BCS 411

The latest BCS Standings are out, and the gap between the Cougars and Utes has grown from seven ranking spots to ten, with their showdown less than two weeks away.

Once-beaten BYU (15th last week) is now 17th, while undefeated Utah (8th last week) is now 7th.

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The latest standings can be seen here, or here.

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Of note, Ball State (14th) was one of three teams to jump the Cougars--the others were Michigan State (15th) and North Carolina (16th).

BYU was ranked 14th in both the Harris and Coaches' Polls, but the Cougars' season-long computer woes continue to haunt them. BYU is tied for 19th in the computer rankings, while Utah is now 4th in the computers, behind only Texas Tech, Alabama and Texas.

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BYU's strength of schedule quotient would get a boost with wins in its last two games (Air Force and Utah are a combined 18-2), but while the Utes will get little credit for beating SDSU, a loss to BYU would conceivably not be altogether punitive, considering the Cougars' placing in the Top 25.

With a current BCS Standings gap of ten ranking spots and a computer gap of 15 ranking spots, it's a real question whether BYU can catch Utah in the BCS Standings, even with a win over the Utes.

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Interestingly, the Cougars and Utes are separated only six-and-a-half ranking spots is the human polls, so a win over Utah would help BYU most with those pollsters, but a blowout win might be needed to give BYU any shot of surpassing the Utes in the final BCS Standings--since Utah's computer numbers are not likely to drop dramatically in the final two weeks. The other question is whether wins over Air Force and Utah would boost BYU's computer numbers enough to sufficiently narrow the significant computer gap.

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Relative to the BCS, the Big Ten improved its chances to be a two-bid league with Ohio State and Michigan State winning, while Penn State's loss put the conference title race once again up for grabs. If the Big Ten and/or Pac-10 (should Oregon State win out) become two-bid league options, it's likely only one non-BCS team will have a shot at the big money bowls this season. If that's the case, an undefeated Utah gets in. If Utah loses, and Boise State goes unbeaten, the Broncos are in. If both Utah and Boise State lose, then undefeated Ball State may get in--assuming the Cardinals can go Top 12 ahead of Utah, or be the highest-ranked non-BCS league champ in the Top 16, ahead of a BCS league champ.

Assuming only one non-BCS spot will be available, BYU is now needing to win out, have Boise State and Ball State lose, and hope that it can somehow finish ahead of Utah in the final BCS Standings.

The bottom line is this: in the race to be the highest-rated non-BCS team, three such teams are ahead of BYU right now, and the highest-ranked competitor is a full ten spots in front with only two weeks to play.

If the Big Ten and Pac-10 slip to one-bid league status, then an additional Top 14 non-BCS bid could become available, but those chances look less likely after this past week.

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The Cougars play at Air Force this coming Saturday, and the Cadets are looking good, winning five in a row since losing back-to-back games to Utah and Navy.

The sports columnist for the Colorado Springs Gazette likes the Falcons' chances for an upset, but then again, he is the same columnist who didn't think the BYU Basketball team that won at Air Force earlier this season was anything to write home about--"If BYU is the best team in the conference, then the conference is in trouble," he wrote at the time, and he wrote this after BYU beat the Cadets by 16 at Clune Arena (Air Force's worst home loss in eight years). BYU of course went 14-2 and won the league outright for a second straight season.

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Air Force's football team does rank 4th nationally in rushing yardage, but it's not they're remarkably good at it--it's just that they do it a lot. I say that with tongue-in-cheek, but there's some truth to the assertion.

Consider that the Falcons' 4.43 yard per carry average is decent, but among teams in the Top 30 in rushing yardage, it ranks dead last. The nation's number one rushing team, Nevada (watch out, Boise State!), is much more impressive, gaining almost 200 more rushing yards than Air Force on almost 200 fewer carries, with a yards per carry average of 6.72.

Air Force has had more carries than any other team in the FBS--70 more carries than the next closest team, as a matter of fact.

Of course, Falcons' QB Tim Jefferson had a relatively big passing day in the win over Colorado State (6/8, 171, 2 tds), and if the Cadets are mixing it up against BYU, things could get interesting. But if Air Force is not having success through the air, the Cougars should prevail. BYU annually holds the Falcons well below their rushing averages, and has rarely allowed games against the Cadets to get away. BYU has won the last four against Air Force, by an average score of 42-21.

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