Pick Six Previews: Utes to battle with Bruins, but turnovers to tip the scale in Utah favor

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah won another 2021 revenge game by defeating Oregon State 42-16 Saturday to move to 2-0 in Pac-12 play (4-1 overall). The game was closer than that 26-point margin would indicate, as Oregon State was able to roll up 417 yards and 21 first downs on the Utes defense.

Usual keys to the game, turnovers and red zone efficiency, flipped the win to Utah. All-America candidate Clark Phillips had three interceptions, returned one for a pick six, and his performance earned him Pac-12 defensive player of the week honors.

Phillips became the first Utes player with three picks in a game since 2009; and head coach Kyle Whittingham praised him not only for his athleticism and raw talent, but also for his studious game prep in the film room.

Oregon State advanced into the red zone five times but left with just 9 points: three field goals and two interceptions. Meanwhile, Utah capitalized with touchdowns on 3-of-4 red zone appearances. This was a total flip from the opening Florida loss and something Utah needs to continue to succeed in moving forward.

Utah has now won eight straight Pac-12 games but must travel to Los Angeles to take on a red-hot UCLA team that is now 5-0 after a statement victory over Washington.

This matchup is the first of two season-defining games against undefeated Pac-12 South rivals. The USC game next week has been circled for months and is a likely College GameDay option with a Utah win, but all of a sudden UCLA poses a threat that cannot be overlooked.

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-Year Average 2019-21: Utah 68.9 (7th) | UCLA 53.2 (30th of 66 Power Five)
2021 Season: Utah 69.5 (7th) | UCLA 59.7 (19th of 66 Power Five)
2022 Season: Utah 75.1 (8th) | UCLA 69.7 (15th of 66 Power Five)

Utah stacked another double-digit Pac-12 win onto the resume and jumped up six more spots from No. 14 to No. 8 in the 2022 Game Grader. They are just one spot behind Pac-12 leader No. 7 USC.

UCLA's 8-point win over Washington was more dominant than the score indicates and legitimized their undefeated record after it was questioned with their 1-point nail biter over non-AQ South Alabama.

UCLA with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

UCLA Offense: 16th of 66 Power Five
Utah Defense: 28th of 66 Power Five

Chip Kelly has quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson back for a fifth year, and this is his best offense yet. DTR is currently ranked in the Top 10 in the all-encompassing QB Rating, has an 11-1 touchdown to pick ratio, and a Top 5 completion percentage (74%). His dual-threat ability is just another layer to defend against.

Utah struggled against a mobile Anthony Richardson in the Florida loss, and this opponent brings a similar test. It is also a balanced offense, which ranks No. 2 in the Pac-12 in both passing and rushing.

Morgan Scalley's defense has been strong against the pass and currently ranks No. 3 nationally in opponent QB Rating. This is by far the toughest secondary and overall defense that UCLA has faced — no other opponent, so far, rates in the Top 50 of pass defenses. Something has to give here.

A concern for Utah is their rush defense. It feels strange to write that considering Utah has finished in the Pac-12's Top 3 rushing defenses every year since joining the Pac-12 in 2011. But uncharacteristically they currently rank sixth with a 4.1 per carry average (76th nationally). UCLA's Zach Charbonnet is one of the nation's toughest runners and will challenge this front seven.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah Offense: 33rd of 66 Power Five
UCLA Defense: 17th of 66 Power Five

There are two major questions heading forward for the Utah offense: First, how would the offense and surrounding receiving corps step up with the loss of do-it-all Brant Kuithe; second, where is the rushing attack?

The former question got some answers Saturday as eight guys had receptions, headlined by emerging star receiver Devaughn Vele (seven catches for 94 yards and a touchdown). Dalton Kincaid now gets an increased role as the lead tight end while Munir McClain and Thomas Yassmin are the "next men up."

Cam Rising continues to thrive with a national Top 20 QB Rating (13 touchdowns to 2 picks) and was actually the lead rusher on Saturday with 73 yards and a score. Like his counterpart, Rising has the mobility to crush defenses with his legs — both by extending plays in the pocket or by pulling the ball on option reads.

That second question, regarding the run game, remains open. Utah had a Top 5 national rushing offense last year and was No. 1 in my Offensive Line Run Push metric, but so far that has not been duplicated in 2022.

Look for Micah Bernard to get an increased workload as starter Tavion Thomas' status off the field remains an uncertainty. Thomas' share of carries has decreased and Chris Curry was lost to injury. I was intrigued to see former four-star quarterback Ja'Quinden Jackson getting carries as a running back (and also chuckled when the TV broadcast kept calling him a converted receiver).

Game prediction

Utah has dominated this series of late. They have won five straight, with the last four won by an average margin of 32 points per game. I was at the 2018 game in a half-empty Rose Bowl and saw Utah fans take over their U-C-L-A chant with a U-T-A-H. Whittingham and Scalley have completely shut down Kelly's offense in the past.

With that said, this matchup will be a battle. I look for both offenses to have success — Utah through the air and UCLA on the ground — but for Utah to win the turnover margin and win a close shootout.

Utah 41 | UCLA 35

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