Pick Six Previews: BYU to bounce back against Liberty amid defensive woes

PROVO — BYU lost a shootout Saturday in the school's third time ever hosting an SEC opponent in Provo. Arkansas won 52-35 with two unanswered touchdowns that extended a 38-35 lead.

The biggest theme from the game was BYU's inability to stop — or even slow — the Arkansas offense. From the middle of the first quarter until the start of the fourth quarter, Arkansas scored on eight straight possessions (seven touchdowns and a field goal).

Offensive coordinator Kendal Briles used creative play designs that placed their receivers wide open all game, and quarterback KJ Jefferson put up 353 passing yards and a career-high five touchdowns. It wasn't just the aerial assault as Arkansas had success on the ground to round out a balanced attack. Running back Rocket Sanders rushed for a career-high 175 yards and added two scores.

BYU brought four guys in pass rush and placed a fifth defender as a spy on Jefferson, and remained in zone coverage for most of the game. That four-man rush failed to generate pressure and Jefferson picked apart the zone. Even when the rush did hit home, Jefferson broke three tackles behind the line-of-scrimmage, then completed the pass to convert a crucial third-and-long.

Arkansas' 644 total yards and 52 points are both the most a BYU defense has allowed in a game since 2016 (Toledo). Head coach Kalani Sitake mentioned he will consider taking over the play-calling role for the defense and will "make decisions."

At the start of October, I had called the Notre Dame and Arkansas games a season-defining, two-week stretch for future Power Five program BYU. The Cougars went 0-2 by getting ball-controlled by Notre Dame and then allowed eight straight scores to Arkansas. The double-digit-win season is now off the table, but it appears BYU will still be favored in its final five games.

Next up is a cross-country trip to Lynchburg, Virginia, to play 6-1 Liberty (1:30pm MDT, ESPNU).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

2022 Season: BYU 49.2 (40th of 66 Power Five) | Liberty 43.5 (49th Power Five equivalent)

The loss to Arkansas dropped BYU eight spots to No. 40 in 2022 Game Grader. This is the first time BYU has fallen below the Power Five average since 2019. While the Notre Dame loss was within one score, it was a -180 yardage margin. The Arkansas loss was decisive on the scoreboard (17 points), the stat sheet (-200 yardage margin), and in the turnover game (-2).

Liberty holds a 6-1 record and was a failed "Philly Special" 2-point conversion away from knocking off a ranked Wake Forest team in Winston-Salem. While not a Power Five team, they hold an equivalent score of No. 49 in 2022 Game Grader.

Liberty with the ball

(Yards per play, national rankings out of 131 FBS teams)

Liberty Offense: 5.8 yards/play, 73rd in FBS

BYU Defense: 5.7 yards/play allowed, 76th in FBS

This side of the ball is the biggest question within the BYU program right now. Fans have lost patience with defensive coordinator Ilaisa Tuiaki and it remains to be seen how Sitake will change the defense over the back half of the 2022 season. After a relatively strong start, the BYU defense has now fallen to No. 44 (of 66) in Pick Six Previews' opponent-adjusted, per-play percentiles.

The zone coverage failed against Arkansas, but there was another peculiarity that stood out when watching BYU. The defense substitutes and rotates players more than any in America. The number being reported is that the starting 11 defenders only played in 56% of the snaps — for reference, the national average is in the 75%-90% range.

In the second quarter, I was stunned as BYU rotated all 11 defenders before a pivotal third-down snap. I had never seen that in a football game, and probably for good reason. The new eleven players have to sprint 30+ yards and scramble into position, with minimal time for formation identification and pre-snap adjustments. No surprise, Arkansas converted that third down.

Liberty has had some offensive struggles of their own. Freshman quarterback Kaidon Salter is dynamic in the zone read game, is an effective scrambler, but the passing game has room for improvement. Against Wake Forest, he turned the ball over three times, and on the season he's got a 55% completion rate and a 6-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

BYU with the ball

(Yards/play, national rankings out of 131 FBS teams)

BYU Offense: 6.7 yards/play, 24th in FBS

Liberty Defense: 4.8 yards/play allowed, 21st in FBS

It will be strength on strength when BYU has the ball.

Quarterback Jaren Hall put up a career-high 356 passing yards, and star receiver Puka Nacua had his breakout game after dealing with injuries in September. Nacua caught two touchdowns, ran for another, and had a fourth touchdown (60 yards) called back by penalty. Kody Epps continues to shine and has scored a touchdown in five-straight games.

Running back depth has become a concern, as BYU's second, third, fourth, and fifth backs are all injured. The run game was held to just 29 yards in the first half before starter Christopher Brooks rounded into form in the second half.

Hall will need another complete game against a Liberty defense that ranks in the national top 25 in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and is No. 12 in the all-encompassing Opponent QB Rating.

Game prediction

Look for BYU to bounce back with a win — even if the defense is still under construction. Hall has played near-perfect football and gives BYU the advantage in this cross-country roadtrip.

BYU 34 | Liberty 30

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