Pick Six Previews: Utah's defense to overpower Cal en route to home win

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah comes off the bye week with a 4-1 record and a 1-1 mark in Pac-12 play.

The bye week was well-timed since this is likely the most injured starting lineup and two-deep in America. The unlucky injury run has become the primary storyline of the first half of the season because it has impacted every facet of the team and has severely limited the offense.

While the one loss does not derail Utah's quest for a conference title three-peat, it does eliminate their margin for error going forward. The Utes still have matchups with the other three undefeated powers of Oregon, USC and Washington looming over the next five games.

First, Utah will face off with another defensive-minded head coach and program in the California Golden Bears (1 p.m. MDT, Pac-12 Networks).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2020-22): Utah 66.9 (6th) | California 41.7 (53rd of 69 Power Five)
2022 season: Utah 69.2 (10th) | California 34.8 (57th of 69 Power Five)
2023 season: Utah 54.4 (33rd) | California 45.0 (45th of 69 Power Five)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. Utah stacked another national top 10 finish last year, and thanks to the high amount of returning production, program-record recruiting classes, and proven coaching staff, they earned a No. 8 rank in my 2023 preseason magazine.

Utah's 4-1 start has been filled with close wins, and those slim margins hurt their rank in 2023 Game Grader so far. It is notable that they were able to win three Power Five games despite having such a large chunk of the roster and star power on the sidelines.

Game Grader doesn't factor in injuries, so while it is a useful tool, I personally view Utah much higher than their middle-tier 33rd ranking. I have the Utes ranked No. 16 in my FWAA Super 16 Poll entering Saturday.

Cal has an FCS win, a non-AQ win, and a slim 3-point win over Arizona State, who is currently the second-lowest graded Pac-12 team. The Bears fought Auburn to a close 14-10 decision, but have lost by two touchdowns to Oregon State and Washington State. They have been outgained in four of their six games and currently check in at 45th in Game Grader — eighth in the Pac-12.

California with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

California offense: 44th of 69 Power Five (overall), 56th passing, 17th rushing
Utah defense: 15th of 69 Power Five (overall), 14th passing, 1st rushing

Cal's offense made the move to modernize its scheme by bringing back former coordinator Jake Spavital to install his spread passing attack. He has built a reputation as a quarterback developer having worked with stars like Johnny Manziel, Kyler Murray and Geno Smith over the years, but inherited a thin quarterback room here at Cal this offseason.

The Bears have rotated quarterbacks all year — first between TCU transfer Sam Jackson and NC State transfer Ben Finley — but have settled on true freshman Fernando Mendoza. The 6-foot-5 youngster went 21-of-32 for 207 yards and two touchdowns against the same Oregon State defense that held Utah to just 7 points.

Still, this is a run-first offense given their strength in the backfield and in the trenches. The offensive line is in the top 25 of both my OL Run Push metric and Pass Protection sack rate, while their pair of backs, Jaydyn Ott and Isaiah Ifanse, have already combined for over 900 yards. Ott leads the whole conference (556), while Ifanse scored three touchdowns last week.

It will be strength on strength here, as Utah enters with the No. 1 rushing defense in the nation per my opponent-adjusted, per-play metrics. The pass rush has been elite so far, and "Sack Lake City" will challenge that Cal pass protection — a matchup where I lean with Utah.

Despite losing Logan Fano to injury, the defensive line remains a strength as Jonah Elliss leads all of Power Five in tackles for loss per game (10.5 total). I expect Utah's front seven to neutralize, or at least slow down, the Cal rushing attack and force the young quarterback to try to beat them through the air.

I'll take Morgan Scalley's unit here.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense (2023): 69th of 69 Power Five (overall), 62nd passing, 56th rushing
California defense (2023): 36th of 69 Power Five (overall), 66th passing, 15th rushing

Cam Rising watch enters Week 7, and we are still unsure about the timeline of the two-time conference champion quarterback's return. After a radio appearance a week ago, Rising revealed that his injury was much worse than originally reported. Head coach Kyle Whittingham also said he wanted injury decisions to come earlier in the week to reallocate the practice reps accordingly.

In addition to the quarterback issues, the rest of the offense is now ranked dead last in Power Five — 69th of 69 teams — per my metrics. I am shocked at the lack of a consistent run push from the offensive line, but injuries have also damaged the running back room with Ja'Quinden Jackson and Micah Bernard missing time.

Given the extra rest week, it's possible that Jackson returns Saturday to provide a much-needed playmaking boost.

Cal head coach Justin Wilcox has built a defense-first program, and while their pass defense has struggled, they have been stout against the run. This aligns with the relative strengths and weaknesses of the Utah offense so far, assuming we do not see Rising's return.

Game prediction

No team in America needed a bye week more than Utah — not only with the pile of injuries, but also the emotional toll and grind of playing four Power Five opponents in the first five weeks.

A hopefully refreshed roster now had two weeks to figure out the offensive issues — or at least find ways to work with their limitations. I expect Utah's defense to overpower Cal's offense, and for that margin to be more decisive than the matchup on the other side of the ball.

Utah gets back in the win column before an all-time Pac-12 gauntlet kicks off.

Utah 27 | California 17

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