Hotline Week 7 picks: BYU covers, UCLA struggles, Washington wins and Oregon State rolls (again)

Welcome the Hotline's weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the most intriguing matchups across the West and the top games nationally. Betting lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com unless noted otherwise. (Games involving FCS teams not included.) I went 8-7 last week and am 40-35-2 for the season (53.3%). Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren't.

At the midseason turn, clarity has come to college football. We know which teams are exceeding expectations, which are underachieving and which teams are worth your money.

Oddly enough, the best bets are clustered west of the Rockies.

Six teams are undefeated against the point spread this season. Five are located in the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones.

Oregon State, one of the best stories in the sport, is the only team with a 6-0 record, according to TeamRankings.com, the gambling and analytics website.

BYU, Utah, UCLA and New Mexico are 5-0, as is Georgia State, the only team with a perfect record in the eastern half of the Football Bowl Subdivision.

What do all six have in common? They have exceeded the public's expectations to varying degrees.

At the other end of the point-spread spectrum are the disappointments.

Hello, Washington.

And USC.

The Trojans are 2-5 against the spread -- that's no surprise; they are forever overvalued by the betting public -- while the Huskies are 1-5. The only time UW covered the spread this season? Against USC, naturally.

Another straggler: Colorado, which is quickly becoming irrelevant under Deion Sanders. The Buffaloes are 1-4 against the spread.

Not everything aligns. Some teams have been deeply disappointing with their on-field performances but stout against the spread. Washington State, for example, has one victory (over Duquesne) but is 4-2 against the spread.

Arizona is 5-1 on the field but 2-4 in the sportsbooks.

How about Oregon? Nobody expected the Ducks to have two losses in five games, but they aren't awful (2-3) against the spread.

We'll circle back on this topic in early November, at the start of the stretch run.

To the picks ...

(All times Pacific)

Washington (+3.5) at Purdue

Kickoff: Friday at 5 p.m. on Fox

Comment: The Huskies are underdogs against a team that was winless in conference play in 2024 and 2025 but now is looking down on them in the standings. It might seem counterintuitive, but we view this as a get-right game for UW while Purdue has difficulty handling its newfound success. Pick: Washington

Ohio State (-3.5) at Indiana

Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox

Comment: Feels like the oddsmakers are daring the betting public to take the Hoosiers, who haven't lost since 2024. (Curt Cignetti as a home underdog? Can't pass that up!) The Hotline won't fall for it. Josh Hoover isn't Fernando Mendoza. Pick: Ohio State

Arizona State (+14.5) at Texas Tech

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Fox

Comment: This is the week the Sun Devils show themselves as a contender or pretender in the Big 12, and it all depends on quarterback Cutter Boley. Pick: Arizona State

Alabama (-8.5) at Tennessee

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ABC

Comment: An absolutely brutal back-to-back for the Crimson Tide following their ultra-physical collision with Georgia. Quarterback Keelon Russell will find a path to victory, but it won't be easy — and could take more than 60 minutes. Pick: Tennessee

Washington State (+18) at Oregon State

Kickoff: 3 p.m. on USA Network

Comment: That can't be correct: 18 points? Must be the first-half spread. Pick: Oregon State

Notre Dame (-10.5) at BYU

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC

Comment: It's a ton of points to give the Cougars at home until you consider quarterback Bear Bachmeier will have to carry a massive load against a stellar defense. (BYU's star tailback, LJ Martin, is injured.) Our view: Bachmeier plus a little Provo magic should keep it competitive deep into the fourth quarter, which is the minimum the Cougars — and the Big 12 — require. Pick: BYU

Wisconsin (+2.5) at UCLA

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC

Comment: The Bruins are in a vulnerable spot coming off the taxing victory at Oregon and with accolades coming at them from every direction. Meanwhile, the Badgers had two weeks to prepare. Pick: Wisconsin

Utah (-15.5) at Colorado

Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN

Comment: The most interesting facet of this matchup is CU quarterback Isaac Wilson facing his former team. Advantage: former team. Close early, not close late. Pick: Utah

Wake Forest (-9) at Cal

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN2

Comment: We took the Bears and the points at home last week against an East Coast team (Virginia Tech) making the long trip, and we're taking the Bears and the points at home this week against an East Coast team making the long trip. The only difference: Cal won't win this game outright. The Demon Deacons are good. Very good. Pick: Cal

Fresno State (-7.5) at San Diego State

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network

Comment: Two suboptimal choices: The Aztecs are coming off a beatdown at Oregon State; the Bulldogs are recovering from the exhausting (emotionally and physically) duel with Boise State. We'll take the home underdog. Pick: San Diego State

Nebraska (+7.5) at Oregon

Kickoff: 8 p.m. on Fox

Comment: This is the best Nebraska team of the Matt Rhule era and the most flawed Oregon team of Dan Lanning's tenure. We like the Ducks, assuming they don't commit seven turnovers. Pick: Oregon

Straight-up winners: Washington, Ohio State, Arizona State, Alabama, Oregon State, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Utah, Wake Forest, Fresno State and Oregon

Five-star special: Oregon State. Despite all their blowout wins, the betting public continues to undervalue the Beavers. They could pummel Washington State.