Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
This archived news story is available only for your personal, non-commercial use. Information in the story may be outdated or superseded by additional information. Reading or replaying the story in its archived form does not constitute a republication of the story.
PROVO — In 2012, I launched Pick Six Previews — an annual college football season preview magazine that includes all Power Five conferences. Despite BYU's independent status, it was really a no-brainer for me to include them as an extra team in the book.
I always thought that BYU deserved a Power Five spot, so I am glad to see that finally come to fruition with the future Big 12. This program features a national championship, a Heisman winner, an impressive lineage of quarterbacks, and decades of hard-nosed, winning football.
And of course, the BYU fan base has a national presence and a high level of passion. I quickly noticed just how intense BYU football fans are. On Twitter, I saw BYU and Utah fans interacting 365 days a year, and I'm convinced this rivalry is the most under-appreciated in America. So I could not be more excited to accept the weekly in-season contributor role here with KSL.com covering BYU and Utah — we'll follow along together game-by-game with a mix of film review and my Game Grader analytics.
In the 2022 edition of Pick Six Previews, I selected BYU at No. 15 in my preseason poll, which is the highest among all publications and 10 spots higher than their spot in the Associated Press Top 25 poll. Other national pundits critiqued BYU in 2020 for their lack of Power Five opponents (an issue out of their control thanks to the conference-only schedule requirements).
But the 2021 team quickly shattered that narrative by sweeping the Pac-12 with a perfect 5-0 record, defeated Utah for the first time since 2009, and even beat former head coach Bronco Mendenhall's UVA squad.
This 2022 team will be Kalani Sitake's best team yet, and I am shocked at how overlooked they are this preseason. Sitake was one of my favorite head coach interviews, and he noted the impact of Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham and how they have built their programs similarly. The physicality, the player development, the tight team culture — its all there.
Much like with Utah, I've found another diamond-in-the-rough program that is often overlooked on the national scene.
Offense
Zach Wilson continued BYU's quarterback tradition and left Provo as the NFL's No. 2 overall pick. Normally a departure like that would crater an offense, but Jaren Hall took over and played flawless football right away. He is elusive in the pocket and has the foot speed to make defenses pay, whether it be scrambles down the sideline or timely pulls on zone reads.
Hall completed 64% of passes for 2,500+ yards, good for 8.7 per attempt, and held a 20-5 touchdown-to-pick ratio. For context, his QB Rating would have led the entire Pac-12. Hall also added 300+ rushing yards and three scores.
Last season, BYU's offense ranked 12th nationally in my opponent-adjusted, per-play offensive percentiles. Even better, eight starters return, which includes Hall, the entire starting offensive line, and playmakers on the outsides.
The offensive line was one of just eight in the nation that placed in the top 25 of both my Sack Rate (pass protection) and Run Push metrics. Clark Barrington is the headliner and earned a spot on my preseason All-America offense. He is joined on the All-America fourth team by receiver Puka Nacua, the former four-star who transferred in from Washington and put up 803 receiving yards last year.
Tyler Allgeier is the biggest missing piece from the 2021 offense. Allgeier led the nation with 23 rushing touchdowns and broke the BYU single-season record for rushing yards by eclipsing the 1,600-yard milestone. The staff landed a multi-year Pac-12 starting running back in California's Christopher Brooks, who has run for 1,700+ yards and 21 scores in his career.
Behind Brooks, BYU has long-time backup Lopini Katoa, who actually led the team in rushing yards back in 2018. Jackson McChesney flashed his speed against USC and could have an increased role.
Defense
All the inexperience of 2021 now pays dividends, resulting in the No. 1 most returning production in America, which is a reliable pointer towards statistical improvements. The kicker: 15 of the top 16 tacklers are back, including the two most important at linebacker whose injuries shifted the season.
Payton Wilgar and Keenan Pili are both NFL prospects and there was a clear drop-off after Pili was knocked out for the season and as Wilgar's shoulder injury limited him down the stretch. Per my opponent-adjusted offensive percentiles:
- First six games: 32nd of 66 Power Five; 20.5 points/game
- Final seven games: 58th of 66 Power Five; 28.4 points/game
Now both Wilgar and Pili are back healthy, plus 2021 tackle leader Ben Bywater returns to round out the defense's strongest position group.
Outlook
BYU is one of the most under-rated teams heading into 2022. They are in the discussion with Notre Dame as the two best teams not in a Power Five league. By that logic, I have BYU projected to beat all seven non-Power Five teams. I'd label Stanford as a very-likely win to get the floor to eight wins.
From there, they face four top 15 opponents, including the defending Big 12 champs (Baylor), the No. 1 West Coast recruiting powerhouse (Oregon), a consistent winner (Notre Dame), and a fast-rising SEC opponent (Arkansas). BYU's "over" at 7.5 wins is one of my best bets of the entire 2022 season.
