Pac-12 bowl projections: Utah to the playoff, UCLA to Las Vegas as Washington's postseason math turns complicated

The Pac-12 bowl selection process in 2026 treats the former conference as if it never imploded, grouping the 12 legacy schools together just as it did the previous two years. Meanwhile, the new Pac-12 teams have separate postseason arrangements. To simplify the situation, we have split the 18 teams into two groups: Pac-12 legacy bowls and Pac-12 new bowls. Washington State and Oregon State are part of the legacy bowl process with the exception of the Poinsettia Bowl, where they would compete as a new Pac-12 team. Bowl projections will be published on the Hotline each Tuesday through the regular season.

Washington began September as a playoff dark horse and ended the month just hoping to make its bowl math work.

When does a 3-1 record feel like 1-3?

When the lone loss reinforces all the concerns and exposes all the vulnerabilities present during the three victories.

The Huskies looked wobbly in the opener, when they needed a strong fourth quarter to pull away from Washington State.

They flopped and flailed in Week 2, narrowly avoiding a loss to Utah State.

Their demolition of Eastern Washington offered nothing but false hope.

Then came Minnesota, mighty Minnesota, which hadn't won a road game in 22 months or been a factor in the Big Ten since the pre-COVID era.

The 12.5-point underdogs administered a beatdown far worse than the 27-24 score suggested.

The Huskies could not tackle or block — other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play? — and they were astoundingly inept on third down, along with second down and first down.

All of which leads the Hotline to offer the following thought: Are we sure Washington is a bowl team?

Forget the College Football Playoff. That's as likely as the Huskies qualifying for the NFC playoffs.

Instead, let's examine their path into the bowl season which, as many fans are undoubtedly aware, requires at least six victories.

Which means the Huskies must win three of their final eight games.

Seems simple enough, right?

Once you account for how poorly UW played against September competition that is vastly inferior to the October and November opponents, the bowl math begins to resemble trigonometry.

The Huskies are heavy underdogs this week at No. 18 USC.

Then comes Iowa, which just beat Michigan at the Big House.

The mid-October trip to Purdue could produce a victory.

Halloween will be spent in the heartland, where Nebraska — unlike Washington — has overpowered lesser teams en route to an undefeated record.

Penn State visits Seattle in early November. That feels like a 50-50 game.

Then Washington heads across the country for the third time in five weeks, to Michigan State. Granted, the Spartans look like a lower-tier finisher, but so, too, did Wisconsin back in November 2025, and we all remember what happened in Madison.

The final fortnight features a visit from No. 6 Indiana and a trip to No. 14 Oregon.

By our count, the Huskies have one game — one! — that they absolutely should win: at Purdue.

Three games are, at best, daunting: USC and Oregon on the road and Indiana at home.

The remaining matchups feel like toss-ups: Iowa and Penn State at home; Nebraska and Michigan State on the road.

If the Huskies handle Purdue and split the toss-ups, that's six wins. That's a bowl bid.

But in order to make the math work, they must execute the basics exponentially better than they did against Minnesota, Utah State and Washington State.

To make the bowl math work, October and November cannot be a continuation of September.

To make the bowl math work, the Huskies must evolve into something that resembles the team everyone thought they would be a mere 25 days ago.

Anything less, and UW could very well spend the holidays at home.

To the bowl projections …

Pac-12 legacy bowls

College Football Playoff

Team: Utah

Comment: We are hesitant to call it a two-game season (i.e., the Holy War and the Big 12 championship game) but, well, it's basically a two-game season. If the Utes (4-0) split, they would finish as a one-loss, playoff-bound team that qualifies as a conference champion or an at-large participant.

Alamo Bowl

Team: Oregon

Comment: The schedule is just soft enough — actually, let's rephrase: the Big Ten is just soft enough — that the Ducks (3-1) can realistically clear the 10-win threshold seemingly needed for a CFP berth. But it will be close, and a victory over UCLA in two weeks is essential.

Las Vegas Bowl

Team: UCLA

Comment: The Bruins (4-0) aren't known for having a passionate fan base. But an eight- or nine-win season, combined with the short drive to Sin City for a New Year's Eve kickoff, would make them an attractive pick for bowl officials.

Holiday Bowl

Team: USC

Comment: We don't view a coaching change as likely at this point, but it's certainly within the reasonable range of outcomes following the loss to Oregon. If the Trojans (4-1) fire Lincoln Riley, their value on the bowl circuit would plunge.

Sun Bowl

Team: Arizona

Comment: In our view, the likelihood of a berth in the Big 12 championship game being on the line in the Territorial Cup is less than 50%. But there's an excellent chance bowl bids are at stake for both the Wildcats (3-1) and Arizona State.

Poinsettia Bowl

Team: Arizona State

Comment: In the scenario presented here, it's not as simple as the winner of the Territorial Cup going to the Sun Bowl and the loser to the Poinsettia Bowl, because Arizona was in San Diego last year and the Sun Devils (2-1) were in El Paso. (The Holiday Bowl operates the Poinsettia, in case you were unaware.)

Independence Bowl

Team: Washington

Comment: The soft non-conference schedule did a poor job preparing the Huskies (3-1) for conference play, but they might be thankful for every last win if the bowl math is as complicated as we expect.

Non-qualifier

Team: Cal

Comment: If October and November are anything like September, the Bears (2-2) will be fortunate to win four games, much less secure the six needed for a bowl berth. And improving on the 7-6 record from last season? Forget about it.

Non-qualifier

Team: Colorado

Comment: The Week 1 victory at Georgia Tech looked impressive for CU (2-2) at the time but is now meaningless. The Yellow Jackets were blown out by Tennessee and just lost to Stanford.

Non-qualifier

Team: Stanford

Comment: It's possible to view the remaining schedule with enough optimism to project the Cardinal (2-2) to win five games. But six? Not with five road games remaining.

Non-qualifier

Team: Washington State

Comment: The Cougars (1-3) won the game they were supposed to win (Duquesne) and have lost the games they were supposed to lose, and that's the risk that accompanies a stout non-conference schedule. If the trend continues, they will finish one victory short.

Pac-12 new bowls

College Football Playoff

Team: Boise State

Comment: The Broncos' chief competition for the Group of Six Playoff bid could come from a former Mountain West counterpart: New Mexico. Also, don't ignore James Madison or South Florida.

Poinsettia Bowl

Team: Oregon State

Comment: The Beavers (2-2) are tracking for seven wins, and perhaps eight, which should position them to slide into the new Pac-12 bowl lineup. From there, they can only go to the Playoff or the Poinsettia.

Hawaii Bowl

Team: Fresno State

Comment: The Bulldogs (3-1) host Oregon State on Halloween. Don't be surprised if the outcome plays an outsized role in the bowl assignments for teams in the new and legacy Pac-12 bowls.

ESPN bowl pool

Team: Texas State

Comment: After their 0-2 start, the Bobcats (2-2) could have a five-game winning streak when they head to Boise State at the end of October. In that case, they would have plenty of chances to secure one win.

Non-qualifier

Team: Colorado State

Comment: The Rams (2-2) have enough offense to win four games against Pac-12 competition, but we aren't convinced they have enough defense.

Non-qualifier

Team: San Diego State

Comment: It has turned difficult quickly for the Aztecs (1-3). We were aware of the possibility given their arduous non-conference schedule, but the severity of the downturn was not expected. The wheels are off, the soft underbelly is exposed and coach Sean Lewis needs a remedy sooner than later.

Non-qualifier

Team: Utah State

Comment: The Aggies (1-3) are tentatively scheduled to host Boise State on the flex Saturday. If the Broncos have the pole position for the Group of Six playoff berth at that point, expect that matchup to remain in place.

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