Can a blue wave help a newcomer challenge Utah's top-ranking Republican in Congress?

SALT LAKE CITY — The race for Utah's 2nd Congressional District this year pits an established congressman against a first-time candidate seeking to represent northern Utah in Washington, D.C.

Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, is running for his fourth term in the U.S. House of Representatives, where he serves as the vice chairman of the Republican Conference. Moore is touting GOP accomplishments he has helped pass while in office, including extending tax credits in the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill and his role in creating savings accounts for children.

He's facing Peter Crosby, a Democrat, who is hoping to ride what is shaping up to be an anti-incumbent wave in November, as Americans continue to express frustration about rising prices brought on in part by President Donald Trump's tariffs and the war against Iran.

Crosby, who works as an adjunct professor and a director for an education research company, knows he will have to win over a significant number of Republican voters in the district if he hopes to win. He served as a Republican state delegate in Utah a decade ago and is leaning into that background.

"I get it. My values haven't changed, and I don't think your values have either," he said, appealing to conservatives who have concerns about Trump's second term in office. "But the national Republican Party no longer represents the values that we hold to be important. ... We don't need left versus right. What we need is Americans united to start fixing problems."

Moore, meanwhile, acknowledged the pain that tariffs and high gas prices have caused, but said his record shows he's able to "find a very productive lane" in turbulent political times.

"I think that's what people want out of their elected leaders," he said. "They don't want excuses. They don't want rhetoric. They just want someone that can see what's in front of them and get things done."

Close polling has Democrats hopeful

Although the district leans Republican, a recent poll of the race conducted for the Utah Debate Commission found Moore leading his challenger by just 5 points, 39-34%, suggesting the contest is closer than previously thought.

Moore maintains that his internal polling shows him faring better, but said he knows voters are frustrated.

"There is clearly frustration with gas prices," he said. "I think there is like this move to voting for a third-party candidate out of some frustration to the administration right now, and I get that."

"I just encourage people to look at my actual track record," he added.

The Moore campaign said its own polling shows Moore with a solid lead, though there appears to be more support for third-party candidates. That's not out of the ordinary for a midterm election year when the party in power typically faces backlash from voters upset with the status quo.

Crosby sees the close polling as validation that his campaign is resonating with voters. He has focused on addressing affordability, saying he would vote to roll back tariffs and supports single-payer health insurance with options for private coverage.

"I would ask to see what that advocacy has actually done for us," he said of Moore's position in leadership.

Leah Murray, director of Weber State University's Walker Institute of Politics & Public Service, said she's surprised by the polling, given the advantage Republicans are expected to have in the district. Murray also serves on the Utah Debate Commission.

"I can't believe it's that close because that just seems so out of step from what I would understand CD2 to be," she told KSL. "But my goodness, this has been an upheaval kind of year in elections."

She said the poll likely reflects general anger at the incumbent party in Washington.

"This is such an old adage, but ... it is always the economy, stupid, right?" she said. "I go to fill up my tank, and it is $5 per gallon for my car and $6 per gallon if I'm driving a truck that takes diesel. That is in my face every day."

Convincing Republicans to vote for Democrats still might be a tall order, Murray said.

"The bigger issue is that they will be so disappointed or disillusioned that they don't turn out to vote," she said.

What party is best for northern Utah?

Moore and Crosby found plenty to agree on during a recent debate, but Moore has sought to tie his opponent to the national Democratic Party, saying a Democratic majority in Congress could pave the way for New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries to serve as speaker.

"I don't think that a liberal New Yorker is going to land in the same spot as most of northern Utah," he said. "We can talk about the things that we agree with all the time, but Hakeem Jeffries and I don't agree on a lot of these items."

Crosby pushed back, saying his priorities would be supporting the Constitution and constituents in the district.

"There is no room within that reality for me to be a straight party-line voter on any issue, for any party," he said. "My obligation is here in northern Utah, not to any national political party."

Both candidates will continue making their pitch to voters over the next several weeks before Election Day.

"This is anybody's race," Crosby said. "I don't know what's going to happen on Election Day, but there's a real opportunity here for something different to happen in northern Utah."

What's next?

The Cook Political Report considers Utah's 2nd District to be a "Solid Republican" seat, and Murray said Crosby still faces a steep uphill climb thanks to the number of Republican voters in the district and the fundraising gap between him and Moore.

"The problem for Peter Crosby is he has got to be able to tell ... all those Republican voters, 'Just stay home,'" she said. "(He needs to) find enough independents who might swing to him, find all the Democrats and make sure they actually show up ... and that would require, I think, spending money to make that case and to tell that story."

Several third-party and unaffiliated candidates are also vying for Utah's 2nd Congressional District seat, including Independent American Party candidate Carlton Bowen, Libertarian Daniel Cottam and unaffiliated candidate Robert Moesinger.

County clerks began sending out ballots this week. Ballots must be returned to clerks by mail or by dropbox by 8 p.m. on Election Day, Nov. 3, for them to count.

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