Pick Six Preview: BYU will be tested, and Notre Dame will pull away for a win

PROVO — BYU got to 5-0 with a 24-10 win over Iowa State in a game that was much more dominant than the final score would suggest. BYU held a 14-3 lead at halftime, 21-3 after three quarters, and finished the game with a massive 300+ yardage margin.

Without All-Big 12 running back LJ Martin, BYU put even more responsibility onto sophomore quarterback Bear Bachmeier — and he was excellent. Bachmeier threw for a season-high 329 passing yards, added 109 on the ground, and completed the school's third-ever 300-100 game — the first since Taysom Hill.

The defense held Iowa State to its lowest halftime yardage total (49 yards) since 2017 and their lowest full game yardage (200) since 2018. BYU completely neutralized Iowa State's breakout offensive weapon Aidan Flora, holding him to just 86 yards.

BYU hosts Notre Dame Saturday night in Provo's first-ever top 10 vs. top 10 matchup (5:30 p.m. MT, ABC).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2023-25): BYU 55.3 (28th of 68 Power 4) | Notre Dame 79.5 (3rd)
2025 season: BYU 63.4 (19th) | Notre Dame 83.7 (4th)
2026 season: BYU 66.4 (12th) | Notre Dame 90.4 (1st)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected BYU to finish second in the Big 12 race, and the Cougars earned a preseason top-25 ranking with my No. 17 spot. After the 5-0 start, BYU has moved up to No. 12.

I selected Notre Dame No. 4 nationally in the preview magazine, and they have lived up to those expectations so far. Notre Dame is riding a 16-game double-digit win streak, which is the fourth longest in college football history, trailing only 1888-89 Yale, WWII Army, and 2000-01 Miami. With their weekly blowout wins, they have moved up to No. 1 in Game Grader.

BYU with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

BYU offense: 13th of 68 Power 4
Notre Dame defense: 12th of 68 Power 4

Bachmeier has picked up the slack without Martin in the backfield, but the Notre Dame defense presents a whole new test. Notre Dame ranks 12th in my opponent-adjusted metric; but stats aside, this is certainly a top-five defense in the country as their lineup is packed with All-America candidates and future NFL Drdaft picks.

They have a projected first-rounder at each level of the defense: corner Leonard Moore, defensive end Boubacar Traore, and linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa.

Notre Dame has been able to get constant pressure with a normal four-man rush, leaving extra resources back in coverage. They will make sure to contain Bachmeier's scrambles, and will get BYU behind the chains setting up predictable third-and-long passing downs. BYU's new pass-catchers have been impressive so far, but this defense is even stronger than the TCU unit that held BYU in check two weeks ago.

Notre Dame with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Notre Dame offense: 10th of 68 Power 4
BYU defense: 2nd of 68 Power 4

Notre Dame had to replace a pair of first-round running backs and their run game started slow in September, but it's rounding into form here at the midseason point. Jonaz Walton and Nolan James are both averaging 7+ yards/carry over the past few games.

Another area of concern was explosive plays from the receiver position, and BYU ranks ninth nationally at limiting long-yardage pass plays. Quarterback CJ Carr may no longer be the Heisman front-runner but he has been excellent so far ranking in the top 10 in almost every passing category — QB rating, yards per attempt, and TD-INT ratio with 16 touchdowns to just one pick.

BYU is hoping to get back two impact starters who have missed games with injuries in safety Raider Damuni and do-it-all linebacker Isaiah Glasker. On a Tuesday radio segment, head coach Kalani Sitake said "don't count out Glasker."

With or without those two starters, this will be the most complete, most physical, and most talented offense BYU has faced so far.

Game prediction

These two teams ended up on the wrong side of the 2025 playoff bubble as the last two teams out of the bracket; both had legit resumes and arguments for a spot. And now a year later, both teams return the bulk of their starting lineups as two of the better roster retention efforts this cycle.

As expected, they both enter as undefeated top-10 teams, and this one will have lasting playoff resume stakes. This is being considered the most important home game in BYU history — or at least since the 1990s — and ESPN's College GameDay is on campus for the first time since 2009.

Look for Notre Dame to limit Bachmeier's mobility, forcing BYU into predictable passing downs, and for their elite secondary to tighten up coverage. BYU's defense should hold its ground also, but Notre Dame will eventually wear them down in the second-half.

Notre Dame 27 | BYU 14

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