PROVO — BYU won its first two games by a combined score of 96-3, had their first bye week, and now closes out their final game of nonconference play with a road trip to East Carolina.
This is the return trip of a home-and-home series, in which BYU hosted East Carolina in 2022, with the Pirates winning 27-24.
The programs have changed significantly in those three years, thanks to BYU earning a Power Four bid, upgrading its roster, and fixing its defense. East Carolina is just 14-18 overall and 1-4 vs. Power Four programs since the first matchup.
BYU is looking for its third straight 3-0 start and a potential Associated Press Top 25 ranking before Big 12 play starts (5:30 p.m. MDT, ESPN2).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): BYU 49.3 (36th of 68 Power 4) | East Carolina (non-AQ)
2024 season: BYU 70.0 (10th) | East Carolina (non-AQ)
2025 season: BYU 58.9 (33rd) | East Carolina (non-AQ)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected BYU to finish eighth in a wide-open Big 12 race. So far they have played as-expected, blowing out a weak FCS team and handling my projected worst Power Four team, Stanford.
The Stanford win has increased in value after the Cardinal beat Boston College on Saturday night.
East Carolina went 8-5 last year, gets a second-year head coach bonus with Blake Harrell, and was picked to finish eighth in the 14-team American Conference in their media preseason poll. They played NC State tough (24-17) then dominated their weaker opponents Coastal Carolina (38-0) and FCS Campbell (56-3).
BYU with the ball
(Rankings out of 136 FBS teams)
BYU offense: 45 points/game (14th), 7.0 yards/play (25th)
East Carolina defense: 9 points/game (11th), 4.1 yards/play (24th)
Bear Bachmeier became the first-ever true freshman to start BYU's opener, and he has handled the role well so far. Bachmeier is 24-of-38 (63.2%) for 272 yards, three touchdowns and no picks, and also punched in three rushing scores.
He has done what he's supposed to, but there have not been many pressure situations yet in the small sample size. His 10 third-down passing attempts are among the nation's fewest. East Carolina will be the toughest defense he has faced to date.
BYU has thrived in the run game so far, with LJ Martin leading the Big 12 with 120 yards/game and a high 9.3 yards/carry. The receiver room needs to step up their play as the schedule gets tougher — three of their top targets Chase Roberts, Parker Kingston, and Jojo Phillips all had drops in the Stanford game.
Those drops factored into a poor red zone conversion, and the win could have been more of a blowout. BYU had six red zone trips but only converted two into touchdowns.
East Carolina lost 10 starters off their 2024 defense, but four of their 2025 starters are worthy of All-AAC hype: defensive tackle JD Lampley, defensive end Ryheem Craig, and defensive backs Jordy Lowery and Ja'Marley Riddle. They held NC State 10 points below their scoring average and rank in the national top 10 in several key categories like points/game, yards/carry, and negative play rate.
East Carolina with the ball
(Rankings out of 136 FBS teams)
East Carolina offense: 37 points/game (41st), 6.0 yards/play (60th)
BYU defense: 1.5 points/game (1st), 2.1 yards/play (1st)
I don't care who they played. BYU's defensive performance so far has been phenomenal — just look at the stat box. They currently lead the nation in eight of my stat categories, and it does technically include a Power Four opponent (who just notched an ACC win over Boston College).
In consecutive weeks, Stanford had much more success against the BC defense — 399 yards and 30 points — compared to the 161 and 3 points that BYU held them to.
This may be the best linebacker room in BYU history with Jack Kelly and Isaiah Glasker leading the way. Both guys are deserving of All-Big 12 hype. Kelly helped spark the seven-quarter shutout streak with a blocked field goal returned for the season's first touchdown.
From the 2024 AAC leaderboard, Katin Houser is the No. 2 returning starter in QB rating, and his receiver Anthony Smith is No. 2 in yards/game. That success has
translated forward to 2025, with Houser leading the AAC in passing yards (974) and Smith second in receptions (23).
This will be the first true passing threat BYU has faced in 2025, so the "video game" numbers are an unfair expectation going forward.
Game prediction
East Carolina leads the all-time series 2-1, with a split in the 2015/2017 home-and-home and an ECU win in 2022.
BYU has the talent advantage and had an extra week to prepare for the cross-country trip. This one will be competitive, and it will be the first pressure spot for Bachmeier, but BYU will finish off a perfect nonconference slate before the wide-open Big 12 race starts.
BYU 23 | East Carolina 17
