Pick Six Previews: Intangibles point toward BYU, but TCU to get win

PROVO — For the first time since 2011, BYU and TCU face off on the gridiron.

Back then, they were both members of the non-AQ Mountain West Conference, but have now both been elevated to the Power Five level in the Big 12. BYU defeated Cincinnati two weekends ago to notch the program's first Big 12 win and start with a strong 4-1 record before the bye week.

The storylines of the first half of the season have been the pass-heavy offense led by quarterback Kedon Slovis, the improved defense under new coordinator Jay Hill, and most importantly, BYU's resiliency in grinding out close wins.

If a 6-6 record was the initial preseason goal, it now appears that more of the Big 12 games are winnable, and an even higher-tier bowl game is a possibility. After the bye week, BYU now travels down to Fort Worth, Texas, to take on the defending national runner-ups (1:30 p.m. MDT, ESPN).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2020-22): BYU 60.5 (16th of 69 Power Five) | TCU 56.4 (25th)
2022 season: BYU 45.4 (50th of 69 Power Five) | TCU 71.2 (8th)
2023 season: BYU 49.5 (36th of 69 Power Five) | TCU 58.3 (29th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After peaking at No. 5 in 2020, BYU slid to No. 26 in 2021 and then collapsed last year all the way down to No. 50 (of 69 Power Five teams) for the second-worst grade of the entire Kalani Sitake era.

After the 4-1 start, BYU has climbed up into the top 40, at No. 36 in 2023 Game Grader.

TCU surprised the college football world with an undefeated regular season and national title appearance last year — in a coaching transition season — but have failed to carry that magic into 2023. TCU lost a wild shootout to Colorado in the opener and are now reeling after consecutive Big 12 losses to West Virginia and Iowa State.

Game Grader shows the Horned Frogs are stronger than their record would indicate, but they need to convert their yards into points at a better rate.

TCU with the ball

TCU offense: 27th of 69 Power Five (overall), 37th passing, 14th rushing
BYU defense: 44th of 69 Power Five (overall), 32nd passing, 62nd rushing

Last year, veteran dual-threat quarterback Max Duggan led TCU to the national title game. Unfortunately, he and the majority of that starting lineup have departed, and the new-look Horned Frogs offense has struggled to get points on the board with their 31.3 points per game, ranked just 53rd nationally.

They have moved the ball just fine, racking up 473 yards per game (16th nationally), but their problems have been turnovers (10) and red zone scoring (66%) — both of those stats are some of the worst in America.

In their loss to Iowa State Saturday, starting quarterback Chandler Morris was knocked out for the season with a torn MCL, and TCU now turns to freshman backup Josh Hoover. This could signal even more of a focus on the ground game as their star running back Emani Bailey already has four 100+ yard games and is fourth in the nation with 690 rushing yards.

Advantage TCU.

TCU's rushing attack is in the top 15 of my opponent-adjusted numbers, while BYU's rushing defense is in the bottom 10. The absence of star linebacker Ben Bywater hurts even more this week. BYU will need to put together a full four quarters like the second half against Arkansas and first half against Kansas.

BYU with the ball

BYU offense: 64th of 69 Power Five (overall), 51st passing, 69th rushing
TCU defense: 57th of 69 Power Five (overall), 25th passing, 46th rushing

Dead last in Power Five. BYU's rushing offense struggled over the first few games, and then the staff abandoned it altogether and doubled down on their passing attack. Innovative passing offenses have been in the program DNA for decades here, but still a competent run game is needed to compete.

BYU is throwing the ball on 55% of their offensive snaps, which may not sound high at face value, but it is actually the 6th most pass-heavy ratio in Power 5. Unfortunately, that plays right into the strength of the TCU defense – their Top 25 pass defense and star-studded secondary.

While TCU's offense had to be fully rebuilt this offseason, they had much more experience returning on this side of the ball.

Even despite losing the Thorpe Award winner, head coach Sonny Dykes called this cornerback room his deepest yet, with Josh Newton returning at one corner, and No. 1 JUCO transfer Channing Canada and Florida transfer Avery Helm rotating at the other one. The safety trio of Bud Clark, Mark Perry, and Millard Bradford round out one of the nation's top secondaries.

Coordinator Joe Gillespie has a unique defensive scheme, and his 3-3-5 base continues to confuse opposing quarterbacks. This is by far the best passing defense BYU has faced yet.

Game prediction

The intangibles point toward BYU — they are coming off a rest week, while TCU is worn down with injuries and a two-game losing streak; however, two key matchup advantages tilt the game in TCU's direction. TCU's secondary against BYU's pass-heavy offense, and TCU's rushing attack against BYU's rushing defense.

My Game Grader formula would favor TCU on a neutral field by about 4 points, and homefield advantage pushes it even more towards the Horned Frogs.

TCU 31 | BYU 24

Related topics