Pick Six Previews: Utah grinds out another tight win thanks to defense

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah opened up Pac-12 play with a 14-7 win over No. 22 UCLA. It was one of six ranked matchups Saturday, the most of any single day since 2006; and in this one, Utah's defense played a perfect game.

On the very first play from scrimmage, Karene Reid jumped a pass and ran it back for a touchdown — a fitting start considering Utah's claim to the "Pick Six U" title with the nation's longest active streak of seasons with a pick six (20). The defense held UCLA out of the end zone, and off the scoreboard completely, until the final four minutes after the Bruins converted a miracle fourth-and-long to extend the game.

Utah held a 14-7 lead and UCLA had one final chance for a last-minute drive, but instead it was one final series of defensive dominance. The last four plays were a sack, sack, incomplete pass, sack.

After the game, head coach Kyle Whittingham aptly called it a "suffocating" defense. If not for that late score, Utah was on pace to pitch UCLA head coach Chip Kelly his first shutout of his head coaching career (176 total games in college and pro). Morgan Scalley earned "coordinator of the week" honors from Pick Six Previews, and Utah clinched its first 4-0 start to a season since 2017.

The Utes face another ranked Pac-12 opponent this week, except this time it is on the road and under the Friday night lights in Corvallis against No. 19 Oregon State (7 p.m. MDT, FS1)

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2020-22): Utah 66.9 (6th) | Oregon State 52.8 (33rd of 69 Power Five)
2022 season: Utah 69.2 (10th) | Oregon State 63.2 (18th of 69 Power Five)
2023 season: Utah (15th) | Oregon State (28th of 69 Power Five)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. Utah stacked another national top 10 finish last year; and thanks to the high amount of returning production, program-record recruiting classes, and proven coaching staff, they earned a No. 8 rank in my 2023 preseason magazine.

Utah's 4-0 start has been impressive enough, even at face value: three Power Five wins and two against ranked teams. But what's even more impressive is that they have survived with so many starters injured and stuck on the sidelines. It's an injury run so bad, Whittingham said he's "never seen anything like it."

Utah checks in at No. 15 in my 2023 Game Grader with several highly-ranked tests still remaining on the schedule.

Jonathan Smith has done a tremendous job building Oregon State into a winner. In the earlier years of Pick Six Previews, Oregon State was an easy pick to pencil in at the bottom of the Pac-12 North Division, but Smith used a similar formula to Utah and has changed the whole culture in Corvallis. With player development, player retention, a cohesive staff, a powerful offensive line, and schemes that cater to the roster personnel, Oregon State posted its first 10-win season in 15 years.

The Beavers enter Friday night with a 3-1 record, with an FCS win, two non-AQ wins, and a loss to Washington State last weekend.

Oregon State with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Oregon State offense: 19th of 69 Power Five (overall), 33rd passing, 15th rushing
Utah defense: 7th of 69 Power Five (overall), 10th passing, 1st rushing

Oregon State was one of the most one-dimensional offenses in 2022, as their lack of a pass game forced them to double down on their rushing attack. Even though opposing defenses knew it was run-heavy, Oregon State still had success running the ball — and famously erased a 21-point deficit against Oregon with only four pass attempts.

This offseason, though, they landed one of the top transfer quarterbacks in the country, as former Clemson starter DJ Uiagalelei chose Oregon State. So far, Uiagalelei is in the bottom-half of the Pac-12 in every passing stat.

Not shown in the stats above is the Oregon State offensive line's pass protection numbers. They are allowing a sack on just 3% of pass plays, which is good for a top 10 mark in all of Power Five. Beavers fans and media are calling it their best offensive line in school history, and it will be strength on strength as they attempt to block "Sack Lake City." Utah's pass rush was relentless against UCLA (seven sacks), and has been all season (14 sacks). I expect them to win this trench battle.

Oregon State has an all-conference runner in the backfield in Damien Martinez, but Utah's front seven has already proved itself by containing Florida's running back pair, along with UCLA's top five rushing attack. Utah is ranked No. 1 in Power Five in my opponent-adjusted rushing defense metric.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense (2023): 59th of 69 Power Five (overall), 51st passing, 39th rushing
Oregon State defense (2023): 48th of 69 Power Five (overall), 61st passing, 12th rushing

Cam Rising watch enters Week 5, and we are still unsure about the timeline of the two-time conference champion quarterback's return. Reports last week indicated a return — he has been practicing for weeks — but Saturday it was redshirt freshman Nate Johnson who started under center.

Oregon State had one of the league's best defenses last year but had to replace six starters, including all three who earned All-Pac 12 honors last year. Both starting inside backers departed, as well as their star defensive backs. This defensive turnover was a key reason why I placed them outside of the preseason top 25. On Saturday, Washington State hit on explosive passing plays all game and raced to a 35-14 lead, and eventually gained 528 yards on the Beaver defense.

I expect more open lanes for the Utah receivers this week, and for the Utah passing game to make some progress — with or without Rising.

Game prediction

Utah finishes off the toughest September schedule in America in what will be four Power Five games in five weeks. At full strength, this would be a no-brainer, but Utah's severe injury issues have become a compounding problem. That attrition, and its struggling offense, bring this game more into question, but I still like my preseason forecast of a Utah-Washington Pac-12 title game.

Utah grinds out another tight win thanks to its elite defense.

Utah 20 | Oregon State 17

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