Pac-12 bowl projections: Utah is playoff-bound, Arizona to Las Vegas, Oregon tumbles

The Pac-12 bowl selection process in 2026 treats the former conference as if it never imploded, grouping the 12 legacy schools together just as it did the previous two years. Meanwhile, the new Pac-12 teams have separate postseason arrangements. To simplify the situation, we have split them into two groups: Pac-12 legacy bowls and Pac-12 new bowls. Washington State and Oregon State are part of the legacy bowl process with the exception of the Poinsettia Bowl. Bowl projections will be published on the Hotline each Tuesday through the regular season.

We are three weeks from the first reveal of the College Football Playoff rankings, the made-for-ESPN, rage-generating weekly exercise that undermines the credibility of the selection committee, complicates the process and makes everyone and everything it touches worse for the experience.

That's enough ranting, for now. There's bound to be more once the rankings shows commence Nov. 3.

The Hotline has no interest in attempting to predict where teams will be slotted on the first Tuesday in November, not with three weeks of results to play out before the committee's initial reveal.

But several rankings-related issues are worth tracking across the second half of October:

— The Big 12 cluster. How high will the committee rank the top teams? Last year, undefeated BYU was No. 7 in the first rankings, one spot ahead of one-loss Texas Tech. The positioning will reflect both team resumes and conference respect. The latter was in somewhat short supply in 2024-25. Alone among the Power Four leagues, the Big 12 has failed to send an at-large team to the CFP. To end that shutout, two teams must be ranked in the top 12 when the final rankings are disclosed Dec. 6.

— The Notre Dame factor. The sport continues to create different rules for the Irish, the latest example being a special carve-out in the CFP process: If the Irish finish in the top 12, they are guaranteed a bid. If an automatic qualifier is ranked below Notre Dame — the top Group of Six team, for instance — then No. 11 would get bumped instead of the Irish. Put another way: Everyone in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC should be rooting against Notre Dame.

— The SEC cannibalism. For the first time, the deepest conference in the country is playing a nine-game league schedule. How many zero- and one-loss teams will remain when the committee debates the initial rankings? Remember, Alabama (2025) is the only three-loss team to receive an at-large berth in CFP history, and the Crimson Tide's third defeat was in the SEC title game, not the regular season. Every team with two losses in early November will face a must-win stretch run.

— The AP poll impact. The committee is supposed to rank teams based on performance and results, with zero preseason or brand bias — and independent of other computer or human rankings. And yet ... the initial rankings last year were notably similar to the order of teams in the AP poll that had been released two days earlier. Don't be surprised if history repeats.

To the Pac-12 bowl projections ...

(Dates for the CFP rankings shows are listed below.)

Pac-12 legacy bowls

College Football Playoff

Team: Utah

Comment: The Scalley Express should be undefeated when November arrives and brings the toughest stretch of the season: BYU at home and Arizona on the road in consecutive weeks. The Utes (5-0) will need a split, at minimum, to keep pace for the CFP as both an automatic and at-large qualifier.

Alamo Bowl

Team: UCLA

Comment: The victory in Eugene created both a wider path into the CFP for the Bruins (5-0) and a more challenging journey with the injury to quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who is reportedly out for the season with a torn ACL. But the schedule is soft enough to support nine wins, and perhaps 10.

Las Vegas Bowl

Team: Arizona

Comment: With a victory this week over Iowa State, the Wildcats (5-1) would clinch back-to-back bowl bids for the first time since 2014-15. Establishing that consistency was, in our view, the priority for coach Brent Brennan and Co. The roller coaster, with a breakthrough season followed by an abject failure, had to end.

Holiday Bowl

Team: Oregon

Comment: It has been years since the Hotline projected the Ducks (3-2) so low in the Pac-12 bowl pecking order. But with a trip to Ohio State looming, we see nine wins as their ceiling, eight as reasonable and seven as a distinct possibility. Dan Lanning whiffed badly with his coordinator hires.

Sun Bowl

Team: Oregon State

Comment: The Beavers (4-2) are not only winning, they are winning with flair and possess an emerging star in freshman receiver Jesse Legree. Bowl executives will take that into account if left with the choice of OSU or a team with a bigger brand. Don't be surprised if the Beavers end up in the Holiday. Or better.

Poinsettia Bowl

Team: USC

Comment: The Hotline was thoroughly unimpressed with USC's victory at Penn State, which lost previously to Wisconsin and Northwestern. Our projections show two or three more defeats coming for the Trojans (6-1) given a schedule that includes Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA. Potentially relevant: Bowls are leery of teams that have interim head coaches.

Independence Bowl

Team: Arizona State

Comment: There is a good chance a handful of 7-5 or 6-6 teams will be available for the Independence, which hasn't featured a Pac-12 legacy school in three years. At this point, we view the Sun Devils (3-2) as the most likely pick. But Cal and Washington could emerge as options, as well.

At-large/ESPN bowl pool

Team: Cal

Comment: It was rarely pretty and frequently ugly, but the victory over Virginia Tech did wonders for the bowl math in Berkeley. At this point, the Bears (3-3) must split their final six games. They play Wake Forest, Stanford and Pittsburgh at home and SMU, NC State and Virginia on the road. It will be close.

At-large/ESPN bowl pool

Team: Washington

Comment: If Iowa was the defining game of the season for the Huskies (3-3), the trip to Purdue this week is make-or-break for bowl eligibility. With a loss, plus remaining dates with Nebraska (road), Indiana (home) and Oregon (road), the math starts to resemble advanced calculus.

Non-qualifier

Team: Colorado

Comment: The come-from-behind win at Georgia Tech to open the season feels like five months ago. The Buffaloes (2-3) have a three-game losing streak that will soon become five with Utah and Oklahoma State as their next two opponents.

Non-qualifier

Team: Stanford

Comment: The Cardinal (2-4) has played three road games thus far with the following combined score: Duke, Wake Forest and Notre Dame 150, Stanford 17. That is not a misprint. It is, however, unimaginable and inexcusable, no matter how low the payroll might be.

Non-qualifier

Team: Washington State

Comment: The Cougars (1-5) better hope blowing a 13-point lead at Utah State constitutes rock bottom. We suspect the thud is coming Saturday afternoon in Corvallis.

Pac-12 new bowls

College Football Playoff

Team: Boise State

Comment: We foresee a two-game season for the Broncos (5-1): Their November home date with Oregon State and the (presumptive) rematch with the Beavers in the Pac-12 championship game. They don't have to win both to reach the CFP, but it would help. Also, the Broncos need Oregon to finish in the Top 25 to bolster their resume.

Poinsettia Bowl

Team: Fresno State

Comment: The Bulldogs (4-2) seemingly are the No. 3 team in the Pac-12 but would fill the second spot in the bowl lineup if Oregon State is selected by one of the legacy games, which seems increasingly likely.

Hawaii Bowl

Team: Texas State

Comment: The Bobcats (2-3) cannot miss the opportunity to secure two victories with Colorado State and Utah State coming to town, because what follows is the worst back-to-back in the Pac-12: consecutive trips to Boise State and Oregon State.

Non-qualifier

Team: Colorado State

Comment: The bowl math is difficult but not ridiculous for the Rams (2-3), and it might hinge on their opponent for the Flex Saturday schedule (Nov. 28). If they are one victory away, the conference might manipulate the matchups to give them the best chance for postseason eligibility.

Non-qualifier

Team: San Diego State

Comment: A season in which everything has gone wrong for the Aztecs (2-4) includes a relatively soft back half of the schedule. So their bowl prospects should be considered comatose, not legally dead.

Non-qualifier

Team: Utah State

Comment: If Bronco Mendenhall somehow leads the Aggies (2-4) into the postseason, he should finish second in the Pac-12 Coach of the Year voting to Oregon State's JaMarcus Shephard.

College Football Playoff rankings schedule

(All shows on ESPN. All times Pacific)

• Tuesday, Nov. 3: 4 p.m.
• Tuesday, Nov. 10: 6 p.m.
• Tuesday, Nov. 17: 6 p.m.
• Tuesday, Nov. 24: 4:30 p.m.
• Tuesday, Dec. 1: 4 p.m.
• Sunday, Dec. 6: 9 a.m.

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