Big 12 QB rankings: Fifita, Bachmeier, Weigman and Dampier lead the way as half the teams turn to transfers

Only five teams in the Big 12 return their starting quarterbacks. Three more are relying on former backups to make the transition to full-time starters. The other eight teams have turned to the transfer portal for help.

How to make sense of it all? With terminology borrowed from the NFL.

For our Big 12 quarterback rankings, the Hotline has separated quarterbacks into three categories using terms deployed by scouts and personnel executives at the professional level.

They are as follows:

Trucks: QBs who are capable of carrying their team to the conference title.

Trailers: QBs who need help from surrounding talent in order to win the conference title.

Under assembly: QBs who lack either the talent or experience needed to even contend for the conference title. (This term is ours, by the way.)

Here we go.

(Players listed alphabetically by school within each category.)

Trucks

Arizona

Projected starter: Noah Fifita

Comment: The 2025 first-team all-Big 12 quarterback (and Arizona's career touchdown leader) has returned for his final season with one goal in mind: the conference championship. He's good enough to accomplish the task if the defense stands firm, and will have a talented collection of receivers available. Fifita doesn't have the highest ceiling among the Big 12 quarterbacks, but he has the highest floor.

BYU

Projected starter: Bear Bachmeier

Comment: At 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds, Bachmeier resembles a truck when charging through a gap at the line of scrimmage. Yes, his pocket efficiency could use refinement (last year: 15 touchdowns, seven interceptions), but given normal Year 2 development, Bachmeier should have no trouble carrying the Cougars when needed. His fit within coach Kalani Sitake's scheme is superb.

Houston

Projected starter: Conner Weigman

Comment: Were these rankings based on each team's total talent at the position and not merely the starters, Houston might be in a class of its own: Weigman's backup is Keisean Henderson, the top-ranked passer in the 2026 recruiting class. We envision a stellar second year in coach Willie Fritz's system for Weigman, a former blue-chip prospect whose career stalled at Texas A&M but received a second chance with the Cougars.

Oklahoma State

Projected starter: Drew Mestemaker

Comment: Admittedly, Mestemaker could prove to be a trailer. He has just one season of starting experience, and it came last fall at North Texas. More likely, his familiarity with coach Eric Morris' offense (from their year together with the Mean Green) will create a smooth transition to the Big 12. If Fifita has the highest floor of the 16 projected starters, Mestemaker seemingly has the highest ceiling.

Utah

Projected starter: Devon Dampier

Comment: Our sunny forecast for the Utes can be traced partly to Dampier's dynamic skill set and efficiency — his touchdown-to-interception ratio last year was 5-to-1 — but mostly to the combination of Dampier and backup Byrd Ficklin, who rushed for 541 yards in 2025 despite limited playing time. If used properly by first-year playcaller Kevin McGiven, they should form a dastardly combination.

Trailers

Baylor

Projected starter: DJ Lagway

Comment: Lagway looks and moves like a truck but passed like a trailer with 23 interceptions and 62% completions in his two seasons at Florida. If veteran offensive coordinator Jake Spavital conjures the best from his latest pupil and limits the worst, Lagway could emerge as an all-conference player. But we need to see it consistently before believing it.

Kansas State

Projected starter: Avery Johnson

Comment: Johnson probably warrants his own category, such is the extent of the tease he has offered Kansas State fans for three seasons. His mobility is off the charts, and his arm is plenty strong. But the accuracy and decision-making are not where they need to be. At least that has been the case. Will new coach Collin Klein, a former KSU quarterback, unlock the full scope of Johnson's talent? Don't bet on it.

TCU

Projected starter: Jaden Craig

Comment: This categorization presumes Craig's transition from Harvard will not be seamless. If what he achieved in the Ivy League is replicated this fall against one of the toughest schedules in the Big 12, then TCU would have an indisputable truck at the most important position ... and frankly, we would be left wondering about the quality of Big 12 defenses.

Texas Tech

Projected starter: Will Hammond

Comment: The trailer in Lubbock has a flat tire: Hammond is coming off a season-ending knee injury and likely won't be 100% in the opening weeks. No matter. The Red Raiders have the most talented surrounding cast in the conference. As long as Hammond keeps mistakes to a minimum, Texas Tech should have no trouble scoring enough touchdowns to contend for the title.

UCF

Projected starter: Alonza Barnett

Comment: Barnett's credentials are solid: He was the Sun Belt Player of the Year in 2026 at James Madison, accounting for 38 touchdowns (passing and running). His accuracy must improve, but the mobility and moxie will serve him well. Put another way: We have more confidence in Barnett's ability to manage the transition to the power conference level than the slew of other transfer quarterbacks moving from lower levels.

Under assembly

Arizona State

Projected starter: Cutter Boley

Comment: At the point this column was published, coach Kenny Dillingham had not resolved the competition between Boley, the transfer from Kentucky, and Mikey Keene, who arrived from Michigan. It's possible Dillingham knows who will take the first snap against Morgan State (our guess: Boley), and the Sun Devils will instantly reap the benefits of his quarterback expertise. In other words, the situation in Tempe could quickly elevate to the trailer category.

Cincinnati

Projected starter: JC French

Comment: Cincinnati's replacement for Brendan Sorsby was a two-year starter at Georgia Southern. So why the placement on the third tier of our QB rankings? Exactly for that reason: French was a two-year starter at Georgia Southern, and we are fairly skeptical about his effectiveness in the Big 12, especially with so many new surrounding pieces.

Colorado

Projected starter: Julian Lewis

Comment: On the surface, the Buffaloes have an impressive QB room. Lewis is a former four-star prospect who played in four games last season, while backup Isaac Wilson is the well-traveled ex-blue chipper who began his career at Utah. (They are learning the Go-Go offense under CU's new playcaller, Brennan Marion.) In the same fashion as his predecessors, Lewis will stand behind a deeply flawed offensive line.

Iowa State

Projected starter: Jaylen Raynor

Comment: As with so many other positions in the wake of coach Matt Campbell's departure, the Cyclones' quarterback situation appears highly problematic. Raynor has been charged with replacing the always-steady Rocco Becht but had an erratic season at Arkansas State in 2025 and will not have high-level complementary pieces in Ames. Plan B is Zanes Flores, formerly of Oklahoma State.

Kansas

Projected starter: Cole Ballard

Comment: Jalon Daniels has moved on following his 17-year career in Lawrence, leaving behind significant uncertainty. Ominously, the month-long competition between Ballard and Isaiah Marshall has not been resolved, and we would not be surprised if both quarterbacks play regularly during the season whether it's by design or default. It's possible that Under Assembly is an overly optimistic categorization.

West Virginia

Projected starter: Michael Hawkins

Comment: Let's begin with the premise that coach Rich Rodriguez has worked wonders with quarterbacks in the past and could, in theory, turn Hawkins into a top-tier playmaker by the end of the season. Hawkins gained significant experience at Oklahoma in 2024 (120 passing attempts) but wasn't effective enough in the role for us to assume a transformation is forthcoming.

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