Pick Six Previews: A look into Utah's road trip to SEC country (+ game prediction)

SALT LAKE CITY — Fresh off their highest preseason ranking in school history, No. 7 Utah is dealt one of the toughest tests of the opening weekend.

In a rare Pac-12 vs. SEC matchup, the Utes travel down to Florida for a night game in The Swamp. Although Florida is unranked, they recruit at a top-10 level and have a roster packed with NFL prospects.

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2019-21): Utah 68.9 (7th) | Florida 65.2 (10th)

2021 Season: Utah 69.5 (7th) | Florida 53.6 (31st)

2022 Season: N/A

Despite Florida's 6-7 record last year, the Game Grader formula still placed them 31st out of the 66 Power Five programs. It was really a tale of two seasons, as Florida took eventual SEC champion Alabama to the wire and started 4-2 with a top-20 ranking, but then lost five of their final six FBS games. FCS Samford dropped 52 points on their defense and the Dan Mullen era ended in a meltdown.

Florida with the ball

Quarterback Anthony Richardson takes over as the full-time starter after splitting reps with Emory Jones last season. Richardson is possibly the fastest quarterback in America and can score from anywhere on the field.

His dynamic scrambling ability may require additional resources from the Utes defense, with a spy or more zone coverage. Richardson has some room for improvement in the pass game after a 59% completion rate and 6-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season.

Florida's offensive line posted high grades in both my Run Push and Pass Protection metrics in 2021. Three starters return, along with O'Cyrus Torrence, who transferred in from Louisiana-Lafayette with new head coach Billy Napier. The coaching transition and new schemes make the offensive line harder to forecast, at least right away in the season opener.

A key positional matchup will be Florida's wide receivers against Utah's secondary. In the Rose Bowl, Utah's corner depth was thin; and while Florida doesn't have the same first-round firepower of Ohio State's receiver group, they have plenty of weapons.

The top receiver of 2021, Jacob Copeland, transferred out of Florida to Maryland, but the Gators added Arizona State's yardage leader in Ricky Pearsall. Justin Shorter is a solid possession receiver who finished with five 50+ yard games over the second half of the season, and Xzavier Henderson has a top-100 billing and brings a vertical threat.

Napier's offense at Louisiana operated primarily out of 11 personnel, or one back and one tight end. They were mostly out of shotgun, pistol, and had significantly less quarterback-designed runs than Mullen's offense. We'll see how rigid that is, considering Richardson's highlight ability.

Rose Bowl experience prepared Utes for Week 1 matchup against Florida

In case you haven't heard, Utah has a big game against an SEC opponent to open up the season.

Utah with the ball

Utah's 2021 offensive line ranked No. 1 in my Run Push metric, No. 2 in Pass Protection, and returns three starters from that group. The stable of running backs drew the rare four-way "OR" on the depth chart and features a headliner in touchdown-machine Tavion Thomas and team leader Micah Bernard.

I expect Utah to have success in the run game, as Florida's defensive line has youth at the two spots around potential first-round pick Gervon Dexter.

Cameron Rising was the season-changer at quarterback after the team started 1-2 without him; the team ranked No. 4 nationally in Game Grader with him as the starter.

After a few down seasons, Florida's secondary is getting stronger and is experienced. It will be a challenge for the Utah receivers to gain separation, but the tight end duo could be the game-changer. Both of Utah's tight ends, Brant Kuithe and Dalton Kincaid, placed on my preseason All-Pac-12 teams, with Kuithe earning a fourth team All-America spot.

Schematically, new defensive coordinator Patrick Toney is off of the Ron Roberts coaching tree (along with Baylor's Dave Aranda) in how they try to confuse quarterbacks. They disguise blitzes, often drop an end or edge player back into coverage, and replace him with a rusher from the linebacker or safety level.

Florida certainly has the athletes for this complex scheme, but this is the season opener, and we'll see how quickly they installed everything in spring ball and fall camp.

Game prediction

Napier's first move was to hire an "army of staffers" to bolster the operations and recruiting. Their official team program photo is striking, as they take up almost an entire stadium section. I think it's a matter of time before Napier has Florida harnessing the elite in-state high school talent and returning to the national top 5 in recruiting. The medium- and long-term outlooks are strong.

But Utah catches them in the opening game of the transition season, which is also Napier's first Power Five game as a head coach. Conversely, Utah brings in all the coach continuity, experience, confidence and team identity. I picked Utah to not only win the Pac-12 but also to make the 2022 playoff. While this opener will be a tough test, look for Utah to leave SEC country with a statement victory.

No. 7 Utah (-2.5) 27 | Florida 20

P.S. I am not buying "Humidity-Gate." National pundits are using the Gainesville humidity as the reason to pick against Utah. This reminds me of when the media picked Florida to beat Nebraska in the 1995 national title, due solely to the game being played on grass and not turf. They were dead wrong, and Nebraska rolled up the biggest title game blowout in college football history and is considered the best team ever.

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