Pick Six Previews: Utah's 3-peat campaign begins with 'revenge' game against UCLA

SALT LAKE CITY — After back-to-back Power Five challenges to start the season, Utah returned to Salt Lake to complete a perfect 3-0 nonconference slate.

Utah defeated Weber State — a top 10 team from the FCS ranks — in a 31-7 win, with an edge of over 300 yards, and a ball control of 40 minutes to just 20 for Weber State.

Nate Johnson got his first career start at quarterback after leading a resilient fourth quarter comeback at Baylor the week prior. Johnson distributed the ball around to six different receivers, posted a clean 13-of-21 passing day for 193 yards and a passing touchdown, and also led the team in rushing.

The Utah defense handcuffed Weber State to just 127 total yards and held the leading FCS rusher to 80 yards below his average. Lander Barton scored on a pick six to continue Utah's legendary 20-year streak as "Pick Six U."

I projected Utah to win by 25 — they won by 24 — and everything else about this one went as expected.

With an undefeated record in hand, No. 11 Utah now shifts its focus to the Pac-12 conference race, and their three-peat campaign. It all starts Saturday at Rice-Eccles Stadium (1:30 p.m. MDT, FOX) in a ranked matchup — and revenge spot — against No. 22 UCLA.

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2020-22): Utah 66.9 (6th) | UCLA 61.2 (15th of 69 Power Five)
2022 season: Utah 69.2 (10th) | UCLA 60.9 (20th of 69 Power Five)
2023 season: Utah (10th ) | UCLA (19th of 69 Power Five)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. Utah stacked another national top 10 finish last year, and thanks to the high amount of returning production, program-record recruiting classes, and proven coaching staff, they earned a No. 8 rank in my 2023 preseason magazine.

Utah's 3-0 start has kept them in the top 10 of my 2023 Game Grader rankings. With conference play starting Saturday, this fourth data point will shift the rankings significantly.

It took a few seasons to build, but Chip Kelly has developed a consistent winner at UCLA. Given their prime location and proximity to Southern California bluechip recruits, UCLA has historically been a top recruiter; however, Kelly took a different approach. He has consistently hit on impact starters from the transfer portal and has built a dominant rushing attack.

UCLA started the season 3-0, with blowout wins over non-AQ Coastal Carolina and San Diego State, as well as FCS North Carolina Central.

UCLA with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

UCLA offense: 12th of 69 Power Five (overall), 4th passing, 16th rushing
Utah defense: 28th of 69 Power Five (overall), 22nd passing, 3rd rushing

UCLA's offensive line ranked No. 1 nationally in my OL Run Push metric last season to continue a recent trend of elite line play; however, off of that top unit, three starters departed this offseason, and Kelly is, again, patching up the line with transfers. The physical TJ Harden returns as the lead back, and the staff added MAC rushing champ Carson Steele from Ball State.

The biggest storyline is at quarterback, where five-star true freshman Dante Moore already looks poised beyond his years, and now has two starts under his belt. Moore makes decisive reads and gets the ball out quickly. In the unquestioned "QB conference" of 2023, he is already up at No. 3 in QB Rating and only trailing Washington's Michael Penix Jr. and USC's Caleb Williams.

Moore hasn't seen a defense like Utah yet.

Morgan Scalley's squad has allowed just 10.3 points per game, which is good for ninth nationally. They are one of just three teams in the top 25 (scoring defense) to face multiple Power Five opponents.

Even with some injury issues, Utah checks in with the No. 3 rushing defense in Power Five, per my opponent-adjusted metrics. Look for the front seven to cause some disruption — both in pass pressure and in run fits — and to set UCLA back behind the chains. They held the SEC passing leader to just 11 points in a win that continues to appreciate in value.

Utah is now only one of four teams with a win over a currently ranked team.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense (2023): 44th of 69 Power Five (overall), 55th passing, 30th rushing
UCLA defense (2023): 7th of 69 Power Five (overall), 9th passing, 4th rushing

Have you heard the news? Apparently there is a Bad Moon Rising in Salt Lake City.

Reports indicate that two-time Pac-12 champion quarterback Cam Rising is set to return Saturday after rehabbing nine months from his ACL injury in the Rose Bowl. Rising adds an element to the pass game that has been missing in the three games so far — Utah is just 55th of 69 teams in Power Five in my opponent-adjusted passing metric.

You can throw that stat out the window if Rising is back on the field and near 100% healthy. Even without Rising, the offense has been efficient enough and has benefitted from Nate Johnson's speed from the quarterback spot.

The Utah power rushing attack will be tested by a fiery UCLA front that ranks in the top 10 of virtually every stat — yards per carry, tackles for loss, negative play rate, sacks, etc. Laiatu Latu earned first team All-Pac 12 honors last year and looks even more dominant in 2023. Given UCLA's strength up front — and youth in the secondary — Utah may shift the strategy more to the outsides and the vertical pass game.

Game prediction

Utah begins its quest for a three-peat with a revenge game against UCLA.

It's still an injured roster, and head coach Kyle Whittingham said he's "never seen anything like it," but the potential return of Rising could be a game-changer. UCLA may have the better stat profile so far, but Utah has two Power Five wins, while the Bruins have faced weaker competition.

Utah 24 | UCLA 21

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