Pick Six Previews: Wrong team favored in Vegas? Cougars look like team to upset Irish

PROVO — BYU rounded out September with another win over a former Mountain West opponent, this time for the Old Wagon Wheel.

BYU beat Utah State 38-26, and with their future games canceled due to BYU's move to the Big 12, it appears the wheel will remain in Provo for the foreseeable future. It seems fitting given BYU's 28-5 record in the series in the past 40 years.

The Cougars had to fight for this victory, though. BYU opened with a slow start and allowed 26-point underdog Utah State to dominate the time of possession (19 minutes to 5), first downs (14 to 2), and rushing yards (141 to negative 16) near halftime. It was BYU's worst rushing total in a half since the 1999 Motor City Bowl.

Credit BYU for settling in for a productive second half. Miles Davis, again, provided a spark in the run game, Jaren Hall posted his ninth straight 250+ yard passing game, and the Cougars outscored the Aggies 21-9 down the stretch.

The Cougars carry a 4-1 record and No. 16 national rank into October and now face a season-defining two-game span against Power Five opponents. Before hosting Arkansas on Oct. 15, BYU travels to Las Vegas for a neutral-site matchup with Notre Dame, the No. 6 winningest program over the past five years.

Notre Dame and Arkansas both reached the AP Top 10 at various points throughout the season, and while neither are currently ranked, they both hold enough national respect to make these both valuable opportunities for BYU.

BYU is on a 7-2 run against the Power Five since the start of the 2021 season; and with their Big 12 move on the horizon, these are two important spotlight games for the program.

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-Year Average 2019-21: BYU 61.0 (16th of 66 Power Five) | Notre Dame 70.6 (6th)
2021 Season: BYU 58.1 (24th) | Notre Dame 67.5 (9th)
2022 Season: BYU 60.3 (26th) | Notre Dame 50.0 (39th)

The Utah State win added to the win column, but the tight margin and low opponent rating keep BYU at No. 26 in 2022 Game Grader.

Notre Dame opened with a tight battle at Ohio State and slowed the nation's No. 1 offense to 2.3 yards per play below their season average. To put that in context, it's a main reason why Notre Dame is currently rated No. 5 in my Defense Grader so far this season.

In total, the decisive (+210 yards) win over North Carolina nets out with the upset loss to non-AQ Marshall, and Notre Dame checks in at a middle-of-the-pack No. 39 in 2022 Game Grader.

Notre Dame with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Notre Dame Offense: 46th of 66 Power Five
BYU Defense: 35th of 66 Power Five

Notre Dame's offensive identity was already run-first to begin with. They were poised to have one of the nation's top offensive lines and a new dual-threat quarterback to burn defenses. But then their two best receivers were lost for the season, and said quarterback, Tyler Buchner, was lost for the year.

Their one-dimensional offense has had to double down on the run game. Notre Dame runs the ball on 60% of offensive snaps, which may not sound unbalanced, but is actually one of the most run-heavy play-calling ratios in the nation. The issue is that their per-carry average is far below average, checking in at just No. 87 nationally.

BYU has had its own struggles stopping the run, and normally you'd expect a typical Notre Dame offense to exploit that. Not the case here.

At worst, these two relative "weaknesses" will cancel out. New quarterback Drew Pyne has quietly played some solid football in his two starts — 71% completion and a perfect 5-0 touchdown to pick ratio — but those have come against Cal and North Carolina, who rank No. 51 and No. 63 (of 66), respectively, in my Offense Grader. BYU will be his toughest challenge yet.

BYU with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

BYU Offense: 20th of 66 Power 5
Notre Dame Defense: 5th of 66 Power Five

That Ohio State performance is inflating Notre Dame's overall defensive grade, and when you look at their per-carry (rushing) and opponent QB Rating (passing), their ranks fall to average or below average.

BYU's best strength is its pass game, with Hall playing near-perfect football; and one of the school's deepest receiving corps has stepped up one-by-one as the season has progressed. This passing attack matches up against the 97th rated pass defense in America.

The BYU rushing attack is still a concern, but there is enough talent on that offensive line that I am still expecting it to eventually play to the high expectations. For BYU's sake, hopefully that happens on the front end of October and not the back half.

Game prediction

The more I researched this matchup, the more my prediction shifted in BYU's direction. At first impression, Notre Dame's usual "run the ball, stop the run" would pose serious challenges to BYU. But after reviewing the numbers, and consulting my Game Grader, it appears the wrong team is favored. Look for Hall and BYU's passing offense to win this one late in the game.

No. 16 BYU 27 | Notre Dame 24

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