Odds to win Pac-12 championship: Our look at the numbers, the schedules and the value plays

If the oddsmakers are right, there won't be much parity across Pac-12 divisions next season.

Four of the top-five betting favorites to win the conference championship are from the South, according to recently-released odds from @betonline_ag.

Among the North contingent, only Oregon is given a strong chance.

As you'll see below, the Hotline disagrees with the numbers.

(Teams listed in order of lowest to highest odds. Wagering advice for entertainment purposes only.)

USC

Odds to win the Pac-12: 2-to-1

Home: Arizona State, Washington State, Cal, Colorado

Road: Stanford, Oregon State, Utah, Arizona, UCLA

Misses: Oregon, Washington

Comment: It's not a stretch to cast USC as the betting favorite with quarterback Caleb Williams in control of the offense and no Ducks or Huskies on the schedule. But at close to even money — and in the same division as the defending conference champions — the Trojans stand as a poor value pick. We might be interested at 4-to-1, but nothing less.

Oregon

Odds: 11-to-5

Home: Stanford, UCLA, Washington, Utah

Road: Washington State, Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Oregon State

Misses: USC, Arizona State

Comment: The Ducks are essentially 2-to-1 to win the conference, same as USC. Given the uncertainty with their coaching staff and quarterback play — not to mention their inability to beat Stanford when it matters — the risks far outweigh the reward (same as USC). Give us a higher number, and we'd consider it.

Utah

Odds: 5-to-1

Home: Oregon State, USC, Arizona, Stanford

Road: Arizona State, UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Colorado

Misses: Cal, Washington

Comment: Worth noting that the odds are designed to reflect the tendencies of the betting public, and the public likes big brands (USC and Oregon) — even if that means the defending champs, with their loaded roster and masterclass coach, are relegated to third. But make no mistake: At 5-to-1, the Utes are the best bet on the board.

Arizona State

Odds: 8.5-to-1

Home: Utah, Washington, UCLA, Oregon State

Road: Colorado, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Arizona

Misses: Cal, Oregon

Comment: Those are mighty short odds for a team smacked around by attrition (players and coaches), breaking in a new quarterback and facing the NCAA hammer. If we're being honest, it says a lot about the state of Pac-12 football that the Sun Devils could be viewed as one of the favorites — and what it says isn't flattering.

UCLA

Odds: 8.5-to-1

Home: Washington, Utah, Stanford, Arizona, USC

Road: Colorado, Oregon, Arizona State, Cal

Misses: Washington State, Oregon State

Comment: Given their experience at quarterback (Dorian Thompson-Robinson), the overall program stability and a manageable schedule — only four road games; Utah and USC at home — the Bruins aren't a bad bet with 8.5-to-1 odds. Without question, they stand as a better value play than either USC or ASU.

Washington

Odds: 11-to-1

Home: Stanford, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado

Road: UCLA, Arizona State, Cal, Oregon, Washington State

Misses: Utah, USC

Comment: The Huskies would be a poor bet at 20-to-1, much less the listed number, except for the schedule rotation: They don't play Utah or USC, which confers a significant strength-of-schedule advantage over every other team in the North. And one game could make all the difference. Given that, the Huskies aren't an awful bet.

Washington State

Odds: 33-to-1

Home: Oregon, Cal, Utah, Arizona State, Washington

Road: USC, Oregon State, Stanford, Arizona

Misses: UCLA, Colorado

Comment: If Utah is the best bet on the board, the Cougars are a close second. We don't consider them a top-tier favorite like Oregon, Utah and USC, but they are clearly on the next level — far more viable as a potential champion than 33-to-1 would make them appear. But again, small brands usually have long odds.

Oregon State

Odds: 40-to-1

Home: USC, Washington State, Colorado, Cal, Oregon

Road: Utah, Stanford, Washington, Arizona State

Misses: UCLA, Arizona

Comment: Shouldn't the Beavers be enticing with 40-to-1 odds if WSU is a quality value at 33-to-1? Not necessarily. The Cougars have advantages with their roster and schedule. The head-to-head winner would have an obvious edge in pursuit of the title, and not only is the game in Pullman, but WSU has won eight in a row in the series.

California

Odds: 66-to-1

Home: Arizona, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA

Road: Washington State, Colorado, USC, Oregon State

Misses: Arizona State, Utah

Comment: It didn't take us that long to envision a scenario in which the Bears take the North. After all, they beat Oregon in Berkeley two years ago, the Huskies are trending down and Utah is nowhere to be found. We'd set the odds of Cal winning the division at 15-to-1. The problem is that final step, with Utah (or USC) waiting in Las Vegas. Worth a nickel.

Stanford

Odds: 80-to-1

Home: USC, Oregon State, Arizona State, Washington State

Road: Oregon, Washington, Utah, Cal, UCLA

Misses: Arizona, Colorado

Comment: Here's an instance of odds being too low. We wouldn't place a nickel on the Cardinal at 80-to-1, not with a wobbly defense and schedule from hell. While Washington catches a break by missing Utah and USC, Stanford is the only team in the North that doesn't face either Arizona or Colorado. And that road schedule? Yikes.

Colorado

Odds: 200-to-1

Home: UCLA, Cal, Arizona State, Oregon, Utah

Road: Arizona, Oregon State, USC, Washington

Misses: Stanford, Washington State

Comment: The Buffaloes were 100-to-1 to win the Pac-12 back in 2016, when they rose from nowhere to claim the South (but lost in the title game). Given the personnel and the strength atop the division, we would need something in the 500-to-1 range to get comfortable with a wager on CU this fall. The roster isn't what it was in '16.

Arizona

Odds: 500-to-1

Home: Colorado, USC, Oregon, Washington State, Arizona State

Road: Cal, Washington, Utah, UCLA

Misses: Stanford, Oregon State

Comment: Speaking of 500-to-1 … The Wildcats are worth a dime at this number, especially if you give them a prayer of a chance of winning in Salt Lake City. Quarterback Jayden de Laura came within a game of taking the North title last year with WSU, so the Wildcats have a foundation for high-level success at the most important position.

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