Hawaii could see its first hurricane landfall in decades as Lala strengthens

MAUI, Hawaii — Hawaii is bracing for a potential hurricane strike this weekend after Tropical Storm Lala's forecast track shifted north, bringing the strengthening storm — and its heavy rain, damaging winds and dangerous surf — close to the Big Island.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Hawaii County, meaning hurricane conditions are expected somewhere on the Big Island by this weekend. A tropical storm warning was issued for Maui County Friday morning, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe. A tropical storm watch was also issued for Oahu and Kauai counties.

Lala had sustained winds of 60 mph early Friday as it moved west-northwest about 420 miles east-southeast of Hilo, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The latest forecast takes Lala near the Big Island on Saturday, raising the possibility of a rare hurricane landfall there. Even a slight shift in its path could determine whether the storm's center crosses the island or narrowly passes to its south. Regardless, Lala will track close enough to bring strong winds and heavy rain onshore.

Hawaii Gov. Josh Green declared a statewide emergency Thursday, allowing officials to activate the National Guard and access emergency funding as the state prepares for Lala.

Confidence in the exact track should improve through Friday, but there could still be changes as the storm approaches the islands and interacts with land, which can cause its center to wobble.

Landfalls on the Hawaiian islands have only happened a handful of times in the modern record. The last tropical system to make landfall was Tropical Storm Olivia in 2018, which came ashore on Maui — that island's first landfall since recordkeeping began in the 1950s. But the last landfalling hurricane was in 1992 when Category 4 Iniki hit Kauai, becoming the strongest storm to directly strike the state on record.

Extreme rainfall is Lala's most serious threat. The storm could unload 8 to 12 inches across Maui and the Big Island, with isolated totals up to 25 inches possible on the Big Island. Another 4 to 6 inches is forecast across the rest of the island chain, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches.

The Big Island will be the first to see heavy rain, beginning Friday. It will spread to Maui on Saturday and reach Lanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai by Sunday. The National Hurricane Center has warned of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain.

The Big Island is at the greatest risk of Lala's strongest winds with the storm's center forecast to pass just south of the island. Winds at that strength can down trees and power lines and cause power outages, a risk exacerbated by rain-soaked soil that makes trees easier to topple.

Lala could also push 1 to 3 feet of storm surge water above normally dry ground along parts of the Big Island's coast. Large, dangerous waves will begin reaching east-facing shores Friday and build through the weekend, bringing life-threatening surf, rip currents, coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.

In Hilo, grocery stores and gas stations have been busy as people stock up on essentials, CNN affiliate Hawaii News Now reported. Hawaii County is also offering sandbags for residents around the island.

"You got to take all the necessary precautions, right? So it's batteries. It's get your emergency kit, inform your neighbors, the kupuna (elders)," said Hawaii County Mayor Kimo Alameda. "Make sure that everybody's safe because our island's big and we have small communities and we're very connected."

County officials and the National Guard have also been discussing placing resources ahead of time in areas hard-hit by storms earlier this year, according to Hawaii News Now.

Tropical storms approaching Hawaii typically hit cooler ocean temperatures before reaching the islands, but Lala will remain over warmer waters due to an ongoing marine heatwave that extends out to California and a developing Super El Niño.

El Niño is helping fuel increased storm potential in the central Pacific this year, with warmer ocean temperatures and weaker storm-killing upper-level winds. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast an above-average central Pacific season, with five to 13 cyclones expected.

Related topics