BYU has little room for error with College Football Playoff aspirations still in reach

PROVO — Getting a second loss of the season on the first weekend of November used to feel like a death knell for College Football Playoff aspirations.

But in today's college football, two losses are a normal occurrence.

Following a 28-20 road loss to rival Utah, BYU is now 7-2 on the season, but the team still holds a playoff spot after coming in at No. 10 in the latest CFP rankings Tuesday night.

The Cougars' loss to UCF was not good by any means, but their win over Notre Dame, the No. 5 team, has given them one of the premier wins of the college football season, especially after the Fighting Irish knocked off unbeaten Miami on Saturday.

The loss to the now-ranked No. 2 Utes and another top-25 win over Arizona give BYU a good resume for the committee to evaluate when deciding on their rankings.

The choice to rank the Cougars at 10 despite two losses shows that the selection committee values the Notre Dame win a lot while also not knocking BYU for losing a one-score game at Utah. The Cougars just fell one spot in the rankings after the loss last week.

With other teams in the running for the playoffs losing this past weekend, and three more weeks left in the regular season, anything is possible. Where BYU sits currently, the path to the playoffs is clear: win out.

It is not looking like the Cougars will need a Big 12 Championship win or even appearance for that matter, to make the 12-team field. In fact, a potential third loss in the Big 12 Championship might hurt BYU the same way it did a year ago. Obviously, a win would guarantee them a spot, but they would need some help getting to Arlington in December.

With multiple teams around the country sitting with one or two losses and three weeks left, schools in the playoff bubble could fall out with losses. The SEC will likely figure itself out with its future matchups and eliminate teams that could pose a threat to the Cougars.

"The season comes down to which team is going to be in the championship game," Kalani Sitake said. "Week to week, you're going to be eliminating people, and the picture will get clearer and clearer as we go throughout it, but this week is all that matters right now, and that's what we're going to be focused on."

At the end of the day, BYU needs to take care of its business and beat Baylor, Kansas, and Cincinnati. Their first test will come at home against the Bears, a team that has won its last two games after firing head coach Dave Aranda and giving the reins to Joe Klanderman.

"It doesn't surprise me that they're winning the last couple of weeks and that they're doing it at a high level," Sitake said. "What's surprising is that I think there's a lot of teams that can easily tank it, and so that speaks to the leadership of Klanderman and what he's been able to do with that group, that they find ways to be motivated and to keep playing, and now they found themselves in a really good spot."

After winning their previous two games, Baylor is 6-3 and firmly in the Big 12 race after improving their conference record to 4-2. It's a must-win game for both team's postseason hopes and the Cougars' player leadership group knows what's at stake.

"It's not just that we want to beat Baylor on Saturday," kicker Matthias Dunn said. "We need to attack practice on Tuesday, and then Wednesday, and then Thursday. If you attack each day and go 1-0 each day, then you'll be really happy with the result on Saturday. I think that's the mentality that we'll have to have as a leadership group, and also just individually throughout the whole team."

All of BYU's goals remain in front of them, but winning out is the first step – though winning in dominant fashion could earn the Cougars some style points from the playoff committee. It all starts Saturday against the Bears at LaVell Edwards Stadium.

"We've got to go 1-0 this week," Bruce Mitchell said. "We've got to have all focus on Baylor. We've got to put the loss behind us like we would put the win behind us and just focus on beating Baylor, focus on being our best selves, having a great week of preparation, understanding the game plan, the call sheet, and then just going out there and executing on Saturday."

With another loss likely ending BYU's playoff hopes, the margin for error is slim. The Cougars must find ways to improve in the areas that have given them trouble recently, particularly as the competition gets tougher and the stakes continue to rise.

"I believe in what we're doing as an offense and defense and special teams," Sitake said. "Offensively, we've got to look at how we can be better and put more points on the board. Defensively, we've got to find ways to create havoc and play better in terms of getting stops and not allowing points. Special teams have got to be the swing for us. If we're going to win in two out of the three phases of the game, then we should be in a really good spot."

BYU doesn't need to worry about what the rest of the country does if they can take care of business over the next three weeks. Their playoff hopes remain alive, but the opportunity to make program history is becoming narrow.

With three games standing between the Cougars and the CFP, the focus is simple: win out.

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