access. When assessing at-large candidates, the College Football Playoff selection committee considers metrics such as schedule strength and quality wins.

Notably, the Big 12 is the only power conference that has not received an at-large bid during the two seasons of the 12-team CFP.

For that reason, commissioner Brett Yormark favors doubling the size of the field to 24 teams, a controversial move proposed by the Big Ten but opposed (for now) by the SEC.

"If it stays at 12," Draper said, "it's more top-of-mind when building the (non-conference) schedules. It's a stronger consideration because access is limited.

"Larger access allows you to expand your viewfinder."

For the Big 12, that viewfinder could include playing 10 conference games as a means of increasing schedule strength within a landscape of shrinking opportunities to face SEC and Big Ten opponents.

"(Yormark) introduced that to the coaches and athletic directors in May ... in context around an expanded playoff," Draper said. "Once that discussion concludes, we'll bring the (10-game conference schedule) concept back to our membership."

For now, the Big 12 exists in wait-and-brace mode: Wait for a decision on CFP expansion — the commissioners have a Dec. 1 deadline to approve changes for the 2027 season — and brace for additional cancellations by scheduled opponents in the SEC, ACC and Big Ten.

In upcoming seasons, Big 12 teams are under contract to face Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, LSU, Miami, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, UCLA, Wisconsin and others in the Power Four.

Spread across 16 teams and six or eight years, that lineup isn't quite as stout as it appears.

And it's not nearly as enticing as it was before this recent barrage of cancellations.

"With coaching changes around the country and new philosophies at particular schools, and with schedules made so far in the future, it will always be a challenge," Draper said.

"Our goal is simply to give schools the best possible runway to be successful."

The likelihood of the Big 12 shifting to a 10-game conference schedule — a concept that's both radical and entirely practical — seems to increase by the month.

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