Pick Six Previews: A statistical breakdown of BYU during its bye week

PROVO — BYU heads into the bye week with a 4-1 record after its 35-27 win over Cincinnati last Friday in Provo.

It was a special night for the BYU football program since it was the first home Power Five conference game, their first Power Five conference win, and 63,834 fans marked the largest crowd at LaVell Edwards Stadium since the 2009 Utah game.

As part of my weekly series covering the 2023 BYU season, I'll take the bye week as an opportunity to review how the Cougars rank in several of my metrics at Pick Six Previews.

Game Grader

40th of 69 Power 5 teams (compared to 50th in 2022)

Game Grader measures statistical dominance and adjusts for opponent strength. BYU finished 2022 ranked 50th, and I projected them at 48th in my preseason magazine. They have so far exceeded expectations into the top 40. Usually a 4-1 record would place higher, but the Arkansas and Cincinnati wins were within a touchdown, and BYU was outgained by 360 yards combined.

I doubt Cougar fans are bothered by that stat — all that truly matters is that the team was resilient and found ways to grind out wins. A 4-1 September is better than most could have imagined in their Power Five debut.

Offensive Percentiles

66th of 69 Power 5 teams (compared to 24th in 2022)

When the "total offense" stat is presented in yards per game, it doesn't tell the whole story: 500 yards gained against Georgia is much different than 500 yards gained against Vanderbilt. Additionally, 500 yards gained on 80 snaps is less impressive than 500 gained on 50 snaps.

Instead, my Offensive Percentiles evaluate on a per-play basis, and also adjust for opponent (defense) strength. BYU checks in among the worst in Power Five, breaking a four-year trend of elite offenses here.

The quarterback run of Zach Wilson and Jaren Hall left big shoes to fill for journeyman veteran Kedon Slovis, and he has done his part so far. Slovis has already scored 13 touchdowns and eclipsed the 11,000-yard career milestone last Friday. Injuries at the skill positions were limiting early on, and the offensive line's inability to get any run push has forced them into a pass-heavy, one-dimensional attack.

Defensive Percentiles

47th of 69 Power 5 teams (compared to 46th in 2022)

All eyes were on this side of the ball after the defensive collapse last October. Head coach Kalani Sitake made the tough decision to fire defensive coordinator Ilaisa Tuiaki during the season, but he appears to have aced the hire with former Weber State head coach Jay Hill.

While the above numbers show barely any change year-over-year, I am trusting my eyes here and can see an improved unit. The timing of this week is crucial, since the defense has been without several key playmakers like linebacker Ben Bywater, safety Talon Alfrey, and safety Micah Harper. Even lockdown corner Eddie Heckard is playing through injuries.

Look for that ranking to improve when the dust settles in December.

Offensive Line Pass Protection

17th of 69 Power 5 teams (compared to 10th in 2022)

In my preseason magazine, I graded BYU's offensive line sixth in my Big 12 unit rankings despite the loss of several starters. They have such a proven track record of offensive line development here, and so far the unit has proven me right.

The BYU offensive line is currently allowing a sack on 4% of pass attempts, which is down slightly from last year's 3%, but could be explained by less quarterback mobility when comparing Slovis to Hall.

Rushing Offense Percentiles, opponent-adjusted, per-play

69th of 69 Power 5 teams (compared to 24th in 2022)

Dead last. BYU had decades of success and had built the program on an innovative passing offense. Even if their formula remains pass-first, a competent run game is needed to compete at the Power Five level.

The top three rushers departed in the offseason and UNLV transfer Aiden Robbins has mustered only 29 yards, while Parker Kingston's fumble led to a touchdown in the Kansas loss. Freshman LJ Martin has been the workhorse back so far, getting 70% of the running back carries. But the run game overall — line included — needs serious improvement.

Rushing Defense Percentiles, opponent-adjusted, per-play

65th of 69 Power 5 teams (compared to 43rd in 2022)

Run the ball, stop the run? The old-fashion football mantra is non-existent so far for BYU in 2023. While the rushing offense is dead last, the rushing defense is in the bottom five of my opponent-adjusted metric.

Opponent QB Rating (defense)

57th of 133 FBS teams (compared to 112th in 2022)

I prefer this stat when discussing passing defense because it puts the stats into a per-play perspective. Giving up 300 passing yards may sound below-average, but against an Air Raid offense that attempts 60 passes that game, it becomes impressive.

Here, in the all-encompassing pass defense measure, BYU has made significant progress from last year, moving from bottom 20 to the top half of FBS. Keep in mind, the Cougars have done so without freshman All-America Harper and fellow starting safety Alfrey.

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