Holy Score: Bear Bachmeier, BYU's winning ways and the ingredients needed for a Heisman Trophy campaign

Technically, Bear Bachmeier's position in the Heisman Trophy race is little changed since August. He was 66-to-1 to win the award before the season, and is currently 55-to-1, according to FanDuel odds.

In reality, BYU's quarterback has made meaningful progress that isn't yet reflected in the betting lines.

Where's the evidence?

How do we define meaningful progress?

Is there any reason to believe the sophomore could win the most prestigious award in college sports?

Let's pause to establish the framework for this exercise.

The Hotline does not believe Bachmeier has a reasonable chance to win the Heisman Trophy. Not with big brands like Texas, Notre Dame, Miami and Ohio State possessing both star players and championship-caliber teams.

However, we view a strong campaign, with Bachmeier as a finalist invited to New York City for the Heisman ceremony, as entirely reasonable.

After all, the 2025 winner, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, was 55-to-1 to win the Heisman early last season — the same odds Bachmeier has now.

What's more, Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, who finished fifth in the voting, was not even listed as a candidate last September.

But for Bachmeier to reach New York City, everything must break just right.

That process began last weekend, when he threw three touchdown passes and ran for another in BYU's 28-17 victory over Arizona, which aired on Fox and generated 3 million viewers. (We'll offer context on the audience figures momentarily.)

Those are the critical elements in the Heisman race, the hydrogen and oxygen molecules necessary for any campaign to have life:

— Team success: BYU must win the Big 12.

— Individual excellence: Bachmeier must perform at an elite level.

— Media exposure: Bachmeier must be seen by voters across the country.

We cannot overstate the importance of visibility in the Heisman race, and it's vastly more difficult for players in the Western third of the country.

In the past half century, 10 players from the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones have won the Heisman.

Six are from USC, the region's one true blue blood: Charles White, Marcus Allen, Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush and Caleb Williams.

The others: BYU quarterback Ty Detmer in 1990, Colorado running back Rashaan Salaam in 1994, Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota in 2014 and Colorado cornerback/receiver Travis Hunter in 2024.

Unlike members of that foursome during their winning campaigns, Bachmeier is starting his candidacy deep in the shadows in the same fashion as, for example, Stanford's Christian McCaffrey in 2015.

McCaffrey would break one of the most hallowed records in the sport: Barry Sanders' mark for all-purpose yards. But he finished second to Alabama's Derrick Henry in large part because of exposure, or lack thereof: 55% of McCaffrey's record-breaking yardage total came in games that started at 10 p.m. or later on the East Coast.

And that, folks, is why BYU's victory over Arizona was so important to Bachmeier. He played exceptionally well, the game was well-viewed on Fox, and the result will ensure the 11th-ranked Cougars remain relevant — in the Big 12 and nationally — through September.

They should handle Colorado State this weekend and take an undefeated record into October, when conference play begins and Bachmeier has a series of high-profile games to display his skills.

The most important, of course, is the Notre Dame duel on Oct. 17 in Provo.

The matchup materialized after the Irish and USC placed their historic series on hold for several years. Notre Dame needed a replacement, preferably a quality opponent to boost its schedule strength. BYU had an opening and was happy to oblige.

It could be one of the most-watched games of the season — a chance for Bachmeier to introduce himself to the mass of curious Heisman voters at the halfway mark of the season, before opinions on various candidates have solidified.

How many? We can tell you exactly. There are 930 Heisman voters, although a handful don't submit ballots each year.

The state of Utah falls into the Far West voting bloc, which spans the Dakotas to California.

Yep, that massive terrain is home to just 16.7 percent of the Heisman electorate. The remaining 83.3 percent — or roughly 775 voters — is jammed into states east of, or touching, the Mississippi River, plus Colorado and New Mexico.

Given the population, the Heisman's voting blocs aren't unreasonable. But the breakdown makes life challenging for candidates from the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones, especially those who do not have USC's brand power behind them.

But there, too, is a slight advantage for Bachmeier: BYU is a known commodity from coast-to-coast and has produced a Heisman winner, Detmer, and several finalists, including Steve Young and Jim McMahon.

Certainly, the Cougars possess more tradition and a stronger national brand than Texas Tech did at this time last year, when Rodriguez's candidacy was in its infancy.

What happened next? Rodriguez performed at a high level, the Red Raiders' defense became a dominant force that generated national attention and they steamed into the College Football Playoff.

It's worth noting that Texas Tech's nine conference games last season drew an average of 2.1 million viewers, according to figures published by SportsMediaWatch.

BYU's opener against Arizona beat that by 50%.

The largest audience to watch the Red Raiders during the regular season was 4.04 million, for the Fox Big Noon broadcast of the Utah game in September.

The Cougars should easily surpass that figure against Notre Dame.

Bachmeier will have the exposure necessary, if the Cougars keep winning. (Unranked teams don't get premium broadcast spots on Fox and ESPN.)

Another development working in his favor: The preseason frontrunner from the Far West, Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, played poorly in the stunning loss at Oklahoma State.

That needs to continue. If Bachmeier isn't the region's top player, he stands little chance of becoming a finalist. (In that regard, he needs USC quarterback Jayden Maiava to struggle.)

Because ballots are due the afternoon of Dec. 7 — the day after the College Football Playoff matchups and bowl pairings are announced — the electorate will know before voting whether Bachmeier has led the Cougars to the conference title, just as Rodriguez did a year ago.

Hours later, the Heisman will reveal the four finalists headed to New York City.

If the Cougars keep winning, the needed exposure will come and Bachmeier just might receive enough votes to warrant an invitation.

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