Utah House Republicans may lose supermajority for first time in decades

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah Republicans appear on track to lose their supermajority in the state House of Representatives for the first time this century.

The GOP will still maintain solid control of both chambers of the Legislature, but falling below the two-thirds threshold in the House would mean lacking enough votes to overturn gubernatorial vetoes or propose constitutional amendments without working with Democrats — privileges the party has enjoyed for 26 years.

"That would be consequential," said Adam Brown, a political science professor at Brigham Young University who closely studies the Utah Legislature, as election results were still being processed Wednesday.

According to the latest numbers, House Republicans could see their majority shrink from 61-14 at the start of this year to controlling as few as 44 seats in January.

Republicans will still hold a supermajority in the Utah Senate, but Senate Majority Leader Kirk Cullimore, R-Sandy, is on track to lose his seat. Cullimore, who was widely viewed as on track to become the next Senate president, trailed Democrat Shana Anderson by more than 4,000 votes as of Wednesday. He did not respond to a request for comment.

All told, 15 sitting Republican lawmakers were behind their challengers on Wednesday. Four other GOP-held seats are in danger of flipping to Democrats. Two of the candidates poised to win are unaffiliated and do not belong to a political party.

"Typically, Utah is insulated from national midterm politics," said Taylor Morgan, partner at Morgan May Public Affairs. "This is the first time in my 20 years working in Utah politics that a national wave, tsunami — I don't know what a larger wave is than a tsunami — but whatever this was, the blue bludgeoning, it came to Utah, and it came to Utah in a significant way."

Republican lawmakers react

Several incumbent Republicans say they expected to find themselves in tough races, but they were shocked at the breadth of their colleagues who could be wiped out by the blue wave.

Rep. Clint Okerlund, R-Sandy — who currently trails by nearly 1,600 votes to Democrat Iva Williams and has conceded the race — called the results a "transformational shift."

"I'm disappointed but introspective about the fact that it was a hard time to be a Republican and a hard time to be an incumbent, and that's probably our fault," he told KSL. "We lost the trust and confidence of the people."

Rep. Matt MacPherson, R-West Valley City, is still waiting for more results to be released, but sounded defeated midday Wednesday as he trailed Democrat Michael Finch by more than 2,300 votes.

"It's pretty obvious that there was a national wave that came through Utah as well," MacPherson said. "I think that was compounded by really a lot of missteps in the Legislature and basically in the state government."

MacPherson acknowledged that he was elected as a "pretty conservative guy" in a swing district in Salt Lake County, but noted that his colleague in a neighboring swing district — Rep. Anthony Loubet, R-West Valley City — hardly fared better.

"Loubet is a bit more moderate," MacPherson said. "Didn't look like that had any impact at all."

Loubet told KSL he planned to concede his race to Democrat Liz Oates. He said "initial frustration with Republicans even amongst Republicans" made it an "uphill battle on the campaign trail."

Other candidates held out hope that the additional results released later this week would swing the pendulum in their favor.

"I understand that only about half the ballots in Utah County have been tabulated and counted," said Rep. Norm Thurston, R-Provo, who was trailing Democrat David Chappell by nearly 600 votes. "Since traditionally later voters break Republican, it might be premature to declare an outcome."

Utah County is still processing about 85,000 ballots received on Tuesday, county clerk Aaron Davidson said. In Salt Lake County, election workers received more than 100,000 ballots on Tuesday and plan to release additional results on Thursday and Friday, which could impact some of the legislative races in question.

Voter anger

Backlash against the GOP-controlled Legislature is not unique to this election. Voters have already expressed anger by booting several incumbents from their seats earlier this year in primary elections. Senate President Stuart Adams, R-Layton, lost his primary race largely over backlash to a proposed data center in Box Elder County.

GOP incumbents blamed several additional factors, including rifts within the state GOP stemming from the 2024 gubernatorial race between Gov. Spencer Cox and then-state Rep. Phil Lyman, as well as general lack of trust in government and what some called a misguided effort to make it harder for voters to pass some citizen-led initiatives.

Amendment B, proposed by GOP lawmakers, would have required any initiatives that raise taxes to pass with 60% support instead of a simple majority. Instead, more than 60% of Utahns voted it down.

"Our decision to put Amendment B on the ballot probably drove a lot of voters to the polls," MacPherson said. "Probably a strategic error."

But Brown, the BYU professor, cautioned against attributing legislative losses to any specific reason other than widespread dissatisfaction with the Trump administration, which led to huge Democratic gains across the country.

"The biggest thing that drives a down-ballot race is what's happening at the top," Brown said. "When you have a president with extremely low approval ratings who spent the last several weeks repeatedly saying to people 'pretend I'm on the ballot,' you might find that a lot of voters take him up on that in an unexpected way."

Either way, the results could have significant impacts on the state Legislature that go beyond Republicans' ability to overturn vetoes. Rep. Jordan Teuscher, R-South Jordan, one of the incumbents on track to lose, chairs the powerful House Rules Committee, which determines which bills get a hearing.

"The House caucus lost a good number of Speaker (Mike) Schultz's strongest supporters," Morgan said. "I'll be surprised if he doesn't face a very strong challenger given what just happened."

Morgan added, "Things are really up in the air right now in terms of leadership and policy priorities going forward, and Republicans are going to have to reach across the aisle in 2027 more than they ever have before."

Regardless of political preference, Morgan said the results should serve to dispel cynicism among Utah's electorate about whether their vote counts.

"This election," he said, "proves that anything can happen."

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